2026 NFL MVP Odds: Joe Burrow Favored, Jordan Love Mid-Tier, Bo Nix Longshot Analysis

The race for the 2026 NFL MVP award is heating up early, with several young quarterbacks positioned for big seasons. Importantly, fans and bettors are already watching the shifting 2026 NFL MVP odds closely as the preseason unfolds.

Joe Burrow leads the odds at +900 as the clear favorite. Meanwhile, Jordan Love sits in the mid-tier at +1600 and Bo Nix offers longshot value at +3000. Here’s a closer look at why these three QBs stand out for MVP consideration heading into the 2026 season. In addition, here’s what it could mean for 2026 NFL MVP odds.

Joe Burrow has been outstanding since entering the NFL in 2020. He owns a strong 3:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and the third-highest career passer rating in league history at 101.1. The main knock against him remains availability—he has played a full season in only three of his six years.

In 2024, his most recent full season, Burrow finished fourth in MVP voting after throwing for nearly 5,000 yards and accounting for 45 total touchdowns against just 9 interceptions. That production closely mirrors Matthew Stafford’s 2025 MVP campaign.

Looking ahead to 2026, the Cincinnati Bengals again feature one of the league’s most explosive offenses. Burrow is backed by the highest-paid wide receiver duo in NFL history in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. If the Bengals keep their franchise quarterback healthy, they have a strong chance to exceed their 9.5 win total. In that scenario, expect Burrow to approach 5,000 yards, 40+ touchdowns, and single-digit interceptions. These numbers would put him firmly in the MVP conversation. Notably, these performances are central to the 2026 NFL MVP odds projections.

Jordan Love has quietly posted three strong seasons to begin his career. He holds a solid 2.6:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 96.8 passer rating, ranking him 12th in NFL history.

The Green Bay Packers have traditionally leaned heavily on the run, ranking 27th and 30th in pass attempts over the past two seasons. With an aging Josh Jacobs and a loaded NFC North, Love will likely be asked to shoulder more of the offensive load in his fourth year as the starter. If Green Bay simply increases its passing volume to league average, and Love maintains his efficiency, he could post MVP-caliber numbers: 4,500+ yards, 35+ touchdowns, and 12 or fewer interceptions.

A talented group of pass-catchers—including Tucker Kraft, Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, and Matthew Golden—gives Love the supporting cast needed for a longshot MVP push. He currently ranks 10th in overall MVP odds. As a result, bettors looking to capitalize on 2026 NFL MVP odds may consider Love as a value pick.

Volume is the biggest reason Bo Nix has a realistic path to MVP-level production. As a rookie he ranked sixth in total pass attempts. In his second season, he threw the ball more than any other quarterback in the NFL. He did this after earning greater trust from head coach Sean Payton.

Nix enters his third year with the 16th-best odds to win MVP. Few other quarterbacks combine high passing volume with a chance to play on a contending team. That team is capable of highlighting strong quarterback play. The Denver Broncos won 14 games last season. If they battle for the AFC West title again and Nix improves his efficiency, there is clear betting value here.

The addition of Jaylen Waddle further strengthens the receiving corps. Meanwhile, Nix’s dual-threat ability (nine rushing touchdowns over the past two seasons) adds another dimension that could boost his overall production.

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