Author: Lee Kostroski

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College Basketball free bet – Jan 14th

#635 ASA FREE PLAY ON North Texas +4 over Florida Atlantic, Saturday at 2 PM ET

A battle of the 2 best teams in CUSA on Saturday afternoon.  These 2 just met a few weeks ago and FAU pulled the upset winning 50-46.  Both teams shot very poorly form the field but FAU, who rarely gets to the FT line, attempted 11 more freebies which was the difference in the game.   The thing is, FAU only scores around 13% of their points from the charity stripe (345th most nationally) while UNT scored 20% of their points from the FT line.  The Mean Green alson shoot it better from the stripe making 74% as a team compared to 68% for Florida Atlantic.  Thus, we don’t see that disparity happening again which gave the Owls a big edge in that game.  Needless to say UNT has been waiting for this rematch after blowing a 9 point lead with under 4:00 minutes remaining in the first meeting.  That was the Mean Green’s only CUSA loss of the season thus far.  FAU is 5-0 in league play but they’ve been winning by the skin of their teeth as of late.  Since their late come from behind 4 point win vs UNT, the Owls beat UAB at home by 2 points, topped Charlotte at home by 4 points, and just beat a bad FIU team on the road in OT on Wednesday night.  They are ripe to get picked off and North Texas is the team that can do it.  They play outstanding defense allowing only 53 PPG (3rd nationally) and the play at one of the slowest paces in the nation.  Thus why this total is in the low 120’s which makes the points even more valuable.  FAU is overvalued due to their current 14 game winning streak.  10 of those wins have come vs teams ranked outside the top 100.  The 3 wins they have inside the top 100 have come by 2, 2, and 4 points (vs UNT).  Last year the Mean Green were 3 points dogs here and won outright 54-51.  We give them a great shot to win here again so we take the points. 

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NBA Player Props Dec 2nd

ASA’s NBA Player Props are off to INSANE 29-12 START!

ASA Player Prop UNDER 1.5 MADE 3-POINTERS – Nikola Vucevic – Chicago Bulls

Vucevic averages 1.52 made 3PT’s on the season which is clearly slightly higher than tonight’s Over/Under. He has failed to make more than one 3-pointer in 7 of his last ten games though. In the three games he managed to make more than 1 3-pointer he faced some of the league’s worst teams defending Centers making 3’s. He made 4 against the Bucks and 2 each in two games against the Pelicans. New Orleans is the 16th worst defensive team in the category, the Bucks are 15th worst. Tonight Vucevic will face a Warriors team that is 6th best in defending Centers on the 3-point line who allow just 0.7 makes per game. Easy UNDER call here.

ASA Player Prop OVER 34.5 POINTS+REBOUND Anthony Davis – LA Lakers

A.D. averages 12.72 rebounds per game this season and has ripped off 8 straight games with 12 or more. His lowest rebound total was in the Lakers last game against the Blazers, which was a blowout early on, so he played just 29 minutes. The Bucks allow the 6th most rebounds to Centers in the NBA at 15.7 per game. A.D. is scoring 26.28PPG on the year and an even better average of 29.3PPG in his last ten games. When you combine Rebound and Points, he is averaging 39 per game this season and 43.3 in his last ten games. The Bucks have a great scoring defense regarding Centers this season, but they haven’t faced many great Bigs which makes their numbers better than they are. We really like this number considering Davis is more than capable of scoring more that 35 in this game, so the rebounds are a plus.

ASA Player Prop OVER 28.5 POINTS – Trae Young – Atlanta Hawks

Young is averaging 27.81PPG on the season and 28.2PPG in his last ten games. The Books have set this number slightly higher than his season average for a reason. The Nuggets allow the 4th most points in the NBA to PG’s this season. A few things we can rely on with this Over wager. Young will get his shots up as he averages 20.3 field goal attempts per game. That number could go up considering the Hawks are without two starters in Collins and Hunter tonight. The Nuggets aren’t great defensively as they rank 23rd in the league in defensive efficiency allowing 1.143-points per possession. Denver has the 27th worst overall FG% defense and rank 15th in 3PT% D. Young is in line for a big scoring night on Friday.

