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NFL Free play | Dolphins vs Falcons | Oct 26 2025

#268 ASA NFL FREE PLAY ON Atlanta Falcons -7 over Miami Dolphins, Sunday a 1 PM ET

We like the Falcons to bounce back after a poor showing last Sunday @ San Francisco.  Atlanta opened as a dog last week vs the Niners and flipped to a small favorite but didn’t show up to play losing 20-10.  The yardage was dead even at 4.9 YPP (season low for the Falcons) and Atlanta was shut out on downs in their final 2 drives.  Prior to that loss, the Falcons had topped Washington by 7 and Buffalo by 10 (2 playoff caliber teams), both at home.  Miami is in a freefall.  They are now 1-6 SU on the season after getting rolled 31-6 @ Cleveland last week.  It was the first time in 11 games the Browns topped 17 points.  This will be the Browns 3rd road game in 4 weeks and they are 0-4 SU on the road (3 of those losses coming by double digits).  The Fins have internal issues and head coach McDaniel is on the hot seat to say the least.  Seems like this team is very close to imploding and if they get down in this game, it might be lights out.  Atlanta is one of 2 teams that ranks in the top 7 in total offense and total defense (other is KC).  Miami ranks 26th in total offense and 27th in total defense.  This is a terrible match up for the Dolphins defense as they rank dead last defending the run allowing 160 YPG on the ground and they are facing an Atlanta offense that averages 137 YPG rushing (4th in the NFL). No Penix Jr, No problem with vet Kirk Cousins under center. Atlanta RB Robinson (6th in the NFL in rushing yards) had a poor outing vs SF (2.9 YPC) but he should have a field day vs this defense.  Miami’s offense will be without one of the key weapons, TE Waller, and they’re already missing Tyreek Hill.  Now facing the #2 defense (Atlanta allows just 265 YPG) we expect a struggle.  Atlanta wins this home tilt by more than a TD. 

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NFL News & Notes | Oct 23 2025

NFLNEWS&NOTES

ASA’s NFL News & Notes – Oct 23 2025

CHICAGO BEARS – The Bears topped New Orleans 26-14 on Sunday and have now won 4 straight games.  Believe it or not, that their longest winning streak in 6 years!  How have they done it?  Turnovers.  They have at least 3 takeaways in all 4 of their wins during that stretch and they created 4 takeaways in 3 of those games.  Their turnover margin during their 4 game winning streak is +13 which is insane for that short stretch of time.  In 2 of those wins, Chicago needed a FG as time expired to win vs Washington and they blocked a FG as time expired to win vs Las Vegas.  They were +3 turnovers in both of those games which wouldn’t often come down to last second FG situations for teams with a +3 turnover margin in a game.  They won each of those 2 games by 1 point.  The Bears have now moved into the top spot in the NFL at +11 turnover margin on the season which is 3 better than Jacksonville who sits with the 2nd best mark at +8.    

BALTIMORE RAVENS – We don’t often see teams that have a record of 1-5 favored by nearly a TD over a team that is 4-2.  That’s what we have on Sunday with Baltimore -6.5 at home vs Chicago, who has won 4 straight games.  The expectation is that starting QB Lamar Jackson will be back after missing 3 games with a hamstring injury.  Jackson did not practice on Monday but prior to the bye head coach Jim Harbaugh was anticipating him back for this game.  The Birds were outscored 98-33 in the 3 games Jackson was out.  So, while offense has been an issue, their defense has been really bad as well.  They rank dead last allowing 32 PPG, they are 30th in total defense, and 27th in YPP defense.  For perspective, the Baltimore defense ranked 8th, 8th and 6th last year in those statistics.  They did have a rash of injuries on that side of the ball a few weeks ago and they are getting healthier on defense which should help.  Turnovers have also been an issue.  They have committed 10 turnovers through 6 games after committing 11 the entire season last year. 

NY JETS – Man this Jets offense is bad.  They haven’t reached the endzone since October 5th.  In their last 2 games, they’ve totaled 302 yards on 127 plays which is a terrible 2.37 YPP.  They reached the redzone (opponents 20 yard line or closer) just twice in those 2 games and didn’t score a TD in either.  QB Justin Fields has completed 15 passes in the last 2 games combined and his yards per attempt was just 3.1.  They replaced him with Tyrod Taylor in last week’s loss vs Carolina.  Taylor proceeded to complete 45% of this passes and threw 2 interceptions.  They have not topped 4.6 YPP in 5 of their last 6 games.  The Jets defense hasn’t been much help with 1 takeaway the entire season.  The only winless team in the NFL travels to Cincinnati this weekend where they are a 6.5 point dog vs a team that hasn’t been favored since QB Joe Burrow went on the shelf.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS – We mentioned a few weeks ago in this weekly article that the Jags had been a bit lucky this season.  They were 4-1 at the time, had a negative YPP differential and were living off their turnover margin, which at the time was #1 in the NFL.  They had a +7 turnover margin in their first 4 wins but were outgained on a YPP basis in 3 of those 4 wins.  We felt they their luck was getting ready to run out and we faded Jacksonville each of the last 2 weeks and picked up 2 wins.  In their games vs Seattle and the LA Rams, the turnover margin was even in both games and Jacksonville was outscored 55-19.  After last weekend they now rank 23rd in the NFL in YPP margin.  Coming back from their blowout loss to the Rams in London, they now have this week off before traveling to Las Vegas.

