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NFL News & Notes | Oct 23 2025

NFLNEWS&NOTES

ASA’s NFL News & Notes – Oct 23 2025

CHICAGO BEARS – The Bears topped New Orleans 26-14 on Sunday and have now won 4 straight games.  Believe it or not, that their longest winning streak in 6 years!  How have they done it?  Turnovers.  They have at least 3 takeaways in all 4 of their wins during that stretch and they created 4 takeaways in 3 of those games.  Their turnover margin during their 4 game winning streak is +13 which is insane for that short stretch of time.  In 2 of those wins, Chicago needed a FG as time expired to win vs Washington and they blocked a FG as time expired to win vs Las Vegas.  They were +3 turnovers in both of those games which wouldn’t often come down to last second FG situations for teams with a +3 turnover margin in a game.  They won each of those 2 games by 1 point.  The Bears have now moved into the top spot in the NFL at +11 turnover margin on the season which is 3 better than Jacksonville who sits with the 2nd best mark at +8.    

BALTIMORE RAVENS – We don’t often see teams that have a record of 1-5 favored by nearly a TD over a team that is 4-2.  That’s what we have on Sunday with Baltimore -6.5 at home vs Chicago, who has won 4 straight games.  The expectation is that starting QB Lamar Jackson will be back after missing 3 games with a hamstring injury.  Jackson did not practice on Monday but prior to the bye head coach Jim Harbaugh was anticipating him back for this game.  The Birds were outscored 98-33 in the 3 games Jackson was out.  So, while offense has been an issue, their defense has been really bad as well.  They rank dead last allowing 32 PPG, they are 30th in total defense, and 27th in YPP defense.  For perspective, the Baltimore defense ranked 8th, 8th and 6th last year in those statistics.  They did have a rash of injuries on that side of the ball a few weeks ago and they are getting healthier on defense which should help.  Turnovers have also been an issue.  They have committed 10 turnovers through 6 games after committing 11 the entire season last year. 

NY JETS – Man this Jets offense is bad.  They haven’t reached the endzone since October 5th.  In their last 2 games, they’ve totaled 302 yards on 127 plays which is a terrible 2.37 YPP.  They reached the redzone (opponents 20 yard line or closer) just twice in those 2 games and didn’t score a TD in either.  QB Justin Fields has completed 15 passes in the last 2 games combined and his yards per attempt was just 3.1.  They replaced him with Tyrod Taylor in last week’s loss vs Carolina.  Taylor proceeded to complete 45% of this passes and threw 2 interceptions.  They have not topped 4.6 YPP in 5 of their last 6 games.  The Jets defense hasn’t been much help with 1 takeaway the entire season.  The only winless team in the NFL travels to Cincinnati this weekend where they are a 6.5 point dog vs a team that hasn’t been favored since QB Joe Burrow went on the shelf.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS – We mentioned a few weeks ago in this weekly article that the Jags had been a bit lucky this season.  They were 4-1 at the time, had a negative YPP differential and were living off their turnover margin, which at the time was #1 in the NFL.  They had a +7 turnover margin in their first 4 wins but were outgained on a YPP basis in 3 of those 4 wins.  We felt they their luck was getting ready to run out and we faded Jacksonville each of the last 2 weeks and picked up 2 wins.  In their games vs Seattle and the LA Rams, the turnover margin was even in both games and Jacksonville was outscored 55-19.  After last weekend they now rank 23rd in the NFL in YPP margin.  Coming back from their blowout loss to the Rams in London, they now have this week off before traveling to Las Vegas.

DENVER BRONCOS – The Broncos became the first team in over 1,600 games that trailed by 18 or more with 6:00 minutes or less remaining the won the game.  They didn’t score a point in the first 3 quarters last week vs the Giants and then exploded for 33 points in the 4th quarter!  They scored their final 30 points all in the last 5:15 of the game.  The Broncos were 7 point favorites and led for a grand total of 1 minute and 14 seconds.  Denver is 2nd in the NFL in YPP margin behind only Seattle but their point differential is just +36 (9th in the NFL) despite their 5-2 record.  All of their games with the exception of their big win vs Cincinnati, have come by one score (both wins and losses).    

