Author: Lee Kostroski

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NFL Free Bet | Colts vs Seahawks | Dec 14 2025

POINT TRAIN NFL Free Bet – DEC 14

@Seattle Seahawks OVER 27.5 (-118) Team Total vs Indianapolis Colts – 3:25PM CT

RATING: Free Bet

  • The 2nd most efficient offense in the NFL belongs to the Seattle Seahawks per DVOA metrics. The Colts defense is slightly above average or 13th in DVOA stats.
  • The Seahawks average 353 Total yards/game, 9th most, average 6.2YPPL – 5th most – and score 29.8PPG – 2nd most.
  • It takes Seattle 11.9 yards gained for 1-point scored. (Explosive) Best in the NFL.
  • Seattle Points p/play = .509 – 1st – 3.2 TD’s per game – 6th.
  • The Hawks have scored 26 or more points in 9 of their 13 games this season.
  • The Colts have solid overall defensive numbers, but we are seeing a regression in those stats as the schedule has gotten tougher. They will also be without Gardner and Ward (?) their two best cover-corners.
  • Indianapolis has allowed 25+ points in 3 of their last five games.
  • Last week the Colts gave up 36-points to the Jaguars, a below average offense that averages 5.1YPPL – 23rd.
  • Seattle has scored 26+ points in every home game but one this season – the opener against the Niners.
  • Without Danny Jones at QB the Colts offense will struggle to convert 1st downs which means more possessions for Seattle.
  • Seattle is 10-4 OVER their Team Total in 10 of their last 14 road games.

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NBA Free bets | 76ers vs Bucks | Dec 5 2025

ASA NBA free bet on OVER 221. 5 Philadelphia 76ers at Milwaukee Bucks, 8pm ET

No Giannis – no problem for the Bucks tonight versus the Sixers. OK, let’s face it, it’s a massive problem in Milwaukee right now and the Giannis trade dilemma. But for tonight’s opponent we don’t feel his absence will pose as big a problem as the oddsmakers are suggesting with this low total. Milwaukee played well against the Pistons in a 113-109 home win on Wednesday night. The Bucks shot 49% and put up 113 points on the 2nd best defense in the NBA and now face a Philly team that is 15th in defensive efficiency ratings. The 76ers are coming off a low scoring game last night against the Warriors who were without their top two scorers (Butler, Curry) and shot horrendously at 42% overall, 29% from deep. The 76ers had score115, 134 and 121 in their three previous games before managing just 99 against the Warriors. In a similar scenario, as previously mentioned, the Warriors are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, the Bucks are in the bottom third. In the lone meeting earlier this season these two teams produced 237 total points but it took OT to get there. Last season in four meetings they averaged 244 total points per game. Our model is projecting 230.7 total points tonight. Bet OVER as tonight’s free bet.

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NBA free Player Prop Bet | Collin Gillespie | Dec 1

ASA NBA play on: UNDER 12.5 Pts – Collin Gillespie – Phoenix Suns

Gillespie has been shooting above expectations in recent weeks and has also seen an increase in his overall usage. That coincides with the injury to Grayson Allen who was out Nov 16th – Nov 28th. Gillespie went over this scoring prop in all 7 games playing extended minutes. As soon as Allen returned he managed to score 10-points against the Nuggets. When Gilliespie has played 28 or less minutes per game he has stayed UNDER this scoring prop in 12 of 16 games. The Lakers are better than average when it comes to defending PG/SG. With Allen taking away minutes we don’t see Gillespie getting over his scoring prop in this one.

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NBA free bet | Grizzlies vs Kings | Nov 30 2025

ASAwins NBA Free bet: player prop – OVER 22.5 PTS+REBS+ASS – Santi Aldama – Grizzlies

Santi Aldama has been a consistent producer for the Memphis Grizzlies lately, averaging 28 minutes per game across his last 10 outings. That increased workload has fueled impressive stat lines, including 15.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game—good for a combined PRA average of 26.2, well above the 22.5 number today.

Aldama has cleared 22 combined points, rebounds, and assists in nine of those 10 games. His outlier performance came in a recent 137-96 rout of the Kings, where he went off for 29 points, five rebounds, and three assists in just 28 minutes. The Kings rank 8th in pace of play and are 26th in total defensive efficiency.

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NBA free bet today | Bulls vs Pelicans | Nov 24th 2025

ASA free bet today on Chicago @ New Orleans Under 242½ 

Our NBA model is projecting a total of 235.1, dragged down by NOP’s anemic 109.7 offensive efficiency (oEFF – bottom-5 league-wide) facing Chicago’s 118 dEFF. The Bulls are one of the faster paced teams in the NBA but the Pelicans are one of the slowest. Chicago has not been great offensively either this season ranking 19th in offensive efficiency. H2H last season produced totals of 232 and 234 —Pelicans’ injury-riddled roster will have a tough time putting up points in this one and the Bulls have a few key injuries as well. Bet UNDER.

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