Tag: NFL player props

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Dallas Cowboys vs Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction | Oct 6th 2024

Cowboys vs Steelers Preview – Player Props

Game Preview:

  • Date: October 6, 2024
  • Time: 8:20 PM ET
  • Location: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Team Analysis:

  • Dallas Cowboys (2-2): Coming off a narrow victory against the New York Giants, the Cowboys are looking to solidify their standing in the NFC East. However, they face significant challenges with key defensive players out, including Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence. This could severely hamper their ability to pressure Justin Fields, making their pass defense particularly vulnerable.
  • Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1): The Steelers are riding high with Justin Fields at quarterback, showing improvement over last year’s performance. Their defense, traditionally one of the league’s best, is expected to exploit the Cowboys’ weakened defensive line. However, their recent loss against the Colts might be a concern, showing they’re not invulnerable.

Key Betting Insights:

  • Spread: The Steelers are favored by 2.5 points at home, reflecting their solid start and the Cowboys’ injury woes. This line movement from an initial 1.5 points indicates growing confidence in Pittsburgh’s ability to cover against a decimated Cowboys defense.
  • Over/Under: Set at 44 points, the total reflects a game that might not see a high-scoring affair due to strong defensive play, especially from Pittsburgh, but with potential for the Steelers to exploit Dallas’s weakened defense.
  • Moneyline: Steelers are listed at -145 to win outright, showing a clear market preference for Pittsburgh, despite the public leaning towards Dallas in terms of bet volume.
  • Public Betting: Interestingly, while more bets are placed on the Cowboys to cover, the money is heavier on the Steelers, suggesting sharp bettors might see value in Pittsburgh covering or winning outright.

Trends and Predictions:

  • Cowboys: Their offense has been inconsistent, with Dak Prescott performing well but needing support from a struggling rushing game. The absence of key defensive players might force them to rely more on their passing game, which could be a problem versus this Steelers D that ranks 5th in completions allowed and 7th in completion percentage allowed.
  • Steelers: Justin Fields has been a revelation, with his dual-threat capabilities potentially exploiting the Cowboys’ defensive gaps. George Pickens has emerged as a primary receiver with 29 targets this season, and is in a in favorable matchups like this one, against a Cowboys defense that ranks 27 in yards/competion at 11.0.

Betting Picks – Player props:

Look at Justin Fields for over 186.5 passing yards if you believe he’ll have to throw more due to the Cowboys’ defensive adjustments. Fields has thrown fover over this number in his last two games against the Chargers and Colts with 245 and 312 passing yards. He attempted over 30 in both games indicating the coaching staff is gaining confidence in his throwing ability.

Steelers WR George Pickens could be a good bet for over his receiving yards (53.5), given his recent performance and the matchup. George Pickens has emerged as a primary receiver with 29 targets this season, and is in a in favorable matchups, against a Cowboys defense that ranks 27 in yards/competion at 11.0. Pickens is averaging 71 receiving yards per game.

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NFL Prop Bets | Bijan Robinson | Sept 16th 2024

ASA 2 free player prop bets – Atlanta Falcons – Bijan Robinson

OVER 64.5 RUSHING YARDS Bijan Robinson – Atlanta Falcons

OVER 29.5 RECEIVING YARDS Bijan Robinson – Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta attempted the 3rd most rushing attempts per game in 2023 at 30.7. In the opener against the Steelers the Falcons fed Robinson 18 times for 68 yards. He also had 43 receiving yards on 7 targets. Robinson obviously has breakaway or big play ability with two 30+ yards rushing plays and one 40+. He will face an Eagles defense that allowed 163 rushing yards at 7.8-yards per rush in the opener to the Packers. Last season the Eagles ranked 11th in rushing yards per game allowed and 19th in rushing yards per attempt. Philadelphia was 30th in passing yards allowed per game in 2023, giving up 255.7PYPG. Robinson has gone Over 100 total rushing/receiving yards in 5 of his last nine games. With the Falcons trying to protect an immobile QB Cousins we expect a heavy usage rate for Robinson here.

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Lions vs. Packers Predictions – Player Props – Sept 28th 2023

Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers – Thursday, Sept 28th 2023

Detroit Lions -1.5 | Over-Under 45.5

Green Bay Packers

1st HALF LINE – Lions -.5 | O/U 22

Team Totals – Lions O/U 23.5 – Packers O/U 21.5

Detroit Lions 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS

Green Bay Packers 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS

Thursday Night Player Props

Jordan Love Under 34 yards Longest Passing Play

Love has been solid in his first three starts for the Packers but has not hit on many big plays. Detroit ranks 10th (62.7%) in opponent completion percentage and Love is only completing 53% of his passes anyway. At 6.8 yards per attempt it shows his willingness to throw underneath and settle for short gains. In a short week, with multiple offensive playmakers questionable, we expect Love to continue to focus on short passes that keep Green Bay ahead of the chains. 