CLEVELAND BROWNS – The Browns offense broke through for 31 points last week vs Miami.  Prior to that, Cleveland had scored 17 points or less in 11 straight games.  So is the Cleveland offense heading in the right direction after their breakout performance?  We doubt it.  Sure they scored 31 points but they only had 206 total yards and averaged just 3.9 YPP.  They benefitted from 4 Miami turnovers and scored 21 of their 31 points directly off of those turnovers including a pick 6.  Rookie QB Gabriel has done a nice job of protecting the ball in his 3 starts (0 turnovers) but he’s completed less than 60% of his passes in 2 of those games and he’s averaging a paltry 5.1 yards per pass attempt.  The Browns offense still ranks 28th or lower in scoring, total offense, YPP, rushing YPG, and passing YPG.  They head to New England on Sunday to try and win back to back games for the first time since 2023.    

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS – After starting 0-2 with home losses vs LA Chargers and Baltimore, the Chiefs look like they just might be the best team in the NFL right now.  They’ve won 4 of the last 5 and in their 1 loss during that stretch they outgained Jacksonville 7.6 YPP to 5.9 YPP.  A 99 yard pick 6 for the Jags was the difference and even with that they needed a TD in the waning seconds to win by 3 points.  Their 4 wins have come by an average margin of +18.5 points and they’ve outgained their last 5 opponents by over 600 combined yards.  They are now the only team in the NFL that ranks in the top 5 in both total offense and total defense.  Two of their top offensive playmakers returned from injury (Xavier Worthy) and suspension (Rashee Rice) and after a slow start Mahomes has now completed over 70% of his passes over the last 3 games.  On the season he has 14 TD passes and just 2 interceptions and he’s rushed for 250 yards on 6.0 YPC.  The oddsmakers have made the adjustment with KC favored by 10.5 next Monday night vs Washington (who will most likely be without QB Jayden Daniels).

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS – The Pats have quietly put together a 4 game winning streak and have moved to 5-2 on the season.  However, we’re not sure what to think of this team quite yet.  They’ve played the easiest schedule in the NFL to date and on top of that they have the easiest remaining schedule as well.  Of their final 10 games, only 2 opponents currently have a record above .500 (Bucs, and Bils).  Their other 8 remaining opponents have a current combined record of 12-42.  Despite that east schedule, their YPP margin is -0.15 which is 20th in the NFL.  3 of their 5 wins have come against the Titans, Saints, and Dolphins who have a combined record of 3-18.  They have a loss vs Las Vegas who sits at 2-5 on the season.  New England just pushed through their tough scheduling spot (3 straight road games) with wins @ Buffalo, @ New Orleans, and @ Tennessee.  QB Drake Maye has a top 5 QBR and has already thrown 12 TD’s (15 all of last year) and has only 2 interceptions (10 last year).   

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NFL Player Prop Bets | QB’s Big Day | Oct 12 2025

Patriots – QB Drake Maye OVER 232.5 Passing Yards vs. Saints

Drake Maye just torched the Bills for 273 yards in a wild upset win last week, and he’s cleared 232.5 passing yards in 3 of his 5 starts this season—his two misses? Barely under by 3 yards in Week 2, and then they blew out the Panthers in Week 4 and sat on the lead. The Saints’ pass D ranks 23rd in opponents’ completion % (69.54%) and 20th in yards per attempt (6.8). They don’t sack QBs much either, averaging just 2.4 per game, so Maye should have time to sling it. Maye’s the 2nd-most accurate QB in the NFL at 73.38% completions, especially now that he’s clicking with Stefon Diggs for 100+ yards the last two weeks straight.

Chargers – QB Justin Herbert OVER 21.5 Rushing Yards vs Dolphins

The Chargers are down to their 3rd and 4th string RB’s in Haskins and Vidal so expect Herbert to pick up the rushing slack on broken plays. Herbert has rushed for 24 or more yards in 4 of five games this season and coming off a 60-yard game against the Commanders. Miami ranks last in the league against the run allowing 174 rushing yards per game. The Dolphins give up 5.6 yards per rush (31st). They simply don’t win in the trenches. Miami has allowed an average of 32.8 rushing yards to opposing QB’s this season and Herberts willingness to run makes this a very attractive prop bet Sunday.

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NFC North Prediction | Minnesota Vikings | 9-5-2024

ASA’s NFC NORTH WIN TOTAL PROJECTION

NFC North Prediction – Minnesota Vikings – Under 7.5 Wins (-150)

The Vikings lost 6 of their final 9 games last season after losing QB Cousins for the season with an Achilles injury.  Two of their three wins after Cousins injury came by a FG and they were outgained (YPP) in 6 of their last 7 games. 

Now with Cousins moving on to Atlanta, Minnesota will rely on journeyman QB Sam Darnold, who has a career record of 21-35 as a starter.

