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AFC North betting prediction | Cleveland Browns Total Wins

AFC North Cleveland Browns Over 9.5 Wins

AFC NORTH

NFL WIN TOTAL – Cleveland Browns OVER 9.5 +120

We like the value in the Over-Under number as the Cleveland Browns win total projections a year ago was this same number of 9.5. That number was set last season knowing QB Deshaun Watson would not be under center for the first 11 games to start the season. In Watson’s previous three seasons in Houston, he threw for an average of 4,280 yards per season with 85 total touchdowns to 28 total interceptions. The Browns rely heavily on their running game and RB Nick Chubb who was 3rd in the NFL in total rushing yards 2022 with 1,525 rushing yards. Chubb has essentially been a 1,000 yards rusher every season in the NFL (rushed for 996 as a rookie). Cleveland finished the year 8th in offensive DVOA, 6th best in rushing. The Browns defense slipped in 2022 to 23rd in defensive DVOA after ranking 11th the previous season. Cleveland addressed their holes on the defensive side of the football by signing a few key free agents and a solid draft class. Cleveland won 7 games a year ago with 6 of their nine losses coming by 1-score. The Browns had an average differential of minus -1.2PPG which was tied for 17th in the league. Cleveland plays the 23rd easiest schedule this season according to our data which has our model projecting them to finish with more than 10-wins.

OTHER BROWNS BETTING OPTIONS:

·         +390 to win the AFC North

·         QB Deshaun Watson OVER 3,500 total passing yards -112 – Watson has threw for over 3,800 yards in three seasons when he played a minimum of 15 games in Houston.  

Betting predictions

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Nascar Cup race – Firekeepers Casino 400 – 8/6/23

ASA’s Nascar Cup race predictions for Sunday, August 6th 2023

FIREKEEPERS CASINO 400 – MICHIGAN

TOP 3 FINISH – #12 RYAN BLANEY – +$280 – We expect the #12 Ford and Blaney to be in contention for a win today in Michigan for several good reasons. A Ford has won on this track the last 8 races with Blaney capturing the Checkered flag in 2021. In last season’s race at Michigan Speedway Blaney finished 5th overall with Ford’s finishing with 3 cars in the top 5 overall. Blaney has four Top 3 finishes this season including a win in Charlotte earlier this season. The #12 is 6th overall on the season in laps led and this car has been especially fast with this specific tire setup this season. Our money is on Blaney to have a great race today.

TOP 10 FINISH – #12 RYAN BLANEY -$170 – We expect the #12 Ford and Blaney to be in contention for a win today in Michigan for several good reasons. A Ford has won on this track the last 8 races with Blaney capturing the Checkered flag in 2021. In last season’s race at Michigan Speedway Blaney finished 5th overall with Ford’s finishing with 3 cars in the top 5 overall. In the last four races on this track he has finished in the Top 10 three of four times. The #12 is 6th overall on the season in laps led and this car has been especially fast with this specific tire setup this season. Blaney has finished in the Top 10 in nearly half the races this season with ten.

TOP 10 FINISH – #20 Christopher Bell – -$180 – Bell in the Joe Gibb’s Toyota grabbed the pole for Sunday’s Cup race and is in a strong position for a Top 10 finish. Bell had a top speed of 193.282mpg in qualifying while covering the 2-mile track in just 37.232 seconds. Bell has been especially good at this track/car setup which was evident in the qualifier. Last year he started 2nd at Michigan Speedway, led for 31 laps but finished 26th after a wreck. In 22 races this season, Bell has finished Top 10 eleven times which is tied for 3rd most. He’s a bit of a chalk here but we like him in this scenario for a Top 10.

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Nascar Cup Cook Out 400 – Richmond, VA

ASA Nascar predictions for the Cook Out 400 – Sunday, July 30th 2023

Last week we narrowly missed a nice Nascar Cup underdog bet Top 3 winner with Kevin Harvick who finished 4th overall. We could see it coming as the #45 car of Tyler Reddick had a late pit stop and gained an advantage with 4 new tires which helped overtake Harvick in the final two laps. Today we are focused on the short track in Richmond, Virginia and the Cook Out 400. Kyle Larson and Martin Truex Jr. have 3 wins each on short tracks in their last 17 races but neither will be found on our betting tickets Sunday as they don’t offer enough value in relation to risk versus reward. Let’s have a great day at the track with these Nascar Cup predictions!

