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NFL Free Bet | Cardinals vs Seahawks | Nov 9 2025

#267 ASA FREE PLAY ON Arizona Cardinals +7 over Seattle Seahawks, Sunday at 4 PM ET

The Cards are on a nice little roll since Jacoby Brissett took over at QB.  They have covered 3 straight and took 2 of the NFL’s best teams (Indy and Green Bay) to the wire in close losses.  They’re catching Seattle a bit overvalued right now and at the top of their market in our opinion.  We’ve been pro Seahawks all season and won with them on a few occasions but this is a fade spot.  They’ve won and covered 6 of their last 7 games and this is just the 2nd time this season they’ve been favored by more than 3.5 points.  To put this number in perspective, the Seahawks were favored by the same number (-7 or -7.5) at home vs New Orleans a few weeks ago.  The Cards sit 12 spots ahead of the Saints via the DVOA metric yet we’re getting the same number.  Seattle is 2-2 at home this season (4-0 on the road) and their numbers here at Lumen Field as they average 53 fewer YPG and almost a full YPP less (0.8).  Three of their four home games have been decided by 1 score.  Since Brissett took over, the Arizona offense is averaging 357 YPG, 26 PPG, and they lead the league in 3rd down conversion rate during that 3 game stretch.  Prior to that with Kyler Murray at QB, the Cardinals were averaging 288 YPG and 20.6 PPG.  We think Arizona does enough to hang around here and cover this inflated number.  Take the points. 

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NFL Free play | Dolphins vs Falcons | Oct 26 2025

#268 ASA NFL FREE PLAY ON Atlanta Falcons -7 over Miami Dolphins, Sunday a 1 PM ET

We like the Falcons to bounce back after a poor showing last Sunday @ San Francisco.  Atlanta opened as a dog last week vs the Niners and flipped to a small favorite but didn’t show up to play losing 20-10.  The yardage was dead even at 4.9 YPP (season low for the Falcons) and Atlanta was shut out on downs in their final 2 drives.  Prior to that loss, the Falcons had topped Washington by 7 and Buffalo by 10 (2 playoff caliber teams), both at home.  Miami is in a freefall.  They are now 1-6 SU on the season after getting rolled 31-6 @ Cleveland last week.  It was the first time in 11 games the Browns topped 17 points.  This will be the Browns 3rd road game in 4 weeks and they are 0-4 SU on the road (3 of those losses coming by double digits).  The Fins have internal issues and head coach McDaniel is on the hot seat to say the least.  Seems like this team is very close to imploding and if they get down in this game, it might be lights out.  Atlanta is one of 2 teams that ranks in the top 7 in total offense and total defense (other is KC).  Miami ranks 26th in total offense and 27th in total defense.  This is a terrible match up for the Dolphins defense as they rank dead last defending the run allowing 160 YPG on the ground and they are facing an Atlanta offense that averages 137 YPG rushing (4th in the NFL). No Penix Jr, No problem with vet Kirk Cousins under center. Atlanta RB Robinson (6th in the NFL in rushing yards) had a poor outing vs SF (2.9 YPC) but he should have a field day vs this defense.  Miami’s offense will be without one of the key weapons, TE Waller, and they’re already missing Tyreek Hill.  Now facing the #2 defense (Atlanta allows just 265 YPG) we expect a struggle.  Atlanta wins this home tilt by more than a TD. 

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NFL Power Rankings | Oct 14 2025

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Point Train – NFL Power Rankings (Post-Week 6, 2025)

Here is a short NFL rankings based on what we’ve seen through games played on October 13th. These rankings are fluid and will fluctuate weekly. We are reflecting on their performance and alignment with analytics as of October 14, 2025.

