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NFL FREE BET | SEPT 10TH | Jags vs. Colts

ASA FREE NFL PREDICTION on the Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts, Sunday Sept 10th 2023

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS TEAM TOTAL – UNDER 20.5 POINTS

The Colts offense is in trouble! They are starting rookie QB Richardson out of Florida who only started 13 games with the Gators. It would be much easier for Richardson if he had RB Taylor in the backfield to take pressure off the passing game. Taylor led the league in rushing yards in 2021 but demanded a trade before the season and is now on the PUP list and out for four games. Indianapolis averaged just 17PPG last season which ranked 30th in the league. On average, it took them 18.3 yards gained to score 1-point which was also 30th. The Colts lacked explosiveness too with an offense that averaged only 4.8-Yards Per Play which was again 30th. The Jags made huge strides defensively last season allowing just 21.4PPG compared to 26.9PPG they gave up the season before. Jacksonville allowed 13.1-Yards per Point in 2021 (30th) and improved to 16.4-Yards Per Point allowed in 2022. It is going to be a long season for the Colts and we don’t see them scoring more than 20-points in this opener.

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AFC East betting prediction | NY Jets Total Wins

AFC EAST

NFL WIN TOTAL – NY JETS UNDER 9.5 +140

Clearly the big offseason acquisition by the Jets was QB Aaron Rodgers which has New York in a frenzy and anointed as a Super Bowl contender. The reality is that this team had a win total a year ago of 5.5 which they surpassed with 7 wins in 2022-23. Of those 7 wins a year ago, only three came against a team that finished the regular season with a winning record. New York was VERY good defensively a season ago finishing 5th in total DVOA after facing eleven teams that ranked in the top half of the league in offensive DVOA. Rodgers numbers fell off last season in Green Bay with his worst career QBR of 39.3 and his lowest total passing yards in a season going back to 2013. His 6.8- yards per pass attempt was his second lowest average going back to 2006 and he threw 12 INT’s which is the second most of his career. We also can’t ignore Rodger’s age (39) and let’s face it; the Jets are one play away from having Zach Wilson as their starting QB. The biggest factor that will impact the Jets season is their schedule which is one of, if not the toughest in the NFL. New York must face the rest of the AFC East twice along with the AFC West and NFC East. They also get the Browns, Falcons and Texans who will be better this season than they were a year ago. The value in the number has us on the UNDER here.

OTHER JETS BETTING OPTIONS:

·         Jets to NOT make the Playoffs +110

·         RB Breece Hall OVER 5.5 RUSHING TOUCHDOWNS – *Only if Dalvin Cook is NOT added to the Jets roster* – Hall had 4 rushing TD’s a season ago in only 7 games. NY will employ a West Coast offense that features a strong rushing philosophy.

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NFL Player Props Oct 23rd – ASA

Below are three NFL player props for Sunday, October 23rd – By ASAwins

Cleveland Browns – David Njoku Over 37.5 Rec Yards (-114)

We are going “back to the well”, riding Njoku once more this week. He has had 58 or more yards in his last four games while commanding at least six targets during each contest. Baltimore ranks 28th in passing yards allowed per game which should give way for Njoku to once again surpass his low yardage projection set by oddsmakers. Until we see his target share decline, or oddsmakers boost his yardage total, Cleveland’s versatile TE will remain an intriguing option.

Seattle Seahawks – Geno Smith Under .5 INTs (+110)

Seattle has been one of the few NFL teams to actually surpass offensive expectations to start the year. Thought to have one of the worst offenses entering 2022, Geno Smith has led the Seahawks to a top 10 offense in points scored. Smith is playing the best football of his career, with a 9/2 TD/INT ratio and a 108.1 passer rating. With only 2 picks so far this year, plus money on Geno to have another clean game holds a lot of value.  

Atlanta Falcons – Olamide Zaccheaus Over 31.5 Rec Yards (-114)

Zaccheaus has been a quiet but vital part of the Falcons surprising 3-3 start. Despite Marcus Mariota’s lack of passing ability, he has connected with Zaccheaus at least twice every single game, usually for chunk plays. In 5 of their 6 games, Olamide has one catch of at least 20 or more yards, also surpassing 38 yards in all of those 5 games. With the few looks Zaccheaus gets, he is extremely efficient, catching 89% of his targets. This trend should continue in a high scoring matchup with the Bengals. 