TOP 10 FINISHER – #45 Tyler Reddick -$105 – At this price we will gladly place a wager on Reddick and his #45 Toyota. Reddick starts in the pole position on Sunday for the first time this season and should benefit from the great starting position. Reddick already has a road course win this season at the Circuit of Americas and should do well on today’s short track. Reddick doesn’t have great history on short tracks with just 2 Top 10 finishes in 17 races but after a solid race last week we like him to crack the top 10 today.

TOP 3 FINISHER – #20 Christoper Bell +$200 – Bell ranks second among the active drivers today with 2 or more stars with an average finishing position of 5.7 at Richmond. Only Martin Truex Jr. is better in 6 starts here with an average finishing position of 5.0. In six races on this short track, Bell has 5 Top 10’s and 4 Top 5’s. His best overall finish here is 2nd place August of 2022. He has finished in the Top 6 in five straight races. The #20 Joe Gibbs team Toyota will be in the running here if history tells us anything. JGR racing leads all racing organizations with 18 wins at Richmond. In the Toyota Owners 400 earlier this season Bell finished 4th and led for 26 laps in the race.

RACE WINNER – #24 William Byron +$900 – We like the #24 Chevy in this race and if anyone other than the favorites can win here it’s Byron. Earlier this year at the Toyota 400 which was run on this short track in Richmond, Byron finished a disappointing 24th after leading for 117 laps which was most in the field. In 2022 he had a 3rd place finish on this track after leading 122 laps so we know he has a car capable of winning this race. In his last 17 races on a short track, Byron has 1 win, 6 Top 5’s and 10 Top 10’s. The #24 had the fastest lap time on Saturday at 117.01mph and the showed the most speed over a 10-lap interval at 113.7mph. We like the longer odds here and will invest in Byron to win Sunday.

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Nascar Cup Highpoint 400 predictions

ASA breaks down the Pocono Raceway Highpoint 400 Sunday, July 23rd

This weekend the Cup series heads to Pocono Raceway and the Highpoint 400. Also known as the Tricky Triangle, this superspeedway is a 2.5-mile, triangular flat track. Last year here, Denny Hamlin won with Kyle Busch coming in second, but both drivers were disqualified after post-race inspection, leading to Chase Elliott claiming the victory instead. Speaking of Elliot, he is one of the big-name drivers that is on the outside looking in for the playoffs sitting 23rd in the standings. Can he get a win this Sunday? Will Martin Truex Jr. continue his winning ways? Denny Hamlin in the #11 Toyota has dominated at the track in recent years but he didn’t make our betting ticket this weekend. Find out who ASA likes to win and finish Top 3.

RACE WINNER #8 Kyle Busch +$650 – We like the experienced drivers at the 2.5 mile triangular Pocono Raceway this weekend. Veteran driver Kyle Busch has 35 career starts here with 11 Top 5’s and 18 Top 10’s. He has 4 career wins here including victories here in 2018, 2019 and most recently 2021. Last year he finished 2nd overall, led for 63 laps but was disqualified after failing a post-race inspection. In the last five races run at Pocono no driver has more laps led than Kyle Busch with 125. We like the #8 car at +$650 to notch a win here Sunday.

TOP 3 FINISH #4 Kevin Harvick +$400 – The Fords have run well on tracks with long straightaways (reduced drag) and Pocono fits the bill with the longest in the Series. The #4 Stewart-Haas Racing driver has five finishes of 8th or better in the last six Pocono races, including one win and 3 Top 5’s. In 43 career starts on this track he has 15 Top 5’s and 22 Top 10’s so he knows this track well. In 21 races this season he has 5 Top 5’s and we expect him to be in the running to win on Sunday.