DENVER BRONCOS – The Broncos became the first team in over 1,600 games that trailed by 18 or more with 6:00 minutes or less remaining the won the game.  They didn’t score a point in the first 3 quarters last week vs the Giants and then exploded for 33 points in the 4th quarter!  They scored their final 30 points all in the last 5:15 of the game.  The Broncos were 7 point favorites and led for a grand total of 1 minute and 14 seconds.  Denver is 2nd in the NFL in YPP margin behind only Seattle but their point differential is just +36 (9th in the NFL) despite their 5-2 record.  All of their games with the exception of their big win vs Cincinnati, have come by one score (both wins and losses).    

CLEVELAND BROWNS – The Browns offense broke through for 31 points last week vs Miami.  Prior to that, Cleveland had scored 17 points or less in 11 straight games.  So is the Cleveland offense heading in the right direction after their breakout performance?  We doubt it.  Sure they scored 31 points but they only had 206 total yards and averaged just 3.9 YPP.  They benefitted from 4 Miami turnovers and scored 21 of their 31 points directly off of those turnovers including a pick 6.  Rookie QB Gabriel has done a nice job of protecting the ball in his 3 starts (0 turnovers) but he’s completed less than 60% of his passes in 2 of those games and he’s averaging a paltry 5.1 yards per pass attempt.  The Browns offense still ranks 28th or lower in scoring, total offense, YPP, rushing YPG, and passing YPG.  They head to New England on Sunday to try and win back to back games for the first time since 2023.    

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS – After starting 0-2 with home losses vs LA Chargers and Baltimore, the Chiefs look like they just might be the best team in the NFL right now.  They’ve won 4 of the last 5 and in their 1 loss during that stretch they outgained Jacksonville 7.6 YPP to 5.9 YPP.  A 99 yard pick 6 for the Jags was the difference and even with that they needed a TD in the waning seconds to win by 3 points.  Their 4 wins have come by an average margin of +18.5 points and they’ve outgained their last 5 opponents by over 600 combined yards.  They are now the only team in the NFL that ranks in the top 5 in both total offense and total defense.  Two of their top offensive playmakers returned from injury (Xavier Worthy) and suspension (Rashee Rice) and after a slow start Mahomes has now completed over 70% of his passes over the last 3 games.  On the season he has 14 TD passes and just 2 interceptions and he’s rushed for 250 yards on 6.0 YPC.  The oddsmakers have made the adjustment with KC favored by 10.5 next Monday night vs Washington (who will most likely be without QB Jayden Daniels).

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS – The Pats have quietly put together a 4 game winning streak and have moved to 5-2 on the season.  However, we’re not sure what to think of this team quite yet.  They’ve played the easiest schedule in the NFL to date and on top of that they have the easiest remaining schedule as well.  Of their final 10 games, only 2 opponents currently have a record above .500 (Bucs, and Bils).  Their other 8 remaining opponents have a current combined record of 12-42.  Despite that east schedule, their YPP margin is -0.15 which is 20th in the NFL.  3 of their 5 wins have come against the Titans, Saints, and Dolphins who have a combined record of 3-18.  They have a loss vs Las Vegas who sits at 2-5 on the season.  New England just pushed through their tough scheduling spot (3 straight road games) with wins @ Buffalo, @ New Orleans, and @ Tennessee.  QB Drake Maye has a top 5 QBR and has already thrown 12 TD’s (15 all of last year) and has only 2 interceptions (10 last year).   