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NBA Prop Bet – Monday, Nov 14th

ASA PLAY ON: OVER 11.5 POINTS Al Horford, Boston Celtics

ASA’s best Prop Bet tonight. Horford has been somewhat limited this season as they manage his load/minutes early on. He did not play in the Celtics most recent game which was the second night of a back-to-back but in the previous game he scored a season-high 21-points. He has scored in double-digits in 5 straight games in which he’s played in and 6 of the last seven. Now he faces the 5th worst team in the NBA when it comes to points allowed per game to Centers in the OKC Thunder. Consider this. In the 10 games he’s played in he has faced a defense that is in the top half of the league in the least number of points allowed to Centers in every game but one. Tonight, it’s going to be a big game for the Celtics center.

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NFL Player Prop Bets – Oct 30th – By ASA

ASA 4 NFL Player Props for Sunday, October 30th 2022

Miami Dolphins – Jaylen Waddle Over 64 Rec Yards (-119)

Last week Waddle turned 4 catches into 88 yards with only 5 targets. Detroit is giving up roughly 250 passing yards per game this season making it a salivating matchup for the Miami speedster. If Detroit can regain some of its early season offensive output, we may see a shootout at Ford Field. Set at the highest O/U of the weekend (50.5), Waddle could easily double his yardage total without surprising anyone. 

Atlanta Falcons – Marcus Mariota Under 161.5 Pass Yards (-117)

Atlanta has been dead set on running the football no matter the score in 2022. In week seven, the Bengals scored 21 unanswered points on their first three drives, yet Mariota only threw 13 times the entire game while trailing. He has not surpassed 150 passing yards once in his previous four games. Additionally, Carolina’s defense played great against the Bucs, holding them to three total points. 

New Orleans Saints – Alvin Kamara Over 38.5 Rec Yards (-117)

Andy Dalton was named the starter once again for week 8. This bodes well for Kamara as he has collected six or more passes in the three games they have both started. Las Vegas ranks 27th in passing yards allowed per game. With how involved the Saints stud running back is in the passing game, expect there to be plenty of room for Kamara to operate. Volume alone will make him a valuable bet. 

NY Giants Saquon Barkley Over 84.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Barkley is averaging 103.71 rushing yards per game and this Seattle defense will be the worst rush D they have faced this season. The Seahawks give up 147.9 Rushing Yards Per game which ranks 29th in the NFL. The Hawks D-line ranks 19th in “Hog Index”. The Giants rank 10th in O-Line “Hog Index”. Let’s do some simple math here: Seattle gives up 4.9-Yards Per Rush. Barkley averages 20.43-Rush Attempts Per Game. Barkley averages 5.1-Yards Per Rush. If it’s an “average” game Barkley should rush for over 102.15 rushing yards.  

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NBA free bet from ASA Oct 26

ASA NBA free bet for October 26th 2022

ASA play on: OVER 233 San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 8PM ET

This is a home-home series as these same two teams just met on Oct 24th in Minnesota. That game finished with 221 points and had a posted Total of 235. That game could have easily gone over the number but each team had an abnormal quarter. After putting up a combined 124-points in the first half it looked like a sure Over bet winner. Then the Wolves managed just 14-points in the 3rd quarter while the Spurs put up 12-points in the 4th. We should see another high scoring affair here with two teams that like to play fast. The Spurs are 4th in pace of play, the T-Wolves are 5th so we know there will be plenty of possession for a high scoring game. Minnesota is 13th in defensive efficiency, the Spurs are 21st so neither are exceptional on that end of the floor. San Antonio is scoring 117PPG, Minnesota is putting up 115.8PPG. Last season when these two teams met they put huge totals in 2 of the four games with 288 and 248-points. The oddsmakers lowered this Total by a few points so let’s grab the value and bet OVER.

Player Prop: OVER 35.5 POINTS + ASSISTS – Donovan Mitchell Cleveland Cavaliers

Let’s start with the Magic defense when it specifically comes to shooting guards. On average the Magic allow 26.23PPG and 8.39APG to shooting guards. That’s a recipe for disaster going up against one of the better SG’s in the NBA in Donovan Mitchell. Mitchell is scoring 33.3PPG and averaging 7.0APG this season. We know he will get plenty of usage tonight as point guard Darius Garland is out. On the season Mitchell averages 38 minutes per game. A unique aspect to this bet is the fact Mitchell could score enough to cash this Over without registering an assist. Overall, Orlando is 23rd in defensive efficiency as a team and they give up over 115PPG so the Cavs should put up a big number in this one.

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