Author: Lee Kostroski

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NBA Free Bet | Clippers vs Bulls | 3-14-24

ASA NBA free pick on LA Clippers -6 at Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET

We are on the Clippers as our NBA free bet for Thursday. The Clippers are coming off an ugly home loss to the T’Wolves on Tuesday night and look to get back into the win column at the Bulls expense. Chicago played last night in Indianapolis making this the second night of a back-to-back for the Bulls. Not only that, but this is their 3rd game in four days and 4th in six days.

Chicago is not a deep team to begin with and has the 18th worst Net Rating for their bench. The Bulls bench has the 24th rated EFG% in the NBA at 52.1%. With the added rest the Clippers starters should see extended minutes in this one and have a healthy Paul George and Kawhi Leonard for this contest. The Clippers starters have the 6th best Net Rating differential in the NBA at +4.6. Los Angeles has the 4th best offensive efficiency rating and the 13th best DEFF. In comparison the Bulls rate 18th in defensive efficiency and 22nd in OEFF.

The Clippers are 12-10 ATS as a road chalk this season with an average +/- of +7.5PPG. The Bulls are 8-6-1 ATS as a home underdog but they own a negative differential of minus -2.9PPG. The Clippers start their road trip with a double digit win here.

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NBA Free Bet | March 12th 2024 | Bucks vs Kings prediction

ASA Free NBA bet on OVER 236 Milwaukee Bucks at Sacramento Kings, 10PM ET

These two teams met in Milwaukee in mid-January and produced 285 total points in OT. The oddsmakers had set an O/U number of 247 on that game. Both teams shot 52% overall, and 41% (Kings), 47% (Bucks) from beyond the arc which are also well above season each team’s season average.

That seems to be a reoccurring trend when these two teams get together as they’ve gone Over the Total in 10 straight meetings. The last seven meetings have averaged 257 points scored.

The Bucks defense has certainly improved since Doc Rivers took over but they have given up 125, 123 and 117 in their last three games against similar offensive teams to the Kings. The Bucks rank 5th in offensive efficiency at 1.195PPP and play at the 4th highest rate in the league.

The Kings are 12th in pace of play at 99.7 possessions per game and have the 13th best offensive efficiency rating at 1.175-points per possession. Milwaukee is the 8th best 3PT shooting team in the NBA at 37.6% and the Kings are last in defending the 3PT line allowing 39.8%. The Kings rely on volume shooting to score with the 5th highest FG attempts per game and the 10th best shooting percentage. Granted the NBA has been on an Under trend but we like Over here and today’s NBA free bet. Bucks vs Kings prediction for Tuesday, March 12th.

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Free College Basketball Bet | 3-9-24 | Wake Forest vs Clemson

#688 ASA PLAY ON Wake Forest -3.5 over Clemson, Saturday at 6 PM ET

Free college bet today from ASA. An absolute must win here for Wake at home and they are squarely on the bubble and out right now by most bracketologists.  A loss here would most likely end their dreams of getting invited to the Big Dance.  Add to that the fact the Demon Deacons are off a home loss, their first home loss of the season, and we love this situation. 

The Deacs are 15-1 at home (12-4-1 ATS) with a win over Duke included, and their 1 point loss at home on Tuesday vs Georgia Tech was their worst performance of the season so we look for a strong bounce back performance.  They shot just 42% in that game (they average 51% at home) and made only 25% of their 3’s (they average 42% from deep at home).  They have a PPG margin of +18 at home this season. 

The Tigers have been winning (7-2 last 9 games) but only 1 of their last 8 games have come against a team ranked in the top 8 in the conference.  They’ve played the 2nd easiest SOS in the ACC this season yet their adjusted efficiency margins are lower than Wake who has played the tougher league slate.  WF has lost 3 straight games since topping Duke here and that’s giving us some value as they are laying basically the same number vs Clemson (-3) as they were vs the Blue Devils.  In a must win spot we like Wake who has been nearly unbeatable at home as today’s free bet.     

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NBA Free Bet | 3-6-24 | Bucks vs Warriors

ASA FREE play on Golden State Warriors -4 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 10PM ET

**ONLY IF GIANNIS IS OUT TONIGHT** The NBA free pick today. This line is telling us Giannis will not be in the lineup for the Bucks tonight which means we will back the Warriors at home minus the points. The Bucks have clearly seen a resurgence since the All-Star break with 6 straight wins and a defense that ranks best in the NBA over that time period.

As a Bucks fan I temper my enthusiasm though as two of those wins came against Charlotte, one versus a struggling Bulls team and one against Philly who had injury issues. The Warriors are coming off an embarrassing blowout loss in Boston on Sunday in a National TV showing.

I like Golden State to bounce back with a concentrated effort at home. The home team in this series has dominated with 6-straight wins including the Bucks getting a W on Jan 13th at home 129-118. You might be a bit surprised to know that the Bucks are 3-5 ATS as an underdog with a negative average differential in those games of -10.5PPG. G

olden State has dominated Eastern Conference teams this season with a 16-7 SU record and a +/- of +3.3PPG. Given the circumstances we like the Warriors minus the short number as a NBA free bet today.

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Free College Bet today – Georgia vs. Florida, 2-17-24

Free pick today from ASA – Georgia +3 over Florida – Saturday at 1 PM ET

These same 2 teams played a few weeks ago @ Florida and Gators won in OT and Gators were +8 FT’s made yet still almost lost. There is a big difference in home/road splits as Florida is 2-4 SU on the road this season and Georgia 11-3 at home.

When it comes to betting value it lies with the Bulldogs today. UGA who is +3 in this game and most recent home game they were -1.5 vs South Carolina who is 9-3 in SEC in 2nd place and 21-4 overall. The reason we are getting that added value is a results of Georgia’s recent 5-game losing streak. Looking closer we see in those 5 defeats; three losses were on the road and the two home losses were vs Bama and South Carolina who are in 1st and 2nd place in the SEC.

Florida has won 6 of 7 but four of those were at home and 3 of those six wins came by 2 points or less or in OT. We are also catching Florida looking ahead to 1st place Alabama next on the schedule.

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