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NFL Free Bet | Eagles vs Vikings | Oct 19 2025

Point Train NFL Free Bet: Philadelphia Eagles -0.5 in the First Half @ Minnesota Vikings – 12PM CT

RATING: 3UNIT

  • We don’t trust the Eagles for the full game but feel they’ll come out an play very well and inspired in the first half coming off a terrible loss vs the Giants
  • The Eagles average 14.8 points in the first half this year which is 4th in the NFL.  Their first half point margin is +1.8 per game
  • The Eagles have trailed at half in only 2 of their 6 games vs Rams and Giants
  • The Eagles are averaging 2.83 points per drive in the first half which is 6th best in the NFL
  • The Vikings have trailed at the half in 4 of their 5 games this season. 
  • The Vikings are averaging just 11.8 points in the first half and they’ve scored only 3 offensive TD’s in the first half this season
  • The Vikings have scored TD’s on only 3 of their 29 first half possessions this season which is barely a 10% rate – that ranks 28th in the NFL
  • We anticipate the Eagles getting off to a fast start and leading at the half

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NFL Power Rankings | Oct 14 2025

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Point Train – NFL Power Rankings (Post-Week 6, 2025)

Here is a short NFL rankings based on what we’ve seen through games played on October 13th. These rankings are fluid and will fluctuate weekly. We are reflecting on their performance and alignment with analytics as of October 14, 2025.

  1. Detroit Lions 4-2: Explosive offense led to 4 straight wins and the losses have been respectable at Green Bay and Kansas City. (+49 total points differential) . Top-tier efficiency (3rd DVOA) despite early coaching hiccups. A legitimate contender.
  2. Seattle Seahawks 4-2: Quietly a current contender in the NFC. The Seahawks rank 1st DVOA overall. Lost to 5-1 Tampa Bay and 4-2 49ers. Top-10 in offensive/defensive YPPL.
  3. LA Rams: 4-2 after late-game bad breaks – blocked FGs, OT loss – or could be 6-0. Elite efficiency (top-10 YPPL both sides) makes them a sneaky contender with a veteran QB and a coach that knows how to win.
  4. Indianapolis Colts: High-octane offense (6.3 YPPL, 1st in scoring 32.3PPG) drives a 5-1 start. Defense lags but improving. “Indiana Jones” nickname fits QB Danny Jones who has played well in Indy (best QBR currently in league). Why isn’t Jones in the MVP conversation (+3000)? What if he leads the Colts to the best record in the AFC?
  5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield’s late-game heroics fuel a 5-1 record despite a +14 point differential. Disappointing defense 16th in Yards p/play allowed.
  6. Philadelphia Eagles: Smoke-and-mirrors 4-2 record with negative -1 point differential. Credit is due for wins against the Rams, Bucs, Chiefs. Questions abound after two straight losses – one to the Giants.
  7. Buffalo Bills: Dropped after a home loss to Patriots and MNF loss to the Falcons. 4-0 start was inflated by weak opponents (3-17 combined). Still a top-6 offense per DVOA. Josh Allen can overcome a lot…just not bad coaching or play defense.
  8. San Francisco 49ers: Injury-plagued but resilient (4-2). Mac Jones (3-1) outshines Purdy (1-1), raising QB questions. Health remains a critical concern.
  9. Green Bay Packers: Solid 4-2 with balanced offense/defense (top-10 in both Offensive/Defensive DVOA). Looked like Super Bowl contender in Weeks 1 & 2, then imploded versus the Browns and defense suspect in tie at Cowboys.
  10. Kansas City Chiefs: Don’t count out the Chiefs after their 3-3 start for the perennial contenders. Offense struggled the first few weeks but is starting to click now. The O took a jump last week going from 5.3YPPL to 5.7YPPL.
  11. Denver Broncos: Scrappy 4-2 squad with underrated defense (6th DVOA). Offense needs consistency, but they’re exceeding expectations and tracking better than my preseason rankings.
  12. Washington Commanders: Not surprised with 3-3 start with flashes of offensive brilliance. Analytics (7th-12th range) suggest they’re a playoff dark horse. They face a tough 3-game stretch at KC, vs. Seattle and Detroit.
  13. Jacksonville Jaguars: Competitive 4-2 team with improving efficiency. Young roster finding its groove and you can’t discredit wins at 49ers and home against the Chiefs. Verdict still out but certainly a contender in the AFC South.
  14. LA Chargers: 4-2 but inconsistent. Injuries are always a major concern in the NFL and the Chargers’ top 4 running backs are out or injured. Not sure a one-dimensional offense can survive in today’s NFL.
  15. New England Patriots: Upset win over Buffalo highlights 4-2 record. Shockingly the offense has outplayed the defense thus far under coach Vrabel. Pats fans should temper their enthusiasm as the other three wins have come against Miami, Carolina and New Orleans.
  16. Pittsburgh Steelers: 4-1 with an offense that ranks bottom 10 in Yards p/play (5.1YPPL) but thrives on turnovers with +1.4 per game (2nd most). The defense is starting to play like a Mike Tomlin unit allowing just 5.2YPPL.
  17. Atlanta Falcons: 3-2 with a pedestrian offense. 2nd year QB Penix Jr ranks 20th in passing YPG, 19th in QBR but has upside and a stud RB in Robinson. The defense rates are much higher in efficiency stats (1st) than traditional numbers.
  18. Minnesota Vikings: 3-2 despite major concerns with their O-line. Offense shows flashes with Wentz providing stability and a loaded WR group. Defensive top 10 in efficiency ratings and 2nd in 3rd down conversion percentage, 8th in Yards p/play allowed and 5th in scored D allowing 19.4PPG.
  19. Houston Texans: Disappointing 2-3 after high expectations. Is the offense for real after putting up 26 and 44 points the past two weeks? Hold on a minute, those numbers come against a Titans D allowing 27PPG (26th) and the Ravens giving up 32PPG (32nd). The defense looks to be real as they’ve held 4 of five opponents to 10-points or less.
  20. Chicago Bears: 3-2 after a 3-game winning streak. The Bears have some positive momentum, but they were outgained in both wins against the Cowboys and Raiders and were +3 in TO’s against Washington.
  21. Arizona Cardinals: 2-4 with the wins coming against Carolina and New Orleans – hardly impressive. One of two teams in the NFL with a losing overall record but a positive point differential (Houston).
  22. Dallas Cowboys: 2-3-1 and a tough team to figure out right now. Shocking tie with Green Bay but needed OT to beat a bad Giants team, held off the Jets two weeks ago then lost at Carolina last week. Polar opposites with offense scoring 30.6PPG (3rd) and defense giving up 30.7PPG (31st).
  23. Baltimore Ravens: Shocking 1-5 start. The defense is sputtering and offense can’t replicate last year’s dominance. Harbaugh’s defense has allowed 37+ points in four of six games this season. They gave up 37 or more points just two times prior to this season dating back to 2022. No Lamar Jackson is devastating.
  24. Carolina Panthers: 3-3 and better than last season. There is a light at the end of the tunnel with a 5-4 record dating back to the end of last season.
  25. Cincinnati Bengals: 2-4 and reeling. The desperate Bengals traded for the fossil known as Joe Flacco who couldn’t beat out a pair of average rookies for the starting job in Cleveland. A bottom 5 defense doesn’t help.
  26. Cleveland Browns: 1-5 and lifeless. Offense (27th) is among the league’s worst; defense has been outstanding but how long before they wear down.
  27. Las Vegas Raiders: 2-4 The defense is the bright spot as they allow 5.2YPPL (11th) and rank 10th in DVOA. The offense on the other hand is bottom 5 in most metrics.
  28. New York Giants: 2-4 after an upset win over the Eagles last Sunday. QB Dart has provided a spark for the offense but it’s going to be short-lived as teams get more film on him.
  29. Miami Dolphins: 1-5 and decimated by injuries. Not all the blame can fall on QB Tua as the O-line is atrocious. The defense offers little resistance allowing 6.3YPPL.
  30. New Orleans Saints: 1-5 and may struggle to get 5 wins this season. 30th in total DVOA.
  31. Tennessee Titans: 1-5 and at least has something to build on with rookie QB Cam Ward.
  32. New York Jets: 0-6 and rock bottom – After watching the Jets last week, there isn’t a worse coach in the NFL than Aaron Glenn. QB struggles and defensive lapses make them non-competitive.