  1. Detroit Lions 4-2: Explosive offense led to 4 straight wins and the losses have been respectable at Green Bay and Kansas City. (+49 total points differential) . Top-tier efficiency (3rd DVOA) despite early coaching hiccups. A legitimate contender.
  2. Seattle Seahawks 4-2: Quietly a current contender in the NFC. The Seahawks rank 1st DVOA overall. Lost to 5-1 Tampa Bay and 4-2 49ers. Top-10 in offensive/defensive YPPL.
  3. LA Rams: 4-2 after late-game bad breaks – blocked FGs, OT loss – or could be 6-0. Elite efficiency (top-10 YPPL both sides) makes them a sneaky contender with a veteran QB and a coach that knows how to win.
  4. Indianapolis Colts: High-octane offense (6.3 YPPL, 1st in scoring 32.3PPG) drives a 5-1 start. Defense lags but improving. “Indiana Jones” nickname fits QB Danny Jones who has played well in Indy (best QBR currently in league). Why isn’t Jones in the MVP conversation (+3000)? What if he leads the Colts to the best record in the AFC?
  5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield’s late-game heroics fuel a 5-1 record despite a +14 point differential. Disappointing defense 16th in Yards p/play allowed.
  6. Philadelphia Eagles: Smoke-and-mirrors 4-2 record with negative -1 point differential. Credit is due for wins against the Rams, Bucs, Chiefs. Questions abound after two straight losses – one to the Giants.
  7. Buffalo Bills: Dropped after a home loss to Patriots and MNF loss to the Falcons. 4-0 start was inflated by weak opponents (3-17 combined). Still a top-6 offense per DVOA. Josh Allen can overcome a lot…just not bad coaching or play defense.
  8. San Francisco 49ers: Injury-plagued but resilient (4-2). Mac Jones (3-1) outshines Purdy (1-1), raising QB questions. Health remains a critical concern.
  9. Green Bay Packers: Solid 4-2 with balanced offense/defense (top-10 in both Offensive/Defensive DVOA). Looked like Super Bowl contender in Weeks 1 & 2, then imploded versus the Browns and defense suspect in tie at Cowboys.
  10. Kansas City Chiefs: Don’t count out the Chiefs after their 3-3 start for the perennial contenders. Offense struggled the first few weeks but is starting to click now. The O took a jump last week going from 5.3YPPL to 5.7YPPL.
  11. Denver Broncos: Scrappy 4-2 squad with underrated defense (6th DVOA). Offense needs consistency, but they’re exceeding expectations and tracking better than my preseason rankings.
  12. Washington Commanders: Not surprised with 3-3 start with flashes of offensive brilliance. Analytics (7th-12th range) suggest they’re a playoff dark horse. They face a tough 3-game stretch at KC, vs. Seattle and Detroit.
  13. Jacksonville Jaguars: Competitive 4-2 team with improving efficiency. Young roster finding its groove and you can’t discredit wins at 49ers and home against the Chiefs. Verdict still out but certainly a contender in the AFC South.
  14. LA Chargers: 4-2 but inconsistent. Injuries are always a major concern in the NFL and the Chargers’ top 4 running backs are out or injured. Not sure a one-dimensional offense can survive in today’s NFL.
  15. New England Patriots: Upset win over Buffalo highlights 4-2 record. Shockingly the offense has outplayed the defense thus far under coach Vrabel. Pats fans should temper their enthusiasm as the other three wins have come against Miami, Carolina and New Orleans.
  16. Pittsburgh Steelers: 4-1 with an offense that ranks bottom 10 in Yards p/play (5.1YPPL) but thrives on turnovers with +1.4 per game (2nd most). The defense is starting to play like a Mike Tomlin unit allowing just 5.2YPPL.
  17. Atlanta Falcons: 3-2 with a pedestrian offense. 2nd year QB Penix Jr ranks 20th in passing YPG, 19th in QBR but has upside and a stud RB in Robinson. The defense rates are much higher in efficiency stats (1st) than traditional numbers.
  18. Minnesota Vikings: 3-2 despite major concerns with their O-line. Offense shows flashes with Wentz providing stability and a loaded WR group. Defensive top 10 in efficiency ratings and 2nd in 3rd down conversion percentage, 8th in Yards p/play allowed and 5th in scored D allowing 19.4PPG.
  19. Houston Texans: Disappointing 2-3 after high expectations. Is the offense for real after putting up 26 and 44 points the past two weeks? Hold on a minute, those numbers come against a Titans D allowing 27PPG (26th) and the Ravens giving up 32PPG (32nd). The defense looks to be real as they’ve held 4 of five opponents to 10-points or less.
  20. Chicago Bears: 3-2 after a 3-game winning streak. The Bears have some positive momentum, but they were outgained in both wins against the Cowboys and Raiders and were +3 in TO’s against Washington.
  21. Arizona Cardinals: 2-4 with the wins coming against Carolina and New Orleans – hardly impressive. One of two teams in the NFL with a losing overall record but a positive point differential (Houston).
  22. Dallas Cowboys: 2-3-1 and a tough team to figure out right now. Shocking tie with Green Bay but needed OT to beat a bad Giants team, held off the Jets two weeks ago then lost at Carolina last week. Polar opposites with offense scoring 30.6PPG (3rd) and defense giving up 30.7PPG (31st).
  23. Baltimore Ravens: Shocking 1-5 start. The defense is sputtering and offense can’t replicate last year’s dominance. Harbaugh’s defense has allowed 37+ points in four of six games this season. They gave up 37 or more points just two times prior to this season dating back to 2022. No Lamar Jackson is devastating.
  24. Carolina Panthers: 3-3 and better than last season. There is a light at the end of the tunnel with a 5-4 record dating back to the end of last season.
  25. Cincinnati Bengals: 2-4 and reeling. The desperate Bengals traded for the fossil known as Joe Flacco who couldn’t beat out a pair of average rookies for the starting job in Cleveland. A bottom 5 defense doesn’t help.
  26. Cleveland Browns: 1-5 and lifeless. Offense (27th) is among the league’s worst; defense has been outstanding but how long before they wear down.
  27. Las Vegas Raiders: 2-4 The defense is the bright spot as they allow 5.2YPPL (11th) and rank 10th in DVOA. The offense on the other hand is bottom 5 in most metrics.
  28. New York Giants: 2-4 after an upset win over the Eagles last Sunday. QB Dart has provided a spark for the offense but it’s going to be short-lived as teams get more film on him.
  29. Miami Dolphins: 1-5 and decimated by injuries. Not all the blame can fall on QB Tua as the O-line is atrocious. The defense offers little resistance allowing 6.3YPPL.
  30. New Orleans Saints: 1-5 and may struggle to get 5 wins this season. 30th in total DVOA.
  31. Tennessee Titans: 1-5 and at least has something to build on with rookie QB Cam Ward.
  32. New York Jets: 0-6 and rock bottom – After watching the Jets last week, there isn’t a worse coach in the NFL than Aaron Glenn. QB struggles and defensive lapses make them non-competitive.

