Tag: American Sports Analysts

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NFL Free Bet | 6-Point Teaser | Ravens + Titans

NFL 6-POINT TEASER BET – Baltimore Ravens -.5 / Tennessee Titans +8.5

Baltimore is the #1 ranked DVOA team in the NFL with the 4th ranked offense and 2nd ranked defense and have the best overall scoring differential in the NFL at +12.8PPG.

The Ravens have been even better at home with an average +/- of +19.8PPG.

In their last two home games the Ravens have beaten two upper echelon teams from the NFC the Seahawks and Lions by a combined 75-9.

Cleveland has a top tier defense ranked #1 in DVOA but the offense has struggled with a ranking of 28th.

The Browns average just 4.6YPP on the season while allowing 4.3 for a net differential of +0.3.

In comparison, The Ravens average 5.7YPP on offense and allow just 4.1YPP for net differential of +1.6YPP.

These two teams met earlier in the season in Cleveland with the Ravens winning 28-3 with a +130 yardage advantage.

We like the Ravens to win.

The second part of this two team 6PT Teaser leg is on Tennessee + over a TD against Tampa Bay.

Tennessee with coach Vrabel have been outstanding as an underdog with a 29-19-1 ATS record or 60.4%.

Conversely, Tampa Bay as a favorite is just 5-10-1 ATS their last 16 in that role.

Tampa Bay has an average Margin of Victory of -1.1PPG. Tennessee has a negative differential of -1.5PPG.

The Titans are 3-5 SU on the season but only one of those losses have been by more than 9-points.

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Free bet | Georgia State vs App State prediction | Nov 11

#156 ASA PLAY ON Georgia State -2 over App State, Saturday at 2 PM ET

Free bet today or Georgia State vs App State prediction. Value here with GSU coming of 2 losses vs Ga Southern & JMU while App State is off 2 home wins vs low tier conference teams USM and Marshall.  App State is 1-3 SU on the road with only win over UL Monroe by 1 point which was far from an impressive road win.  ULM is just 1-7 on the season vs FBS teams with their only win coming over Army by 4 points.  Geogia State has played the much tougher Sun Belt schedule so far having faced JMU, Troy, Ga Southern, and ULL (all of the top teams in the league).  App State has yet to play either of the 2 best teams in the Sun Belt, JMU and Troy.  Georgia State should control ground game in this one which is key.  They have a very good running team averaging 187 YPG and App State is 123rd defensively vs the run allowing 195 YPG.  The Mountaineers remain overvalued having covered just once in their last 5 games.  We like Georgia State as a small home favorite as todays free bet.

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FREE NFL BET – Nov 5th – Rams vs Packers prediction

ASA PLAY ON: UNDER 19.5 TOTAL POINTS 1ST HALF – RAMS @ PACKERS 1PM ET

The Packers’ first half struggles are well documented as they are one of the slowest starting teams in the NFL. Going in reverse order the Packers first half points have been: 3, 0, 3, 3 and 0 in their past five games. In their first two teams they scored 10 and 9-points so even those games weren’t high scoring. The Packers average just 4.1PPG in the 1st half which is lowest in the league. The Rams are below average in 1st half scoring at 11PPG and we can expect a regression with Brett Rypien starting for the injured Matt Stafford. We don’t see these two teams getting to 20-points in the first half.

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Free Bet – Air Force vs. Colorado State – Oct 28th

ASA play on: #162 Colorado State +14 vs. Air Force, 7:00PM ET

We are on the home dog here with the Rams plus the points in this rivalry as our free bet. The points are a premium here with the oddsmakers projecting around 46 total points being scored. Air Force has played three road games with wins at 0-8 Sam Houston State, at 3-5 San Jose State and 3-4 Navy. The Falcons have put up some impressive offensive numbers, but they’ve come against Utah State, San Jose State, San Diego State who all rank 91st or worse in total defense and Wyoming who is 73rd. Granted, Colorado State is bad defensively, one of the worst in college football, but they have given up the majority of their yards via the pass at 308 passing yards per game allowed. The Rams actually allow just 3.9 yards per rush which is around the national average. Air Force relies heavily on their running game which is best in the nation in rushing yards per game at 306. Colorado State is coming off a close loss against an improved 6-1 UNLV team where they managed 5.8 yards per play while allowing 5.9YPP. The Falcons are coming off a game against the option Naval Academy and now must travel to CSU to face an entirely different offense. The Rams complete 63.7% of their pass attempts which is 37th best in college football and complete 28.6 pass attempts per game for 336.4YPG which is 6th most in CFB. Last year the Falcons were favored by 22-points at home and won by 12. They are clearly over-valued here so let’s grab the live home dog with backdoor ability as today’s free bet.

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NBA Player Prop bet Oct 24th | LeBron James

NBA PLAYER PROP – OVER 38.5.5 POINTS+REBOUNDS+ASSISTS – LEBRON JAMES – LAKERS

Tonight we tip off the season with a NBA Player Prop bet on LeBron James. With this being the first game of the season, we know LBJ will dress and play tonight, which may not be the case in any random regular season game. This game has added motivation for LeBron and the Lakers as they were swept by the Nuggets last season in the postseason. As we know, being motivated is not always LeBron’s strength but we are betting on it tonight. James averaged 28.9PPG, 8.3RPG and 6.8APG last season, which means he needs just an ‘average’ game tonight. His career numbers are 27.2PPG, 7.5RPG and 7.3APG which are also enough to grab the cash on this Over wager. Last year in the playoffs LeBron had total points+rebounds+assists of 59, 42, 41 and 47 in the series against Denver. The Nuggets weren’t a great defensive team a year ago and they lost 2 key defenders in Brown and Green so expect a regression on that end of the court, especially early on. Denver was also one of the worst teams in the league a season ago in defending small forwards. LeBron won’t be on a minute’s restriction tonight and should put up big numbers in this season opener. NBA Player prop bet OVER Point+Rebounds+Assists for LeBron James.

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