Thanks for taking a minute to read our NFL Power rankings and we hope you enjoyed our thoughts on the current NFL landscape. Don’t forget you can take advantage of our NFL pick service weekly here on this website with guaranteed bets – only pay when you win. 


~ Cheers Marty

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NFL Player Prop Bets | QB’s Big Day | Oct 12 2025

Patriots – QB Drake Maye OVER 232.5 Passing Yards vs. Saints

Drake Maye just torched the Bills for 273 yards in a wild upset win last week, and he’s cleared 232.5 passing yards in 3 of his 5 starts this season—his two misses? Barely under by 3 yards in Week 2, and then they blew out the Panthers in Week 4 and sat on the lead. The Saints’ pass D ranks 23rd in opponents’ completion % (69.54%) and 20th in yards per attempt (6.8). They don’t sack QBs much either, averaging just 2.4 per game, so Maye should have time to sling it. Maye’s the 2nd-most accurate QB in the NFL at 73.38% completions, especially now that he’s clicking with Stefon Diggs for 100+ yards the last two weeks straight.

Chargers – QB Justin Herbert OVER 21.5 Rushing Yards vs Dolphins

The Chargers are down to their 3rd and 4th string RB’s in Haskins and Vidal so expect Herbert to pick up the rushing slack on broken plays. Herbert has rushed for 24 or more yards in 4 of five games this season and coming off a 60-yard game against the Commanders. Miami ranks last in the league against the run allowing 174 rushing yards per game. The Dolphins give up 5.6 yards per rush (31st). They simply don’t win in the trenches. Miami has allowed an average of 32.8 rushing yards to opposing QB’s this season and Herberts willingness to run makes this a very attractive prop bet Sunday.

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