Thanks for taking a minute to read our NFL Power rankings and we hope you enjoyed our thoughts on the current NFL landscape. Don’t forget you can take advantage of our NFL pick service weekly here on this website with guaranteed bets – only pay when you win. 


~ Cheers Marty

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NFL Free Bet today | Titans vs Texans Prediction | Sept 28 2025

#263 ASA NFL FREE today on: Tennessee Titans +7.5 over Houston Texans, Sunday at 1 PM ET

Really tough ask for Houston to win this rivalry game by more than a TD when they simply struggle to score points. 

The Texans rank dead last in the NFL in scoring averaging 12.7 PPG putting up 9, 10 and 19 points in their 3 games this season.  The Texans are 0-3 ATS losing by an average of 4 PPG to the number. 

Tennessee hasn’t been great offensively but they have scored at least 19 points in 2 of their 3 games and that should get it done here.  In those 2 games the Titans faced the LA Rams and Indianapolis, 2 of the  top 5 offenses in the NFL, and couldn’t keep up despite scoring 19 and 20 points. 

That shouldn’t be a case here facing a Houston team that is averaging just 267 YPG (29th), ranks dead last in 3rd down conversion rate at 24% and scores only 1 point for every 21 yards gained (31st). 

This AFC South rivalry has been closely contested with 9 of the last 10 decided by single digits and the dog has covered 7 of the last 9. 

If we can get 2 TD’s from Tennessee, that just might be enough to get this cover in what is expected to be a low scoring game (lowest total on the board at 39)  Take the points with the Titans as ASA’s NFL free bet today.   

TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE BEST BETS TODAY IN THE NFL FROM THE EXPERTS HERE AT ASAWINS.COM!

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NFL player prop bets | Commanders vs Packers | Sept 11 2025

Enjoy a couple of NFL player prop bets for Thursday, September 11th from ASA. Watch weekly for free prop bets and other wagering opportunities from all of the experts here at ASAwins.com

Commanders WR Deebo Samuel Over 4.5 Receptions (+110)

In his debut with the Commanders, Samuel caught 7 of 10 targets for 77 yards. He led the team with a 36% first-read rate (per Fantasy Points Data), indicating he was Daniels’ primary target on over a third of his dropbacks. Additionally, 40% of his targets (4 catches) came behind the line of scrimmage, including two screen passes (per PFF). In Week 1, the Packers’ defense forced Detroit’s Jared Goff into quick, short throws, resulting in a league-low 4.2 average depth of target (ADOT). This aligns perfectly with Samuel’s usage, as his 2.48 yards per route run and 83.8% route participation rate (per Sharp Football Analysis). The Commanders are likely to lean on the pass, with opposing quarterbacks averaging 33.9 pass attempts per game against Green Bay since last season (9th-most in the NFL). Samuel’s projected 7.1 targets rank in the 79th percentile among wide receivers (per EV Analytics). Samuel also thrives against the Packers’ defensive schemes. Since last season, Green Bay has primarily used Cover 2 and Cover 3 coverages. Samuel’s 2024-2025 stats against these coverages are stellar: 20 catches on 26 targets in 129 routes against Cover 3, and 9 catches on 13 targets in 67 routes against Cover 2 (per Sharp Football Analysis). His most common routes—crossers and hitches—have yielded high completion rates against Green Bay, with 83.3% (45/54) on crossers and 82.5% (94/114) on hitches since last season.

Packers WR Matthew Golden Under 30.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

In the Packers’ Week 1 win over the Lions, Golden, a rookie first-round pick, ran routes on just 58% of Green Bay’s dropbacks, earning only 2 targets for a 9% target share (per Fantasy Points Data). He finished with 1 catch for 12 yards, underscoring his limited role in a crowded receiver room. Green Bay’s run-heavy approach was evident, with 54% of offensive snaps being run plays and only 22 dropbacks from Jordan Love, who spreads the ball among multiple pass-catchers, including Jayden Reed (55 receptions, 857 yards in 2024), Romeo Doubs (46 receptions, 601 yards), and Christian Watson (29 receptions, 620 yards).

The Commanders’ secondary allowed only a 60.7% catch rate to wide receivers in 2024, ranking 10th in the NFL (per ESPN). Against Cover 3 schemes, which Washington used on 38% of snaps last season, Golden’s college stats at Texas show modest production: 12 catches on 20 targets for 148 yards across 2024 (per Sports Info Solutions).

With a projected target volume of 2.5-3 (EV Analytics), Golden would need an unusually high yards-per-catch average (12.3+ YPC) to exceed 30.5 yards, unlikely given Washington’s 5.6 yards per target allowed to wide receivers since 2024.

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