Romeo Doubs Over Anytime TD

Doubs has 3 touchdowns in 3 games in 2023. He has been the main redzone target for Jordan Love and feels like the Davante Adams replacement for Matt LaFleuer in that area. Aaron Jones is the only other reliable redzone threat for the Packers and his status is up in air. AJ Dillion has been flat out terrible in Jones’ absence so look for Doubs to again capitalize when Green Bay gets into scoring territory. 

Jared Goff Over .5 INTs

Having thrown an interception in both of his previous two games, we feel the trend continues on a short week. Overall, Goff has been a good if not great QB since becoming the starter in Detroit. The passing volume that has increased due to his play brings in more opportunity for mistakes however. Green Bay has a +2 turnover differential so far while Detroit has a -3 differential. Goff has thrown 30+ passes in all three games this year, so a high volume night is likely in store again, leaving plenty of room for a mistake in front of a rocking Lambeau Field crowd.  

Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 72.5 Rec Yards 

Averaging over 91 yards per game this season, Amon-Ra will benefit greatly if Jaire Alexander misses his second straight game. Regardless, the Lions will target St. Brown early and often and love hitting him on deep crossing routes off of play action. He is becoming one of the elite WRs in the league and a true number one for the Lions. Green Bay ranks 10th in passing yards allowed per game, but that number is skewed from playing some of the worst QBs in the league the first three weeks. Another 100 yards day could be in store for St. Brown, but 73 yards is very attainable even against a Packers defense that has played well to start the year. 

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NFL Player Prop | MNF | Sept 18, 2023

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS QB CARR OVER 232.5 PASSING YARDS

Saints QB Carr looked good in his Saint’s debut going 23/33 for 305YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT. Last season the Panthers defense was around league average in YPPL allowed at 5.5. They were 23rd in opponents’ completion percentage allowed and 14th in Yards Per completion allowed at 10.1. Carr can struggle at times when pressured but the Panthers were 25th in the NFL in QB pressure rate a year ago. Carr has thrown for over 231.5 passing yards in 35 of his last 50 games, 17 of his last 25 and 11 of his last 16. Odds are he’ll get Over 232.5 tonight.

CAROLINA PANTHERS QB BRYCE YOUNG OVER 0.5 INT’s

Panthers QB Young got off to a shaky debut in the opener against the Falcons with just 146 passing yards on 38 attempts with 2 INT’s. He’s playing behind a banged up offensive line and doesn’t have receivers that can separate. Tonight, he faces a Saint’s defense that was 8th in sack percentage D and 6th in sacks per game a year ago. This Saint’s ball-hawking secondary picked off Titans Ryan Tannehill three times in the opener. We expect the ‘young’ rookie QB to make a few errant throws tonight with at least one interception.

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NFL Player Prop Bets – Oct 30th – By ASA

ASA 4 NFL Player Props for Sunday, October 30th 2022

Miami Dolphins – Jaylen Waddle Over 64 Rec Yards (-119)

Last week Waddle turned 4 catches into 88 yards with only 5 targets. Detroit is giving up roughly 250 passing yards per game this season making it a salivating matchup for the Miami speedster. If Detroit can regain some of its early season offensive output, we may see a shootout at Ford Field. Set at the highest O/U of the weekend (50.5), Waddle could easily double his yardage total without surprising anyone. 

Atlanta Falcons – Marcus Mariota Under 161.5 Pass Yards (-117)

Atlanta has been dead set on running the football no matter the score in 2022. In week seven, the Bengals scored 21 unanswered points on their first three drives, yet Mariota only threw 13 times the entire game while trailing. He has not surpassed 150 passing yards once in his previous four games. Additionally, Carolina’s defense played great against the Bucs, holding them to three total points. 

New Orleans Saints – Alvin Kamara Over 38.5 Rec Yards (-117)

Andy Dalton was named the starter once again for week 8. This bodes well for Kamara as he has collected six or more passes in the three games they have both started. Las Vegas ranks 27th in passing yards allowed per game. With how involved the Saints stud running back is in the passing game, expect there to be plenty of room for Kamara to operate. Volume alone will make him a valuable bet. 

NY Giants Saquon Barkley Over 84.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Barkley is averaging 103.71 rushing yards per game and this Seattle defense will be the worst rush D they have faced this season. The Seahawks give up 147.9 Rushing Yards Per game which ranks 29th in the NFL. The Hawks D-line ranks 19th in “Hog Index”. The Giants rank 10th in O-Line “Hog Index”. Let’s do some simple math here: Seattle gives up 4.9-Yards Per Rush. Barkley averages 20.43-Rush Attempts Per Game. Barkley averages 5.1-Yards Per Rush. If it’s an “average” game Barkley should rush for over 102.15 rushing yards.  

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