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Dallas Cowboys vs Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction | Oct 6th 2024

Cowboys vs Steelers Preview – Player Props

Game Preview:

  • Date: October 6, 2024
  • Time: 8:20 PM ET
  • Location: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Team Analysis:

  • Dallas Cowboys (2-2): Coming off a narrow victory against the New York Giants, the Cowboys are looking to solidify their standing in the NFC East. However, they face significant challenges with key defensive players out, including Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence. This could severely hamper their ability to pressure Justin Fields, making their pass defense particularly vulnerable.
  • Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1): The Steelers are riding high with Justin Fields at quarterback, showing improvement over last year’s performance. Their defense, traditionally one of the league’s best, is expected to exploit the Cowboys’ weakened defensive line. However, their recent loss against the Colts might be a concern, showing they’re not invulnerable.

Key Betting Insights:

  • Spread: The Steelers are favored by 2.5 points at home, reflecting their solid start and the Cowboys’ injury woes. This line movement from an initial 1.5 points indicates growing confidence in Pittsburgh’s ability to cover against a decimated Cowboys defense.
  • Over/Under: Set at 44 points, the total reflects a game that might not see a high-scoring affair due to strong defensive play, especially from Pittsburgh, but with potential for the Steelers to exploit Dallas’s weakened defense.
  • Moneyline: Steelers are listed at -145 to win outright, showing a clear market preference for Pittsburgh, despite the public leaning towards Dallas in terms of bet volume.
  • Public Betting: Interestingly, while more bets are placed on the Cowboys to cover, the money is heavier on the Steelers, suggesting sharp bettors might see value in Pittsburgh covering or winning outright.

Trends and Predictions:

  • Cowboys: Their offense has been inconsistent, with Dak Prescott performing well but needing support from a struggling rushing game. The absence of key defensive players might force them to rely more on their passing game, which could be a problem versus this Steelers D that ranks 5th in completions allowed and 7th in completion percentage allowed.
  • Steelers: Justin Fields has been a revelation, with his dual-threat capabilities potentially exploiting the Cowboys’ defensive gaps. George Pickens has emerged as a primary receiver with 29 targets this season, and is in a in favorable matchups like this one, against a Cowboys defense that ranks 27 in yards/competion at 11.0.

Betting Picks – Player props:

Look at Justin Fields for over 186.5 passing yards if you believe he’ll have to throw more due to the Cowboys’ defensive adjustments. Fields has thrown fover over this number in his last two games against the Chargers and Colts with 245 and 312 passing yards. He attempted over 30 in both games indicating the coaching staff is gaining confidence in his throwing ability.

Steelers WR George Pickens could be a good bet for over his receiving yards (53.5), given his recent performance and the matchup. George Pickens has emerged as a primary receiver with 29 targets this season, and is in a in favorable matchups, against a Cowboys defense that ranks 27 in yards/competion at 11.0. Pickens is averaging 71 receiving yards per game.

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Cowboys vs Giants preview | 9-26-24

Cowboys vs Giants preview

NFL Betting Preview: Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants – September 26, 2024

Cowboys vs Giants Preview Game Overview: The Dallas Cowboys, with a record of 1-2, are set to clash with the New York Giants, also standing at 1-2, in what promises to be a pivotal NFC East matchup on Thursday Night Football at MetLife Stadium. This game could be crucial for both teams looking to gain ground in a competitive division.

Betting Lines and Odds:

  • Spread: Cowboys -4.5
  • Moneyline: Cowboys -300, Giants +250
  • Over/Under: 45 points

Key Betting Insights:

