ASA NBA Free bet – play on Cleveland Cavaliers -7 vs Chicago Bulls, 7:40pm ET
If you are a value numbers bettor then this play is for you. These same two teams just met on Wednesday in Chicago with the Cavs favored by -5.5 points. The Bulls won that game 127-111 but the line on the game is what has our attention, not the outcome. If Cleveland was favored by -5.5 in Chicago that means they should be at least -13 on their home court. In fact, the Cavs were just favored by -12.5 at home against the Hornets which is a fair comparison. Granted, the Cavaliers aren’t playing their best basketball right now but this team won 64 games a year ago with the best record in the Eastern Conference. The Cavs have a season long eDIFF (efficiency differential) of +2.7 which ranks them 11th best in the NBA. Cleveland is 45-17 SU their last 52 home games with an average MOV of +8.3ppg. Chicago is a below .500 team at 11-15 SU on the season with an eDIFF of minus -5 which is 23rd overall in the NBA. The Bulls are a slightly better than average shooting team at 47.1% on the season but had an uncharacteristically great night against the Cavs on Wednesday, hitting 56% from the field. Chicago is 4—9 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of -4.3ppg. The Cavs had won 5 in a row in this series prior to Wednesday and we expect them to get back on track tonight with a revenge win by double-digits.
ASAwins NBA free pick on: Atlanta Hawks +5 at Orlando Magic, 7:10pm ET
This is a rematch from last season’s 7 vs 8 playoff meeting which the Magic won 120-95. Atlanta has a rebuilt roster and is expected by many experts to make a strong playoff run this season. The Hawks added Porzingis, Alexander-Walke and Kennard to the roster and also get Jalen Johnson back from injury, who was having an All-Star type season a year ago before getting hurt. Orlando also made a big splash in the offseason with the addition of Desmond Bane who will be a great fit for the Magic. These teams suffered different fates in their season openers with the Hawks getting blown out at home by the Raptors, while the Magic beat instate rivals the Miami Heat. We think it’s going to take some time for the Hawks to adjust to the new players on the roster while the Magic’s will be seamless. Orlando was 22-19 SU at home last season with an average +/- of +2.1ppg. Atlanta was 19-23 SU on the road a year ago with an average MOV of minus -1.1ppg. The home team won and covered the last three meetings between these two teams a year ago and the Magic own a 40-18 ATS record at home as a chalk dating back to 2023 with an average MOV in those games of +10.7ppg. We won’t bite on the revenge angle here and will lay the points with the Magic as today’s NBA free pick.
LA CLIPPERS OVER 49.5 WINS (-120) – The Clippers are going to be better this season than they were a year ago when they won 50 games. They lost Norman Powell to the Heat but added Bradley Beal, Chris Paul and Brook Lopez. They also get a full year with John Collins in the lineup after trading for him midway through the season last year. The health of aging Kahwi Leonard is always a concern but this deep roster can overcome load management games with some of the vets resting nights. Los Angeles was 6th in average margin of victory last season at +4.7PPG and had the 5th best Efficiency Differential at +4.8.
MILWAUKEE BUCKS OVER 43.5 WINS (+100) – The one caveat that could derail this season long win total bet is if Giannis Antetokounmpo demands a trade mid-season. The Bucks added a few key pieces in the offseason with Miles Turner, Cole Anthony and Gary Harris along with bringing back Thanasis Antetokounmpo (to appease Giannis). Milwaukee had the 11th best Efficiency Differential in the NBA a year ago at +2.4 and won 48 games. The Eastern Conference is going to be down this season with Super Star players Jayson Tatum (Celtics) and Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers) sidelined. The Bucks have won 44+ games every season dating back to the 2017-18 season. Giannis was a top 3 player last season in Value Index and Usage percentage. If he stays…the Bucks win 50.
TORONTO RAPTORS OVER 39.5 WINS (-110) – The Raptors had the 9th most missed games due to injuries last season and still managed to win 30 games. If this team can remain healthy we like them to get to 40+ wins and make the playoffs as a 6-8 seed. The starting lineup of Quickley, Barrett, Ingram, Barnes and Poeltl is solid. Ingram and Barnes are All-Star caliber players capable of averaging 22+ points per game.
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS UNDER 47.5 WINS (-122) – The Warriors are obviously a public team and their win total reflects a bump of a few wins making them a value UNDER team. Father time is undefeated and Steph Curry, Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler and Al Horford aren’t getting any younger. This team was still elite defensively a year ago with the 7th best Defensive Efficiency rating in the regular season, but their offense was average (15th in OEFF). The Warriors won 48 games a year ago but it’s going to be tough to get to that number with this aging roster. And let’s face it, Golden State isn’t concerned about winning the division or the Western Conference, they want to be fresh come playoff time and just have a seat at the table.
