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AFC North Prediction | Steelers Under 8.5 | 9-4-2024

ASA’s AFC NORTH WIN TOTAL PROJECTION

AFC North Prediction – Pittsburgh Steelers – UNDER 8.5 Wins (-140)

We’re going against the grain a bit here as the Steelers have never finished with a losing record under head coach Mike Tomlin.  We think this is the year that streak ends. 

Truth be told, that run really should have ended last season.  Pittsburgh finished with a 10-7 record a year ago but they ended the season with a negative point differential, they were outgained on the year both YPG and YPP, and had fewer rushing and passing yards than their opponents.  They finished 9-2 in games decided by a TD or less and while they went 5-1 in NFC North play, 4 of those 5 wins they faced back up QB’s vs Cincinnati (both games), Baltimore and Cleveland.  Those successes will be very difficult to duplicate in back to back years.  As will their turnover margin of +11 which was the 3rd best in the NFL last year. 

To say they were fortunate to get to 10 wins is an understatement as their projected win total based on point differential and key stats was under 8.  The Steelers did bring in 2 new signal callers in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields.  The problem is, Wilson is on the downside of his career (13th year) and wasn’t great the last 2 season in Denver while Fields has never lived up to the hype with just a 10-28 record as a starter. 

The defense allowing just 19.7 PPG last season but their YPG (21st) and YPP (23rd) numbers were not in line with their scoring defense so again, we feel they were fortunate on that side of the ball. 

Pittsburgh just happens to have the most difficult schedule in the NFL this season based on opponents expected win totals.  They better get off to a red hot start if they expect to get to 9 wins this season as they back half of their schedule (final 8 games) is brutal.  A fast start might be tough with a new offensive coordinator, new QB, and they play 4 of their first 6 games on the road.  We think an 8 win season for Pittsburgh would be really solid this year and that still lands them under this total .

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AFC East Prediction | NY Jets Over 9.5 | 9-4-24

ASA’s AFC EAST WIN TOTAL PROJECTION

AFC East Prediction – New York Jets – Over 9.5 Wins (-150)

We went into our research on the Jets thinking we’d be leaning toward the Under on their win total.  After a deep dive into their off-season transactions, schedule, etc… we realized our original thoughts were off and the Over is the play here. 

They should be very good in the trenches on both sides of the ball this year which is a huge key.  Last year they were flat out bad on the offensive line but their off-season transactions, picking up 2 of the top OT’s in the NFL (Smith from Dallas & Moses from Baltimore) have this unit ranked in the top 5 in the league per PFF. 

The defensive line was fantastic last year and is ranked #1 per PFF heading into this season.  The stop unit as a whole for New York is among the best in the NFL and led the league in YPP allowed at 4.6 and #2 in YPG allowed at 292.  If the offense can be average, this team will have a very good record. 

QB Aaron Rodgers is expected to be back and they signed veteran back up Tyrod Taylor, who has started nearly 100 games in his career, just in case.  The weapons are solid with RB Hall returning (1000 yards rushing & 600 yards receiving), along with WR’s Wilson and Williams who they picked up in free agency. 

The Fly Boys face the 4th easiest schedule in the NFL based on opponents win projections and face the league’s worst team, the Patriots (4.5 projected wins) twice.  Outside the AFC East, they also face the Broncos, Titans, Cardinals, Vikings, and Seahawks who are all projected to have losing records this season. 

If Rodgers can stay healthy, we realize that’s a big if, the offense should go from 31st in YPP & YPG to middle of the pack at worst.  That should be enough to get to 10 wins this with their high end defense and easy schedule.      

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AFC South Prediction | Texans Under 9.5 wins | 9-4-24

ASA’s AFC SOUTH WIN TOTAL PROJECTION

Houston Texans – Under 9.5 Wins (+125) We think Houston is a bit overvalued after last year’s 10-7 season.  Their opening win total a year ago was 5.5 and now we’re sitting a full 4 games above that at 9.5 and plus juice on the Under. 

They were a bit fortunate last year to get to 10 wins.  Their point differential was just +24 for the season and they finished 7-3 in one score games so we can probably look for a regression there.  They also played one of the league’s easiest schedules in 2023 and that is being replaced with a much tougher slate in 2024 (7th toughest SOS this season).  They face the NFC North & AFC East so @ Green Bay, vs Detroit, @ NY Jets, vs Buffalo, and vs Miami.  On top of that, their other opponents outside the AFC South include games @ Kansas City, @ Dallas, and home vs Baltimore.  Last year their 3 “swing games” so to speak were NY Jets, Denver and Atlanta so a huge upgrade this season in level of opponents.   

They also play 9 road games this season and they were just .500 away from home last year with tight 2 point wins @ Carolina (2 wins on the season), @ Atlanta (7 wins last season) and Houston was destroyed @ NY Jets with Zach Wilson at the helm. 

QB Stroud and HC Ryans had great first seasons but is the dreaded sophomore slump in store for the 2024 year?  Teams now have had a full season of film on Stroud so he won’t sneak up on anyone.  He’s also operating behind an offensive line that ranks near the bottom of the NFL going into this season per PFF (22nd). 

Defensively Houston’s weak spot last year was vs the pass which is not where you want to be vulnerable in the current NFL.  They allowed 6.9 yards per pass attempt (26th) and opposing QB’s completed over 68% of their attempts on the Texans (30th).  This year that shaky pass defense faces the likes of Mahomes, Prescott, Rodgers, Goff, Allen, Tagovailoa, Jackson, Love, and Lawrence to name a few. 

They were also very fortunate to be +10 in turnover margin last season (5th best in the NFL) which will be very tough to match.  This Houston team won’t catch anyone by surprise this year and we have them tabbed for 9 wins so Under is the side here. 

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NFL Rookie of the Year Prediction | By ASA | 8-26-24

NFL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR – +500 QB JAYDEN DANIELS – WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

The Washington Commanders are entering the 2024 season with a renewed sense of optimism, driven by the arrival of rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels and the fresh leadership of head coach Dan Quinn and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury. Daniels, a dynamic dual-threat quarterback out of LSU, was a highly-touted prospect in the 2024 NFL Draft, and the Commanders are betting on his talent to be the future of the franchise. We like a future bet on Daniels to win NFL Rookie of the Year.

Daniels brings a unique blend of athleticism, arm strength, and poise to Washington’s offense. Known for his ability to extend plays with his legs and make accurate throws on the run, Daniels is expected to add a new dimension to the Commanders’ attack. His transition to the NFL will be guided by Kingsbury, who has a proven track record of developing young quarterbacks and creating high-powered offenses. Kingsbury’s system, known for its quick tempo and emphasis on spreading the field, should complement Daniels’ skill set and allow him to thrive early in his career.

Head coach Dan Quinn, known for his defensive prowess, brings a championship pedigree to Washington, having previously led the Atlanta Falcons to a Super Bowl appearance. While Quinn’s expertise lies on the defensive side of the ball, his leadership and experience will be crucial in shaping the overall culture and identity of the team.

The Commanders’ offense will feature playmakers like wide receiver Terry McLaurin and running back Brian Robinson Jr., providing Daniels with reliable targets and a solid run game to lean on. The offensive line, bolstered by key additions in the offseason, will need to give Daniels the protection he needs to make plays and develop as a rookie.

While the learning curve for Daniels will be steep, the combination of his raw talent, Kingsbury’s offensive creativity, and Quinn’s steady hand could set the stage for an exciting new era in Washington. The 2024 season will be a crucial year of development for Daniels and the Commanders, with the potential to lay the foundation for future success. With the starting QB job handed to Daniels we like his odds at +500 to be Rookie of the Year.

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