  • Trend Analysis: The Cowboys are 1/2 SU/ATS and coming off an upset loss at home to the Ravens. The Giants, despite their record, have shown moments of competitiveness, and stand 1-2 SU/ATS with a win last week in Cleveland.
  • Team Performance:
    • Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott has been efficient, throwing for 851 yards with 4 touchdowns and 2 INT’s, but the defense has been a concern, particularly against the run allowing 187.5 rushing YPG. This could play into the Giants’ strategy if they can establish their ground game, which has been a problem as they rush for just 105YPG.
    • New York Giants: The Giants have leaned on Devin Singletary, who’s been effective with 197 rushing yards on 4.1 yards per carry. However, QB Danny Jones and their passing game needs to step up against a Cowboys defense that’s been exploited for 44 and 28-points in two straight games.
  • Player Props:
    • Dak Prescott: In the second meeting of the season last year, Prescott threw for 404 yards with 4 TD’s and one INT in a Cowboys 49-17 win against the Giants. We may take a look at Over Prescott’s total passing yards Over in this game against a Giants defense allowign the 13th most passing YPG in 2024.
    • CeeDee Lamb: As a key option for Prescott with 24 targets this season, Lamb’s receiving yards of 78.5 offer value. Lamb and Prescott got into a heated exchange last week and Prescott may focus on getting Lamb the ball against the Giants. Lamb is averaging 101.1 receiving yards p/game in his last 10 games. The last time he faced NY he was targeted 14 times and finished with 151-receiving yards.
    • Jake Ferguson: Ferguson came back last week after missing a game with an injury and received 11 targets from Prescott with 6 receptions for 95-yards. We would consider hit Over 4.5 recepions made before total yardage.
  • Public Sentiment and Betting Patterns:
    • Early money has slightly favored the Cowboys, but there’s significant interest in the Giants covering the spread, especially with home-field advantage in play.
  • Injury Reports and Team News:
    • Keep an eye on the injury report, particularly for key defensive players on both sides, which could significantly impact the game’s flow and betting lines.

Betting Insights:

  • Spread: The Cowboys opened (-5.5) are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS the last ten meetings with the Giants and have won 6 in a row.
  • Over/Under: The total opened at 43.5 points. This series is on a 7-3 Over run with last years two games finishing with 40 total points on this field and 66-points when they met in Dallas. The last 4 meetings in New York have stayed Under.
  • Prop Bets: Focus on Prescott’s passing stats and Lamb’s receiving yards, along with Ferguson’s targets in this one, against this Giants secondary that allowed 10.0-yards per reception a year ago, 9th highest number in the NFL. Maybe also, consider Singletary’s rushing yards or carries if the Giants commit to the running game.

Conclusion: Always consider the latest team news, especially regarding injuries, which could sway the game’s outcome significantly. Remember, while trends and stats guide, football’s unpredictability means no bet is guaranteed. Enjoy the game and bet responsibly!

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RAVENS vs COWBOYS PREDICTION | FREE BET | 9-22-24

NFL FREE BET – Baltimore Ravens -1 vs. Dallas Cowboys prediction, Sunday Sept 22nd 2024

The Ravens were many experts picks and one of the betting favorites to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl this season. With a loss on Sunday the Ravens would fall to 0-3 SU and be in serious trouble of missing the postseason.

Dallas won their opener in Cleveland against a bad Browns team then were destroyed last week at home by the Saints. New Orleans ran through the Dallas D for 190 yards while Saints QB Carr dissected them through the air with 11/16 passing for 242 yards.

Baltimore will pound the football against the soft interior of the Cowboys defense that ranked in the bottom half of the league in stopping the run in 2023. Baltimore led the league in rushing yards a year ago at 156.4 at 5.0YPR. This season the Ravens are averaging 5.7YPR (3rd) and 168 rushing yards per game. The Ravens have outgained their first two opponents by over 200+ total yards and have the 11th best yards per play differential in the NFL.

In comparison, the Cowboys have a negative yards per play differential of -0.4. The Ravens defense has allowed less than a 50-yards rushing average in their first two games and will bottle up a Cowboys run game that averages just 85RYPG.

The Cowboys will want to throw often in this game, but the Ravens pass defense allowed the fewest passing yards per attempt last season and ranked 8th in passing yards allowed p/game.

Baltimore clearly has the coaching advantage and Lamar Jackson has owned the NFC with a 18-1 ATS run. Back the desperate team here.

