Tag: NBA predictions

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NBA free bet | Nov 3rd

ASA play on: Oklahoma City Thunder +6.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 8:10PM ET

The value in the number has us on OKC tonight. These two teams met on Oct 22nd in Denver and the Nuggets were favored by 9-points and won by 5. That means they should be a 1-2-point favorite on the road in this matchup. On the season the Thunder have a net differential of +2PPG, while the Nuggets are negative at -2.9PPG. Denver is 1-3 SU on the road this season with the 3rd worst average MOV of -13PPG. The Nuggets have the worst defensive efficiency rating when away this season. OKC is 3-1 SU at home on the season with an average MOV of +5PPG. The Thunder have won four straight games with a pair of solid wins over the Clippers and big road win in Dallas. In the first meeting this season the Nuggets shot 53% from Deep which is well above their season of 39.4%. We don’t expect a repeat performance for them on the road, plus the Thunder rank 5th in 3-point percentage defense. The Thunder have a budding Star in Shai Gilgeous Alexander who is putting up insane numbers to start the season. Grab the home dog in this one.

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NBA Prop bets Oct 29th

ASA NBA Player Prop OVER 26.5 POINTS – Stephen Curry – Golden State Warriors

ASA has gotten off to a 9-4 YTD start on NBA Player Props. Be sure to check out our site daily for free picks.

This seems like an easy one as long as Curry gets enough minutes in this game, and he should as he is back in his Davidson college State of North Carolina. Curry is averaging 30.8PPG on 48.6% shooting overall and 45.8% from beyond the arc. The Hornets are one of the worst teams in the NBA when it comes to defending Point Guards allowing 28.64PPG to that position. Charlotte has given up those lofty numbers yet have faced just one elite Point Guard this season in Trae Young who scored 28-points. Curry has scored 33+ points in every game but one and that was against a Suns team that has the 4th best defensive efficiency rating in the league. Charlotte is 16th in DEFF.

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NBA Player Prop Bets for Friday, Oct 28th

ASA is 8-3 this season with NBA Player Props – today’s winners below

ASA NBA Player Prop OVER 17.5 POINTS+REBOUNDS – Miles Turner – Indiana Pacers

Let’s start with the Wizards defensive deficiencies when it comes to Centers around the league. Washington has one of the worst rebound rates against Centers and allows the 9th most points to “Bigs”. Turner is coming off an ankle injury prior to the season but saw 24 minutes of action against the Bulls on Wednesday night. He was just 1 of 7 from the field but expect a much better shooting night here in his second game back. Turner is a career 48.8% shooter, including 34.8% from Deep. He did grab 6 rebounds in that game against the Bulls and averages 6.7 lifetime in the NBA.

ASA NBA Player Prop OVER 17.5 POINTS – Nikola Vucevic – Chicago Bulls

We feel this is the best bargain on the board in terms of PP’s and expect a big night from Vucevic against the Spurs. First off, the Spurs are one of the fastest paced teams in the NBA which means plenty of possessions and scoring opportunities for the Bulls. Secondly, as a team the Spurs are one of the worst defensive clubs in the NBA allowing 1.149-points per possession. The Spurs are 3rd worst in the league defending Centers at 26.73PPG allowed. Vucevic is averaging 17.4PPG this season and scored 24-points against a Washington team that is similar to the Spurs in defending centers. Last year in the two meetings against the Spurs, Vucevic scored 15 and 18 points respectively which gets us the money here. 

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NBA free bet from ASA Oct 26

ASA NBA free bet for October 26th 2022

ASA play on: OVER 233 San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 8PM ET

This is a home-home series as these same two teams just met on Oct 24th in Minnesota. That game finished with 221 points and had a posted Total of 235. That game could have easily gone over the number but each team had an abnormal quarter. After putting up a combined 124-points in the first half it looked like a sure Over bet winner. Then the Wolves managed just 14-points in the 3rd quarter while the Spurs put up 12-points in the 4th. We should see another high scoring affair here with two teams that like to play fast. The Spurs are 4th in pace of play, the T-Wolves are 5th so we know there will be plenty of possession for a high scoring game. Minnesota is 13th in defensive efficiency, the Spurs are 21st so neither are exceptional on that end of the floor. San Antonio is scoring 117PPG, Minnesota is putting up 115.8PPG. Last season when these two teams met they put huge totals in 2 of the four games with 288 and 248-points. The oddsmakers lowered this Total by a few points so let’s grab the value and bet OVER.

Player Prop: OVER 35.5 POINTS + ASSISTS – Donovan Mitchell Cleveland Cavaliers

Let’s start with the Magic defense when it specifically comes to shooting guards. On average the Magic allow 26.23PPG and 8.39APG to shooting guards. That’s a recipe for disaster going up against one of the better SG’s in the NBA in Donovan Mitchell. Mitchell is scoring 33.3PPG and averaging 7.0APG this season. We know he will get plenty of usage tonight as point guard Darius Garland is out. On the season Mitchell averages 38 minutes per game. A unique aspect to this bet is the fact Mitchell could score enough to cash this Over without registering an assist. Overall, Orlando is 23rd in defensive efficiency as a team and they give up over 115PPG so the Cavs should put up a big number in this one.

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NBA Player Prop Tuesday, Oct 25 2022

NBA Player Prop from ASA – OVER 9.5 rebounds Pistons – Isaiah Stewart

ASA PLAY ON: OVER 9.5 REBOUNDS Player Prop: Isaiah Stewart Detroit Pistons – Stewart is averaging 10.67 rebounds per game this season and is the 8th highest rebounder among centers this season. Going back to last season he has had double-digit rebounds in 6 of his last ten games. When it comes to Centers specifically, the Wizards were one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA a year ago. This season the Wiz rank 24th in rebounds allowed per game to Centers at 17.40. Stewart’s minutes are up this season as is his rebounding numbers after averaging an impressive 8.7 boards per game a season ago in 71 games played. The Pistons are one of the highest possessions per game teams in the NBA which also helps our cause here with Stewart’s Over the total NBA Player Prop.

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