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ASA NBA predictionCleveland Cavaliers (+350) to win the Eastern Conference Cleveland made the biggest splash of any team before the trade deadline, acquiring James Harden from the Clippers in early February. The trade has sparked the Cavs offense who is averaging 130ppg over the first three games that the 11-time All Star has played. Donovan… Read more: NBA prediction Cleveland Cavaliers Eastern Conf Champs +350
ASA’s NFL News & Notes – Oct 23 2025 CHICAGO BEARS – The Bears topped New Orleans 26-14 on Sunday and have now won 4 straight games. Believe it or not, that their longest winning streak in 6 years! How have they done it? Turnovers. They have at least 3 takeaways in all 4 of their… Read more: NFL News & Notes | Oct 23 2025
NBA SEASON LONG WIN TOTAL BETS LA CLIPPERS OVER 49.5 WINS (-120) – The Clippers are going to be better this season than they were a year ago when they won 50 games. They lost Norman Powell to the Heat but added Bradley Beal, Chris Paul and Brook Lopez. They also get a full year… Read more: NBA WIN TOTAL BETS | 2025-26 FUTURES
ASA NBA Future Bet: Nuggets at +700: A Championship Steal with Upgraded Depth and Defense The Denver Nuggets sit at +700 odds to win the 2025-26 NBA Championship (implied probability ~12.5%), offering solid value for a team that’s reloaded around Nikola Jokić after a heartbreaking seven-game loss to the Thunder in the 2024-25 Western Conference… Read more: NBA Championship Bet | Nuggets +700 | 2025-26
Point Train – NFL Power Rankings (Post-Week 6, 2025) Here is a short NFL rankings based on what we’ve seen through games played on October 13th. These rankings are fluid and will fluctuate weekly. We are reflecting on their performance and alignment with analytics as of October 14, 2025. Thanks for taking a minute to… Read more: NFL Power Rankings | Oct 14 2025
ASA NBA Future Bet:Nuggets at +700: A Championship Steal with Upgraded Depth and Defense
The Denver Nuggets sit at +700 odds to win the 2025-26 NBA Championship (implied probability ~12.5%), offering solid value for a team that’s reloaded around Nikola Jokić after a heartbreaking seven-game loss to the Thunder in the 2024-25 Western Conference Semifinals.
Fresh off a 50-32 regular season that secured the No. 4 seed, Denver’s elite offense—ranking 4th in offensive efficiency (OEFF) last year at 116.3 points per 100 possessions—remains one of the league’s best, but their defensive woes (22nd in defensive efficiency, DEFF, at 114.5) needed improvement. Fast-forward to the offseason: the Nuggets aggressively addressed depth and perimeter D, transforming a top-heavy roster into a balanced contender poised for another title run.
In the 2023-24 championship season, they finished 5th in OEFF and 8th in DEFF. Last year’s defensive drop-off correlated with thin bench minutes, but new additions flip the script. Trading Michael Porter Jr. (a high-usage scorer plagued by inconsistency – not a great defender) to Brooklyn for Cam Johnson nets a defensive upgrade—Johnson posted a career-best 18.8 PPG in 2024-25 while ranking in the 85th percentile for defensive versatility, per NBA Advanced Stats, adding switchable wings to clog passing lanes.
Re-signing Bruce Brown (the 2023 Finals X-factor) brings back gritty two-way play, while signing Tim Hardaway Jr. (fresh off a stint with Detroit) injects 40% three-point shooting (on 5.5 attempts per game last season) to stretch floors and punish help defense. Swapping Dario Šarić for Jonas Valančiūnas from Sacramento provides Jokić his best backup big ever—a rebounding machine (9.3 RPG for his career) who can anchor the paint with Jokic on the bench. These moves boost bench net rating by an estimated +4.2 points per 100 possessions (via Cleaning the Glass projections), directly targeting last year’s -3.1 non-Jokić minutes.
With Jokić entering his prime (projected for another MVP-caliber 26-12-9 line) and a healthier Jamal Murray, Denver’s now built for playoff grind. At +700, they’re undervalued and a solid bet to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy and pocket that sweet payout.
ASAwins NBA Service – Some of the best betting advice in the biz!
Proven Success: 7 of the last 8 NBA seasons delivered profitable results!
