AFC East Prediction | NY Jets Over 9.5 | 9-4-24

AFC East Prediction – New York Jets – Over 9.5 Wins (-150)

We went into our research on the Jets thinking we’d be leaning toward the Under on their win total.  After a deep dive into their off-season transactions, schedule, etc… we realized our original thoughts were off and the Over is the play here. 

They should be very good in the trenches on both sides of the ball this year which is a huge key.  Last year they were flat out bad on the offensive line but their off-season transactions, picking up 2 of the top OT’s in the NFL (Smith from Dallas & Moses from Baltimore) have this unit ranked in the top 5 in the league per PFF. 

The defensive line was fantastic last year and is ranked #1 per PFF heading into this season.  The stop unit as a whole for New York is among the best in the NFL and led the league in YPP allowed at 4.6 and #2 in YPG allowed at 292.  If the offense can be average, this team will have a very good record. 

QB Aaron Rodgers is expected to be back and they signed veteran back up Tyrod Taylor, who has started nearly 100 games in his career, just in case.  The weapons are solid with RB Hall returning (1000 yards rushing & 600 yards receiving), along with WR’s Wilson and Williams who they picked up in free agency. 

The Fly Boys face the 4^th easiest schedule in the NFL based on opponents win projections and face the league’s worst team, the Patriots (4.5 projected wins) twice.  Outside the AFC East, they also face the Broncos, Titans, Cardinals, Vikings, and Seahawks who are all projected to have losing records this season. 

If Rodgers can stay healthy, we realize that’s a big if, the offense should go from 31^st in YPP & YPG to middle of the pack at worst.  That should be enough to get to 10 wins this with their high end defense and easy schedule.      

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