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NBA Prediction | OKC Thunder NBA Champions 2025

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ASA NBA Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder: Champions of the 2024-25 NBA Season +700

The Oklahoma City Thunder, coming off an impressive season, have set the stage for what many are predicting to be their championship year in 2024-25. Here’s why the Thunder are not just contenders but our bet to lift the Larry O’Brien Trophy:

Statistical Dominance in 2023-24:

Net Scoring Margin: The Thunder ranked second only behind the Boston Celtics in Net Scoring Margin with a +7.3-scoring margin. This team could not only score at will but also was suffocating opponents defensively.

Offensive and Defensive Efficiency: Finishing third in offensive efficiency, the Thunder’s system under Coach Mark Daigneault has evolved into a machine with great playmaking, shooting, and dynamic scoring. Their fourth-place finish in defensive efficiency highlights a roster that’s not just about flashy plays but also about stifling defense, with the 3rd best Effective Field Goal Percentage D at 52.7%. The Thunder were also tough to score on in the paint, allowing the 6th fewest points per game in the lane at 46.3ppg.

Home Court Advantage:

Record: A staggering 33-8 at home with an average scoring differential of +12.3 points per game speaks volumes. This Thunder team is in line for another 30+ win season on their home court which is one of the best in the NBA. Oklahoma City was 24-17 SU on the road in the regular season with an average plus/minus of +2.3ppg.

Strategic Additions:

Alex Caruso: Known for his defensive prowess and hustle, Caruso’s addition brings a level of tenacity and versatility that’s invaluable. His impact goes beyond stats, often being the catalyst for momentum shifts with his energy and basketball IQ. Caruso hit 40.8% of his 3-point attempts last season in 71 games for the Bulls while scoring 10.1ppg.

Isaiah Hartenstein: Hartenstein’s arrival addresses depth in the front court, adding size, rebounding, and a new dimension to the Thunder’s offensive sets with his passing out of the post. His fit next to Holmgren could revolutionize their defensive schemes, offering versatility against various offensive looks. Hartenstein averaged 8.3 rebounds per game last season with the Knicks and 1.1 blocks per game.

Core Continuity and Growth:

With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren returning, the Thunder maintain their core that’s both young and experienced. Gilgeous-Alexander, after narrowly missing the MVP last season, seems poised for a leap, potentially securing the award this year with the added support.

The Oklahoma City Thunder, with their depth, star power, and unparalleled efficiency, are not just poised to make noise in the playoffs; they’re positioned to end the season as NBA Champions. Their journey this year is not just about potential but about realizing it, making 2024-25 the year the Thunder claim their rightful place at the top of the NBA mountain.

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WNBA Free Bet today | May 24th 2024

ASA WNBA Free play on LA Sparks +1.5 vs Indiana Fever, 10PM ET

Our model as the Sparks favored at home here so we will gladly take the points with the better team. Indiana is 0-5 SU on the season, the Sparks are 1-2 SU. Los Angeles was recently a 2-point favorite at home in their most recent game, which was a win over Washington, who we grade slightly better than the Fever.

L.A.’s two losses have come against an improved Atlanta team and the Champs from a season ago on the road in Las Vegas. Indiana has faced a tough early season slate themselves and have lost two straight close games to Connecticut and Seattle.

The Sparks will have the two best players on the floor in Derica Hamby who is averaging 22PPG, 13.7 RPG and 2.0SPG and has a pair of double-doubles this season. Kia Nurse is averaging 16.3PPG on 54.5% shooting overall and 45% from beyond the Arc. Her 3PT% is second best in the league among players with 6 or more 3PT attempts per game.

L.A. has won 8 of the last ten meetings outright with the Fever and we like them to get a W at home tonight.

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NBA Playoff Free Bet | May 10th 2024 | Nuggets vs Wolves

ASA NBA free play Minnesota Timberwolves ML -185 vs Denver Nuggets, 9:30PM ET

I’m going to trust my eyes in this one and think the T’Wolves are the better team right now and the Nuggets don’t have the depth to compete here.

LACK OF DEPTH

The Nuggets won last year’s Championship but had depth with Bruce Brown and Jeff Green providing big minutes off the bench. They don’t have that option this year and Jamal Murray clearly isn’t 100% healthy.

JOKER

Everything starts with Jokic on the offensive end of the court for Denver and….

Minnesota has three Bigs (Towns, Gobert and Reid) to throw at Jokic and wear him down.

BREAKING DOWN GAMES 1 & 2

In Game 1 the Nuggets shot 47% overall and 42% and still only managed 99-points. In Game 2 the Wolves defense was smothering (without Gobert) and they held the Nuggets to 35% overall and 30% from Deep and allowed just 80-points.

POSTSEASON

Minnesota currently has the 4th best Defensive Net Rating in the postseason and the 2nd best Offensive Net Rating. In comparison, the Nuggets rank 8th in DNR, 12th in Offensive Net Rating.

SEASONAL

Surprisingly, Denver has not been great off a loss this season with a 13-14 ATS record.

Minnesota is 32-11 SU on their home court this season and have the 4th best average Margin of Victory at +8.7PPG.

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NBA Playoffs Free Bet | May 7th 2024

ASA free NBA Playoffs bet UNDER 112 1ST HALF POINTS – Mavericks at Thunder, 9:30PM ET

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Both teams have favored the Under in the 1st halves of games in the Playoffs with Dallas staying Under in 4 of six games against the Clippers, the Thunder played Under in 3 of four vs. the Pelicans.

We can throw out the regular season 1st half totals between these two teams based on injuries and situations. The Mavericks defense has been significantly better down the stretch of the regular season and were much better against the Clippers.

Dallas has a defensive Net rating of 109.5 in the post season which is the 6th best number in the league. The team that has the best defensive Net rating in the Playoffs is OKC at 93.5. The Thunder held the Pelicans to 92, 92, 85 and 89 points in the opening round series.

Dallas is also the 4th slowest paced team in the playoffs at 92 possessions per game. Granted, the Thunder are the 2nd fastest at 95.88 but that number is considerably lower than their regular season possessions per game of 100.5. The value lies with an Under bet in the 1st half of this Game 1.  

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NBA FREE BET | 76ers vs Knicks | April 20, 2024

ASA FREE play on: NY Knicks ML (-140) vs. Philadelphia 76ers, 6PM ET

The 76ers with Joel Embiid barely survived against the Heat in the Play-In game and if it weren’t for a 3-point barrage by Batum (6) they wouldn’t be here right now.

Embiid did not look good and is clearly out of shape after the long layoff from his injury. The Knicks also have the perfect team to attack Embiid who plays drop cover defensively in the pick-n-rolls as they can space the floor with effective shooters.  

The home crowd will be a big factor today as the Knicks are 27-14 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +5.9PPG. Home teams in G1 are on a 55-25 SU run in the first round of the playoffs. Much has been said about the Knicks missing Julius Randall, but we don’t feel it’s a huge factor as they have two big bodies in Hartenstein and Robinson to wear down Embiid.

Another big key for New York is that they have OG Anunoby back on the court. The Knicks are 20-3 SU with Anunoby in the lineup this season. NY is 7th in offensive efficiency compared to the 76ers who sit 13th. In terms of defensive efficiency, the Knicks hold an advantage there too ranking 9th versus 11th. New York won 3 of four against the Sixers this season and we expect them to win Game 1 on Saturday.

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