Defensively, they were atrocious defending the pass, which is obviously key in today’s NFL, ranking dead last in opponent completion percentage at over 70%.  They didn’t do much to upgrade the defensive backfield as their depth chart looks the same as last season with the exception of CB Griffin, who is expected to start despite playing in only 3 games with Carolina last season and has been on the decline since 2019. 

The struggling secondary won’t get much help from the defensive line which ranks 30th heading into the season per PFF.  This team may have to score in bunches to win games this year and we just don’t see that happening with their QB situation. 

The schedule won’t do them any favors either.  The Vikes will be facing the 5th most difficult schedule and their early slate is brutal.  After facing the NY Giants on the road to start the season (should be a pick-em type game), Minnesota faces San Francisco, Houston, Green Bay, NY Jets, and Detroit in succession and they’ll be underdogs in each of those games. 

The Vikings won 7 games last season and we just don’t see an improvement this year.  Under is the call.   

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AFC West Prediction | Denver Broncos Under 5.5 |

ASA’s AFC WEST WIN TOTAL PROJECTION

ASA AFC West Prediction – Denver Broncos – UNDER 5.5 Wins (-115)

How are the Broncos going to score enough points to keep up in games?  They might have the worst group of skill position players in the NFL and it starts at QB.  Jarred Stidham, Zach Wilson, and rookie Bo Nix are battling it out to see who gets the nod as the starting signal caller.  Stidham and Wilson both have a career passing completion percentage below 60% and they’ve combined to throw more interceptions than TD’s.  Rookie Bo Nix will be the Week #1 starter and we are not overly confident in his ability to lead this Broncos team to 6+ wins.

Denver lost top WR Jerry Jeudy to Cleveland and starting RB Williams dropped off big time last season (just 3.5 YPC) after a serious knee injury in 2022.  Head coach Sean Payton said he wants to run the ball more to protect his inexperienced, and honestly just not very good, QB’s. 

The problem is, they weren’t great at running the ball last year (21st in YPC) and didn’t really do much in the off season to improve on that.  The Denver offense was just 1 of 7 in the NFL that didn’t have a player with 1,000 yards rushing or receiving and they’ll be worse on that side of the ball this year. 

The defense will most likely be improved but that won’t take much as they finished 27th in PPG allowed and 29th in YPG allowed. 

The Broncos face the 8th most difficult schedule this season (per PFF) and have only 8 home games.  They’ve always had a solid home field advantage, but on the road they have not had a winning record since 2015 (16-41 road record the last 7 years) and we project them to be underdogs in all of their road tilts this season. 

Believe it or not, the Broncos have averaged only 6 wins per season over the last 7 years and we project this to be one of their worst teams during that stretch.  5 or fewer wins for Denver this year is likely.

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AFC North Prediction | Steelers Under 8.5 | 9-4-2024

ASA’s AFC NORTH WIN TOTAL PROJECTION

AFC North Prediction – Pittsburgh Steelers – UNDER 8.5 Wins (-140)

We’re going against the grain a bit here as the Steelers have never finished with a losing record under head coach Mike Tomlin.  We think this is the year that streak ends. 

Truth be told, that run really should have ended last season.  Pittsburgh finished with a 10-7 record a year ago but they ended the season with a negative point differential, they were outgained on the year both YPG and YPP, and had fewer rushing and passing yards than their opponents.  They finished 9-2 in games decided by a TD or less and while they went 5-1 in NFC North play, 4 of those 5 wins they faced back up QB’s vs Cincinnati (both games), Baltimore and Cleveland.  Those successes will be very difficult to duplicate in back to back years.  As will their turnover margin of +11 which was the 3rd best in the NFL last year. 

To say they were fortunate to get to 10 wins is an understatement as their projected win total based on point differential and key stats was under 8.  The Steelers did bring in 2 new signal callers in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields.  The problem is, Wilson is on the downside of his career (13th year) and wasn’t great the last 2 season in Denver while Fields has never lived up to the hype with just a 10-28 record as a starter. 

The defense allowing just 19.7 PPG last season but their YPG (21st) and YPP (23rd) numbers were not in line with their scoring defense so again, we feel they were fortunate on that side of the ball. 

Pittsburgh just happens to have the most difficult schedule in the NFL this season based on opponents expected win totals.  They better get off to a red hot start if they expect to get to 9 wins this season as they back half of their schedule (final 8 games) is brutal.  A fast start might be tough with a new offensive coordinator, new QB, and they play 4 of their first 6 games on the road.  We think an 8 win season for Pittsburgh would be really solid this year and that still lands them under this total .

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