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ASA Detroit Lions Wins prediction – 2022

Be sure to check out all the winning options ASA has to offer you this football season. Let over 60 combined years of handicapping experience work for you this year. MORE INFO HERE…

ASA – OVER 6.5 WINS Detroit Lions 2022

The schedule is much easier this season ranking 23rd overall – last season they played one of the tougher schedules in the league and only won 3 games. The Lions start with a relatively easy slate and winnable games versus Philly and Washington at home, then go to Minnesota, then host Seattle who lost QB Wilson and is in for a down season. Detroit could realistically be 2-2, 3-1 or maybe even 4-0 at this point of the season. They also have winnable games versus: Miami (9-8), the Bears (twice) at the Giants, Jacksonville, Minnesota again, the Jets and Panthers who had a combined 53 wins last season.

The Lions should be much better offensively with the addition of WR’s St Brown and DJ Chark. They feature a solid running back duo of Swift and Williams and QB Goff should be much better in year two under Dan Campbell.

The team lost two starting offensive linemen to injury early on in Taylor Decker and Frank Ragnow but had a top 5-win rate at the line of scrimmage when all five starters were healthy. Other injuries took their toll as they lost receivers Quintez Cephus and Tyrell Williams, who were both projected as starters. Defensively the secondary was depleted due to injuries to Jeff Okudah and Ifeatu Melifonwu.

Detroit lost six one possession games last season, including three games on last second field goals by the opposing team. The fact that they were 11-6 ATS tells us they were undervalued last season and should make a big step forward this season.

Last season Statistics

Offense
Season StatsRank
Total Yards322.622
Passing Yards211.618
Rushing Yards110.919
Points Scored19.125
Turnovers2319
Defense
Season StatsRank
Total Yards379.829
Passing Yards244.724
Rushing Yards135.128
Points Scored27.531
Takeaway1919
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ASA – NFL Hall of Fame Game – Aug 4, 2022

ASA’s NFL PRE-SEASON HALL OF FAME GAME PREVIEW

LINE – Opened Las Vegas -1 and has been bet up to -2.5.  Total opened 33.5 and has been pushed down to 30.5

JACKSONVILLE JAGUAR NOTES – Starting QB Trevor Lawrence and back up Beathard will not play in this game.  3rd stringer Jake Luton, who has not taken a snap since 2020, will get the start.  Luton played some in Jacksonville’s 1-15 season in 2020 and finished the year with 2 TD’s and 6 interceptions.  He was then cut by the Jags and spent most of last season on Seattle’s practice squad.  Once he exits rookie Kyle Sloter from Northern Colorado will get the rest of the snaps so not much experience at QB for Jacksonville in this game.  The Jags will also be without their top 2 RB’s in this game, Etienne and Robinson.  Jacksonville was a disaster last year under head coach Urban Meyer who treated his players like college kids and had very little respect in the locker room.  They went 3-14 last year and had the worst point differential in the NFL at -204.  We expect a much improved Jacksonville squad and that’s what the oddsmakers feel as well with their win total set at 6.5 after just 3 wins last year.  They will take the field with a new head coach Doug Pederson who had solid success as Philadelphia’s head man, including a Super Bowl win in the 2017/18 season.  We think Pederson, who has been very good with QB’s, will do wonders for Lawrence this season.  Look for his numbers to improve drastically.  As far as the pre-season is concerned, Pederson has an 8-8 overall record as a head coach but in his first year at the helm for the Eagles he was 4-0 in NFLX telling us he may put some extra emphasis on winning in his first year in Florida.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS NOTES – In this NFLX game specifically, the Raiders should have the edge at QB.  No announcement yet on whether starter Derek Carr will play but his back ups are fairly experienced.  Nick Mullens has made a number of NFL starts in his career and has attempted over 600 passes.  Jarrett Stidham will also play and started a few games for the Patriots back in 2020.  Like the Jags, the Raiders also have a new head coach in Josh McDaniels, who has 2 years of head coaching experience with the Broncos in 2009 & 2010.  The Raiders were 10-7 last year and made the playoffs but their numbers didn’t support a team with that type of success.  They actually had a negative point differential of -65 which was 4th worst in the AFC despite their 10 win season.  Seven of their ten wins were by 4 points or fewer or in OT.  The Raiders actually were a perfect 4-0 in overtime games last season.  By our metrics they were probably closer to a .500 type team rather than a playoff squad.  McDaniels is a solid offensive mind who has always adapted very well to his QB strengths be it Tom Brady, Cam Newton, or Mac Jones.  The offense has added a few key pieces including GB WR Davante Adams and QB Carr is one of the underrated signal callers in the league.  The Raiders should be very good on that side of the ball.  In regards to the pre-season, Josh McDaniels had a 2-6 lifetime record but as with most 1st year head coaches, we expect him to want to win in the pre-season.