Tag: college football predictions

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College Football Week 0 Previews | By ASA

Florida State vs. Georgia Tech Betting Preview

THE GAME

Florida State (13-1 SU & 8-6 ATS last season) vs

Georgia Tech (7-6 SU & 8-5 ATS last season)

Saturday, Aug 24th at 12 PM ET – @ Dublin, Ireland

THE LINES – Florida State (-10.5) / O/U [55.5] 

FLORIDA STATE OFFENSE – 32.8 PPG (23rd) / 392.2 YPG (54th) / 6.0 YPP (36th) / 12.0 YPPT (12th)

FSU OFFENSIVE NOTES  – FSU’s starting QB this year is DJ Uiagalelei who previously was the starter at Clemson and Oregon State / FSU is ranked 81st in returning offensive production per ESPN S&P+ / FSU lost top 2 WR’s Coleman & Wilson both to the NFL – new starting WR’s are transfers from Bama who had 162 yards receiving last year & LSU who did not play last year / The Seminoles return 4 starters on the offensive line and they’ve combined to start 190 career games which is 3rd most nationally.

FLORIDA STATE DEFENSE – 19.8 PPG (17th) / 340.2 YPG (31st) / 4.9 YPP (23rd) / 17.2 YPPT (12th)

FSU DEFENSIVE NOTES – FSU returns 5 starters on defense and loses 6 of their top 9 tacklers from last season / The Noles bring back 50% of their overall tackles from last season which is 95th in the country / Florida State lost 5 starters in their defensive front 7 but pulled in replacement transfers from Georgia (DE who had 12 tackles last season) and Auburn (LB who had 28 tackles last season) / FSU finished in the top 20 nationally in pass defense last year but outside the top 60 in rush defense.

GEORGIA TECH OFFENSE – 29.7 PPG (43rd) / 411.8 YPG (36th) / 6.0 YPP (36th) / 13.9 YPPT (49th)

GEORGIA TECH OFFENSIVE NOTES – GT is ranked 7th in the nation in returning offensive production per ESPN SP+ / QB Haynes King is back after throwing for over 2800 yards and rushing for over 800 yards last season / Tech led the ACC in rushing last year averaging 198 YPG / The Jackets bring back 4 starting offensive linemen who have combined for 128 career starts (13th in the country) / They return 86% of their offensive yards from last year which is 11th most in the nation.

GEORGIA TECH DEFENSE – 30.8 PPG (100th) / 449.3 YPG (123rd) / 6.2 YPP (118th) / 14.6 YPPT (58th)

GEORGIA TECH DEFENSIVE NOTES – Tech finished 130th last season (out of 133 teams) defending the run allowing 223 YPG on the ground / GT has new DC Tyler Santucci who came over from Duke so he has some familiarity with FSU / Santucci will mainly run an aggressive 4-2-5 scheme / His Duke defense finished 18th nationally last year allowing 20 PPG / The Yellow Jackets ranked 105th in returning defensive production per ESPN SP+ / The Tech defense allowed at least 400 total yards in 10 of their 13 games last year.

THE GAME

SMU vs. Nevada Betting Preview

SMU (11-3 SU & 8-6 ATS last season) vs

Nevada (2-10 SU & 6-6 ATS last season)

Saturday, Aug 24th at 8 PM ET

THE LINES – SMU (-24.5) / O/U [56]

SMU OFFENSE – 36.4PPG (10th) / 446.9YPG (18th) / 6.0YPP (37th) / 12.3YPPT (12th)

SMU OFFENSIVE NOTES –  8 returning starters including QB Stone. SMU’s offense will be led by quarterback Preston Stone, who returns from a late season injury last season, after throwing for nearly 3,200YDS w/28 TD’s to 6 INT’s. With a talented receiving corps (averaged 270.4PYPG / 30th in 2023) and a solid offensive line, the Mustangs are expected to put up big numbers through the air. The Mustang return their three top rushers including Jaylan Knighton who rushed for over 750-yards last season. SMU averaged 176.5RYPG (35th).

SMU DEFENSE – 19.2PPG (14th) / 315.5YPG (14th) / 4.5YPP (7th) / 16.5YPPT (21st)

SMU DEFENSIVE NOTES – The Mustangs went from allowing 6.1YPP in 2022 to giving up just 4.5YPP in 2023 (7th). The defense returns 7 starters from last year’s unit that ranked top 21 in several key categories. SMU’s defense did a great job getting off the field by holding opponents to 4.1 3rd down conversions per game (13th).

NEVADA OFFENSE – 18.4PPG (119th) / 303.1YPG (119th) / 4.3YPP (127th) / 16.5YPPT (109th)

NEVADA OFFENSIVE NOTES – The Wolfpack have struggled in recent years, including last season when they won 2 games, leading to a coaching change and an overhauled roster. Nevada had the 124th worst average point differential per game of minus -15.1PPG. QB Brendon Lewis returns for the Wolfpack who threw for 1,313 yards with 2 TD/6 INT and a passer rating of 33.3 (117th). The running game is their strength with their top two rushers (Dollars & Bianco) returning. The offensive line allowed 3.8 sacks per game last season (127th) and didn’t provide the running backs many open holes as they averaged 3.3YPR (117th).  

