Category: Freepicks

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NBA Free Bet | Knicks vs Bulls | Oct 31 2025

ASA NBA Free Bet UNDER 233.5 NY Knicks at Chicago Bulls, 8:10pm ET

Our model is projecting 221.6 total points being scored in this game and we couldn’t agree more with it’s findings. The Bulls have the 4th best Defensive Efficiency rating in the NBA allowing just 1.085-points per possession. The Knicks aren’t far behind allowing 1.120PPP (11th). The Bulls currently have slightly faster pace of play numbers but they’ve also faced four teams that prefer to play uptempo. The Knicks are the 24th slowest team in the NBA at 98.7 possessions per game so they’ll look to muck this game up. The Bulls currently have solid Offensive Efficiency numbers, but again that is impacted by their schedule. The Knicks are averaging 1.120-points per possession which ranks 24th in the league. New York is shooting just 40.6% on the season (28th) and hit just 33% from beyond the arc. The Bulls have solid shooting percentages but the four teams they’ve beaten this season rank 18th or worse in FG% defense, which has inflated those numbers. We like UNDER in this one as todays NBA Free Bet

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NFL Free play | Dolphins vs Falcons | Oct 26 2025

#268 ASA NFL FREE PLAY ON Atlanta Falcons -7 over Miami Dolphins, Sunday a 1 PM ET

We like the Falcons to bounce back after a poor showing last Sunday @ San Francisco.  Atlanta opened as a dog last week vs the Niners and flipped to a small favorite but didn’t show up to play losing 20-10.  The yardage was dead even at 4.9 YPP (season low for the Falcons) and Atlanta was shut out on downs in their final 2 drives.  Prior to that loss, the Falcons had topped Washington by 7 and Buffalo by 10 (2 playoff caliber teams), both at home.  Miami is in a freefall.  They are now 1-6 SU on the season after getting rolled 31-6 @ Cleveland last week.  It was the first time in 11 games the Browns topped 17 points.  This will be the Browns 3rd road game in 4 weeks and they are 0-4 SU on the road (3 of those losses coming by double digits).  The Fins have internal issues and head coach McDaniel is on the hot seat to say the least.  Seems like this team is very close to imploding and if they get down in this game, it might be lights out.  Atlanta is one of 2 teams that ranks in the top 7 in total offense and total defense (other is KC).  Miami ranks 26th in total offense and 27th in total defense.  This is a terrible match up for the Dolphins defense as they rank dead last defending the run allowing 160 YPG on the ground and they are facing an Atlanta offense that averages 137 YPG rushing (4th in the NFL). No Penix Jr, No problem with vet Kirk Cousins under center. Atlanta RB Robinson (6th in the NFL in rushing yards) had a poor outing vs SF (2.9 YPC) but he should have a field day vs this defense.  Miami’s offense will be without one of the key weapons, TE Waller, and they’re already missing Tyreek Hill.  Now facing the #2 defense (Atlanta allows just 265 YPG) we expect a struggle.  Atlanta wins this home tilt by more than a TD. 

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NBA free pick | Hawks vs Magic | Oct 24 2025

ASAwins NBA free pick on: Atlanta Hawks +5 at Orlando Magic, 7:10pm ET

This is a rematch from last season’s 7 vs 8 playoff meeting which the Magic won 120-95. Atlanta has a rebuilt roster and is expected by many experts to make a strong playoff run this season. The Hawks added Porzingis, Alexander-Walke and Kennard to the roster and also get Jalen Johnson back from injury, who was having an All-Star type season a year ago before getting hurt. Orlando also made a big splash in the offseason with the addition of Desmond Bane who will be a great fit for the Magic. These teams suffered different fates in their season openers with the Hawks getting blown out at home by the Raptors, while the Magic beat instate rivals the Miami Heat. We think it’s going to take some time for the Hawks to adjust to the new players on the roster while the Magic’s will be seamless. Orlando was 22-19 SU at home last season with an average +/- of +2.1ppg. Atlanta was 19-23 SU on the road a year ago with an average MOV of minus -1.1ppg. The home team won and covered the last three meetings between these two teams a year ago and the Magic own a 40-18 ATS record at home as a chalk dating back to 2023 with an average MOV in those games of +10.7ppg. We won’t bite on the revenge angle here and will lay the points with the Magic as today’s NBA free pick.

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NHL Free Bet | Kings vs Stars Prediction | Oct 23 2025

ASA’s NHL free play on: Dallas Stars (-150) vs. Los Angeles Kings 9pm ET

Tonight’s matchup at American Airlines Center pits the high-octane Dallas Stars against a stingy but road-weary Los Angeles Kings squad. With the Stars listed as -150 moneyline favorites, I’m backing Dallas to notch the victory and extend the home team dominance in this series.

Dallas enters with elite offensive firepower that has underperformed early on this season, but is ready to explode any given night. This Stars offense was 3rd league-wide in goals for (275 total last season, averaging 3.35 per game) while sitting 6th in goals against (222 allowed). At home, they went 28-10-3 a year ago, this Kings team limped to a 17-19-5 road mark in 2024-25. Digging deeper into the splits, Dallas posted a robust +1.12 average goal differential in their 41 home games last season, outpacing foes by more than a goal per night on familiar ice.

Conversely, LA managed just a -0.25 average goal differential across their 41 road tilts, where defensive lapses and sluggish starts were a recurring issues.

In net, Jake Oettinger gives Dallas a clear edge. The 26-year-old stud anchored the crease with a 36-18-4 record, 2.59 GAA, .909 SV%, and 2 shutouts over 58 starts last year—numbers that ballooned his value with an eight-year extension this offseason. Oettinger thrives at home, where his puck-tracking and rebound control neutralize LA’s forecheck.

On the flip side, Darcy Kuemper was lights-out for the Kings in 2024-25 (31-11-7, 2.02 GAA, .921 SV%, 5 shutouts in 50 games), earning Vezina buzz and anchoring LA’s league-2nd goals against (203 total). But his road splits dipped noticeably (.915 SV%, 2.25 GAA), and facing Dallas’ top-5 power play could expose any early rust in this cross-conference clash.

Even-strength play tilts Dallas’ way too. The Stars ranked top-5 in 5-on-5 expected goals share (55.2%) last season, leveraging their speed and cycle game to control play and generate high-danger chances— an advantage that should wear down LA’s structured but aging blue line.

Head-to-head history seals the deal: The home team won all three meetings last season  and 8 of the last 10 dating back to 2022. Pick: Dallas Stars ML (-150) – Lay the juice; this feels like a 4-2 Stars dub.

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NBA Player Prop Bet | Khris Middleton | Oct 22 2025

ASA’s NBA PLAYER PROP BET:

OVER 21.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists – Khris Middleton Washington Wizards

K-Midd returns to Milwaukee tonight to face his former mates and the team he played for 12 seasons. Middleton looked healthy in the preseason playing 20+ minutes in two games and he is tabbed a starter tonight for the Wiz. His usage should be 30+ minutes in this game with projected numbers of: 15 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists. Washington was the 4th fastest paced team in the NBA a year ago which means plenty of possession in this game against the Bucks, who were only slightly better than league average in Defensive Efficiency a year ago.

We expect a big game out of Middleton in his return to Milwaukee.

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