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AFC Championship Bet | Cincinnati Bengals 9-1 odds | By Point Train

AFC Champions Longshot: Cincinnati Bengals +900 – By Point Train Consulting

Similar to our NFC prediction about the Falcons, scheduling plays a crucial role in our longshot pick for the AFC Champion, the Cincinnati Bengals. According to our metrics, the Bengals will face the 5th easiest schedule this season, a stark contrast to the tough schedule they had last year. Despite QB Joe Burrow being less than 100% for much of the season, the Bengals still managed to secure a 9-8 SU record. In 2023, they ranked 11th in total DVOA with an average point differential of -1.1 PPG.

We believe this season’s Bengals could resemble the 2022 team that went 12-4 SU in the regular season and narrowly lost to the Chiefs 20-23 in the AFC Championship game. That year, the Bengals were 4th in offensive DVOA and 7th in defensive DVOA. In today’s NFL, where offense reigns supreme, the Bengals have the firepower to challenge the Chiefs for the AFC title. With QB Burrow back from injury and two top-tier WRs in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, the Bengals’ offense is a formidable force. Zack Moss, who rushed for 794 yards with the Colts last season, will take charge in the backfield.

While the Bengals’ defense regressed in 2023, much of that can be attributed to their tough schedule, with 11 of their 17 games against teams in the top half of the league in scoring. Despite this, they allowed just 22.6 PPG, below the combined average of 25.1 PPG of the league’s top 15 teams. Cincinnati made a few significant improvements on the defensive side of the football including a revamped secondary and should be a top 13 unit in 2024.

The Bengals’ primary challenge in winning the AFC North will be the Ravens, who won 13 games last season under John Harbaugh. However, within the division, both the Browns and Steelers have significant quarterback concerns and may struggle to maintain winning records. While the Chiefs, Bills, and Dolphins are serious contenders, the Bengals can match their offensive prowess if Burrow stays healthy. The Bengals have a legitimate shot at representing the AFC in the Super Bowl.

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NFL Prediction | NFC Champions | Atlanta Falcons

By Point Train Consulting

NFL longshot – NFC Champions – Atlanta Falcons +1300

The schedule plays an important role here for the Falcons as they face one of, if not the easiest schedule in the NFL this season. Atlanta was 7-10 last season with six of those losses coming in one score games. Despite the losing record the Falcons had an average differential of minus -3.1PPG over the course of entire season.

The addition of QB Kirk Cousins was a huge acquisition in the offseason and should be the missing link for the Falcons offense that ranked 22nd in the NFL in passing yards per game last season and 28th in completion percentage. Before getting injured, Cousins, was 216 of 311 passing (70%) for 2,331 yards with 18 TD’s to 5 INT’s and those types of numbers will translate to wins in the NFC. The Falcons have our 5th best rated offensive line this season which should provide a clean pocket for Cousins and open running lanes for Bijan Robinson, who rushed for over 970 yards in 2023.

Defensively the Falcons were solid a year ago ranking 10th in Yards Allowed p/Game overall, 7th in Yards p/Play allowed at 5.0Y.P.P.L. Atlanta’s defense did a great job of getting off the field ranking 4th in 3rd down conversion allowed p/Game at 4.5.

The Falcons should win the NFC South and have a very favorable overall record at the end of the regular season. The teams that are favored over the Falcons to come out of the NFC are the: 49ers (+250), Lions (+550), Eagles (+700), Cowboys (+700) and Packers (+800) and each of those teams could face serious obstacles this season. The Niners face a difficult schedule and the NFC West should be better this season so a repeat Super Bowl bid may be tough for San Francisco. The Lions should see a regression in their win total after a surprise season a year ago and a horrific defense. The Cowboys will do Cowboys thing again and Green Bay may be fool’s gold with a overrated QB in Jordan Love. The Eagles are the biggest threat in the NFC in our opinion.

Atlanta could conceivably end up being the host in the NFC Championship game and if they get to that point, we will have a great opportunity to bet back if need be. At +1300 this is a very viable option for a future bet on the Atlanta Falcons.

Don’t miss any of Point Train’s NFL action this season after coming off a tremendous season a year ago of plus +44.6 Net Units of profits and a 32-20 streak to end the year. Check out the winning offers here

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