NEVADA DEFENSE – 33.5PPG (114th) / 440.9YPG (118th) / 6.7YPP (131st) / 13.2YPPT (96th)

NEVADA DEFENSIVE NOTES – Head coach Jeff Choate has a solid background defensively and has his work cut out for him this season. The Wolfpack have two DL starters returning, along with their corps of linebackers. The secondary needs to be completely rebuilt and will be their defensive Achilles heel. Nevada allowed 348.5PYPG (96th), 64.7% completion percentage (111th) and 8.4 yards per pass attempt (118th).

YPP = Yards Per Play, YPPT = Yards Per Point

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College Football Free Bet – Friday Sept 23

POINT TRAIN FRIDAY OPINION PLAY ONLY: Boise State @ UTEP @ 9PM ET

WAGER – BOISE STATE -16

RATING – Opinion

  • This is one of those games you end up over-thinking and not betting the Side you should which is Boise State in this case.
  • Both teams have played New Mexico with drastically different outcomes. Boise beat UNM 31-14 in New Mexico and outgained them by +175-total yards as a 17-point favorite.
  • UTEP was at UNM last weekend and lost 10-27 as a 2-point favorite. The Miners outgained Lobos by 55-yards.
  • Last year at home the Broncos were -25-point favorites at home and won 54-13 with +130-yard advantage.
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ASA Big Ten Predictions 2022

2022 BIG TEN CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS

  • Ohio State -225
  • Michigan +700
  • Wisconsin +1200              
  • Penn State +1400
  • Nebraska +2000
  • Iowa +2000
  • Minnesota +2500
  • Michigan State +2500
  • Purdue +3000
  • Maryland +15000
  • Illinois +20000
  • Indiana +25000
  • Rutgers +30000
  • Northwestern +30000

Ohio State (11-2 LY) is the Big Ten favorite for a reason. They didn’t win it last season so expect them to be highly motivated, they return 76% of their production overall, and had the best offensive efficiency in the nation, scored 45.7PPG (1st) and averaged 561.5YPG (1st).

Above all, the Buckeyes defense will need to be better in they want to win the National Championship as they allowed 336YPPG which was 52nd while allowing 22.8PPG (31st).

Ohio State is +$300 to win the National Championship but that is not enough to warrant an investment now.

Worth a look is Buckeyes QB CJ Stroud as the potential Heisman winner (+250) Stroud completed nearly 71% of his passes for over 3,800 total yards with 38 TD’s to only 5 INT’s last season and will put up huge number again this season.

BIG 10 CHAMPION – LONGSHOT – Wisconsin Badgers +1200

Going back to 2011 the Badgers have made it to the Big Ten Championship game 6 times, the same as Ohio State. The Buckeyes have won 5 titles, the Badgers 2.

QB CONCERNS:

QB Graham Mertz is undoubtably the biggest question for the Badgers heading into the season, but he was solid in the spring.

Mertz will have to be much better this season after throwing 10 INT’s to 9 TD’s a year ago. Wisconsin ranked 52nd in OEFF, had the 18th best rushing YPG average at 210.8RYPG, but ranked 117th in passing YPG at 160.2PYPG. Behind Mertz is Chase Wolf a redshirt senior.

BADGER GROUND ATTACK: Top 22 in 4 of the past 5 seasons

Wisconsin may have the best running back in the country in Braelon Allen 1,268 rushing yards on a 6.8 YPA average with 12 TD’s last season. (RB trio includes: Mellusi, Guerendo). The have depth on the offensive line which are historically Wisconsin’s strength.

BADGER DEFENSE:

The defense under Jim Leonard will again be one of the best in the nation. Wisconsin allowed 7 or fewer points in 5 of 13 games and 16pts or less in 9 games and gave up just 16.2PPG which was 3rd best in CFB.

The Badger’s defense was 3rd in defensive efficiency a year ago, 1st in yards per play allowed at 4.0YPPL and allowed just 65.4 rushing yards per game which ranked 1st in the nation.  Wisconsin did a great job of keeping opposing offenses off the field, ranking 4th in Opponents 3rd down conversions per game at 3.8.

BADGERS HOME DOMINANCE:

The Badgers are 61-11 SU at home since 2011 and they’ve won those games by an average of 21.4PPG. The only Big Ten team with a better home record in that span is Ohio State at 68-6 (+26.1PPG).

In the last ten years the Badgers have the 11th best overall record at 104-39, +14.4PPG. The only Big 10 team with a better record in that same time frame is Ohio State at 123-20, +20.2PPG.

BIG TEN OVER/UNDER PREDICTION:

PURDUE BOILERMAKERS OVER 7.5 WINS – Purdue (9-4 SU last year) was top 31 in both DEFF and OEFF per footballoutsiders and return 70% of their production from last year’s squad. They have a favorable schedule and don’t face Michigan, Michigan State or Ohio State this season and get Penn State and Iowa at home. The Boilermakers have a great QB in Aidan O’Connell who threw for over 3,700 yards last season with a 23-8 TD/INT ratio and he should put up big numbers again in 2022-23.