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ASA NBA predictionCleveland Cavaliers (+350) to win the Eastern Conference Cleveland made the biggest splash of any team before the trade deadline, acquiring James Harden from the Clippers in early February. The trade has sparked the Cavs offense who is averaging 130ppg over the first three games that the 11-time All Star has played. Donovan… Read more: NBA prediction Cleveland Cavaliers Eastern Conf Champs +350
ASA’s NFL News & Notes – Oct 23 2025 CHICAGO BEARS – The Bears topped New Orleans 26-14 on Sunday and have now won 4 straight games. Believe it or not, that their longest winning streak in 6 years! How have they done it? Turnovers. They have at least 3 takeaways in all 4 of their… Read more: NFL News & Notes | Oct 23 2025
NBA SEASON LONG WIN TOTAL BETS LA CLIPPERS OVER 49.5 WINS (-120) – The Clippers are going to be better this season than they were a year ago when they won 50 games. They lost Norman Powell to the Heat but added Bradley Beal, Chris Paul and Brook Lopez. They also get a full year… Read more: NBA WIN TOTAL BETS | 2025-26 FUTURES
ASA NBA Future Bet: Nuggets at +700: A Championship Steal with Upgraded Depth and Defense The Denver Nuggets sit at +700 odds to win the 2025-26 NBA Championship (implied probability ~12.5%), offering solid value for a team that’s reloaded around Nikola Jokić after a heartbreaking seven-game loss to the Thunder in the 2024-25 Western Conference… Read more: NBA Championship Bet | Nuggets +700 | 2025-26
Point Train – NFL Power Rankings (Post-Week 6, 2025) Here is a short NFL rankings based on what we’ve seen through games played on October 13th. These rankings are fluid and will fluctuate weekly. We are reflecting on their performance and alignment with analytics as of October 14, 2025. Thanks for taking a minute to… Read more: NFL Power Rankings | Oct 14 2025
ASA free NBA Playoffs bet UNDER 112 1ST HALF POINTS – Mavericks at Thunder, 9:30PM ET
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Both teams have favored the Under in the 1st halves of games in the Playoffs with Dallas staying Under in 4 of six games against the Clippers, the Thunder played Under in 3 of four vs. the Pelicans.
We can throw out the regular season 1st half totals between these two teams based on injuries and situations. The Mavericks defense has been significantly better down the stretch of the regular season and were much better against the Clippers.
Dallas has a defensive Net rating of 109.5 in the post season which is the 6th best number in the league. The team that has the best defensive Net rating in the Playoffs is OKC at 93.5. The Thunder held the Pelicans to 92, 92, 85 and 89 points in the opening round series.
Dallas is also the 4th slowest paced team in the playoffs at 92 possessions per game. Granted, the Thunder are the 2nd fastest at 95.88 but that number is considerably lower than their regular season possessions per game of 100.5. The value lies with an Under bet in the 1st half of this Game 1.
#648 ASA FREE BET New Mexico -1.5 over San Diego State, Saturday at 2 PM ET We’re getting the Lobos at home off a road loss @ Nevada facing the Aztecs on the road off a huge home win over Utah State which pushed them into a tie for 1st place in the Mountain West. We… Read more: Free Bet | New Mexico vs San Diego State | Feb 28, 2026
#826 ASA FREE BET ON Utah Tech -3.5 over Abilene Christian, Thursday at 9 PM ET Because the WAC only has 7 teams, they play each other 3 times. These 2 have already met twice with Utah Tech handling Abilene Christian both times on the road. We don’t see that changing now that Tech gets… Read more: Free Bet | College Basketball | Feb 26 2026
#784 ASA FREE PLAY ON UCLA +6.5 over Illinois, Saturday at 8 PM ET DON’T MISS OUR BEST BET ACTION DAILY HERE AT ASAWINS.COM! This is just a gigantic home game for the Bruins who are fighting to get into the NCAA tourney. They have 2 more shots to add a high level win to… Read more: College Free Bet | UCLA vs Illinois | February 21st 2026
ASA NBA player prop free bet – OVER 5.5 Rebounds – Jay Huff – Indiana Pacers The Pacers front court depth is thin right now with Zubac and Siakam both out which means Huff will get more opportunities here. Huff is in line for a big game rebounding against the worst rebounding team in the… Read more: NBA player prop free bet | Pacers vs Wizards | Feb 19th 2026
ASAwins NBA Free Bet – February 10th 2026 NBA free Player Prop OVER 23.5 Points + Assists – De’Aaron Fox – San Antonio Spurs Fox and the Spurs get a favorable matchup against the Lakers tonight and this P+A number is low enough that Fox may not need an assist in this game to go… Read more: NBA Free Bet | Player pro bet | De’Aaron Fox – Spurs vs Lakers
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