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NFL Prediction | NFC Champions | Atlanta Falcons

By Point Train Consulting

NFL longshot – NFC Champions – Atlanta Falcons +1300

The schedule plays an important role here for the Falcons as they face one of, if not the easiest schedule in the NFL this season. Atlanta was 7-10 last season with six of those losses coming in one score games. Despite the losing record the Falcons had an average differential of minus -3.1PPG over the course of entire season.

The addition of QB Kirk Cousins was a huge acquisition in the offseason and should be the missing link for the Falcons offense that ranked 22nd in the NFL in passing yards per game last season and 28th in completion percentage. Before getting injured, Cousins, was 216 of 311 passing (70%) for 2,331 yards with 18 TD’s to 5 INT’s and those types of numbers will translate to wins in the NFC. The Falcons have our 5th best rated offensive line this season which should provide a clean pocket for Cousins and open running lanes for Bijan Robinson, who rushed for over 970 yards in 2023.

Defensively the Falcons were solid a year ago ranking 10th in Yards Allowed p/Game overall, 7th in Yards p/Play allowed at 5.0Y.P.P.L. Atlanta’s defense did a great job of getting off the field ranking 4th in 3rd down conversion allowed p/Game at 4.5.

The Falcons should win the NFC South and have a very favorable overall record at the end of the regular season. The teams that are favored over the Falcons to come out of the NFC are the: 49ers (+250), Lions (+550), Eagles (+700), Cowboys (+700) and Packers (+800) and each of those teams could face serious obstacles this season. The Niners face a difficult schedule and the NFC West should be better this season so a repeat Super Bowl bid may be tough for San Francisco. The Lions should see a regression in their win total after a surprise season a year ago and a horrific defense. The Cowboys will do Cowboys thing again and Green Bay may be fool’s gold with a overrated QB in Jordan Love. The Eagles are the biggest threat in the NFC in our opinion.

Atlanta could conceivably end up being the host in the NFC Championship game and if they get to that point, we will have a great opportunity to bet back if need be. At +1300 this is a very viable option for a future bet on the Atlanta Falcons.

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NFL Playoff Future Bet – Passing Leaders – Point Train Consulting

NFL Playoff Futures Bets to Make – By Point Train Consulting

Odds offered at Draftkings.com

MOST PASSING YARDS IN THE PLAYOFFS

NFC QUARTERBACKS

Dak Prescott +360

Brock Purdy +700

Jared Goff +750

Baker Mayfield +1600

Jalen Hurts +1700

Matt Stafford +2200

Jordan Love +3000

AFC QUARTERBACKS

Josh Allen +500

Patrick Mahomes +550

Lamar Jackson +700

Tua Tagovaliloa +950

Joe Flacco +1200

CJ Stroud +2000

Mason Rudolph +3500

First off you have to project who will play the most games. Clearly the 49ers and Ravens, barring a significant injury, will be favored in every game up until the Super Bowl.  That makes those two teams likely to play three games each as both get a bye in the first round of the playoffs. Obviously, if a team that is playing this weekend advances to the Super Bowl, those quarterbacks will have an added game to their total passing stats resume.

Of the playoff teams, Miami averaged the most passing yards per game on the season followed by Detroit, Dallas, San Francisco, Kansas City, Houston, Buffalo, Rams, Packers, Eagles, Buccaneers, Browns, Ravens and the Steelers. The teams that averaged the most passing attempts in order were: Chiefs, Browns, Cowboys, Lions, Texans, Rams, Packers, Bills, Bucs, Dolphins, Eagles, Steelers, Ravens, 49ers.

Our focus immediately goes to the two favorites in the 49ers and Ravens. Baltimore is clearly a run first team as they average the most rushing attempts per game at 31.8 and they rank down the list in passing yards per game and attempts.  In other words, we are not betting on Lamar Jackson.

San Francisco clearly runs a lot too at 29.4 attempts per game, but Purdy also slings it for an average of 257.9 yards per game which is 4th most in the league. The Niners also tend to hit big passing plays as they average 13-yards per completion which is 1st in the league.

At +700 and with the likely scenario that the 49ers play three games we have to put a bet on him at these odds.

We will hedge that wager with a bet on the favorite Dak Prescott. The Cowboys face the Packers in Game 1 and the 27th overall ranked DVOA defense. Granted the Packers rank 9th in passing yards per game allowed but they are 17th in completion percentage against and 18th in yards per completion. Dallas will benefit from playing the first two rounds of the playoffs at home in a Dome and the third game in San Francisco in what should be good conditions. The Cowboys averaged the 3rd most passing yards per game at 258.6, but at home that average improved to 305YPG, best in the NFL.

At +360 we have to invest in Dak Prescott to have the most playoff passing yards.

You can essentially rule out the contenders in the AFC as they are likely going to be playing outdoors in potentially adverse conditions.

Of course, if Dallas and San Francisco get upset in the early rounds none of this matters but the odds are on our side that these two teams play three games each.

Brock Purdy +700

Dak Prescott +360

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NFL FREE BET | GIANTS vs SAINTS prediction | December 17th

POINT TRAIN New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints – 1PM ET

WAGER – GIANTS +5.5

  • Tommy DeVito and the Giants find themselves in a 3-game winning streak and fresh off a convincing win over a Packers team that was surging up the standings.
  • A newfound ground game has made life much easier for DeVito and the passing game which makes their offense that much tougher to defend. NY is averaging 5.0-Yards Per Rush in their last three games, up from their season average of 4.1.
  • DeVito has been efficient and a game manager. In 3 games he’s 52/73 for 595 total yards with 5 TD’s to 0 INT’s.
  • The Saints defense has been in a steady decline allowing 5.3-Yards Per Play in their last three games. Prior to facing the pathetic Panthers offense last week, the Saints had allowed 27, 24 and 33 points in the three previous games.
  • The Giants defense has held 5 of their last eight opponents to 19 or less points.  
  • The Saints don’t enjoy much of a home field advantage with a 3-3 record and an average point differential of +0.2ppg.
  • Grab the points with the G-Men

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    Kansas vs. Oklahoma State prediction – Oct 14th 2023

    POINT TRAIN FREE BET – OKLAHOMA STATE +3 over Kansas – 2:30PM CT

    You can bet the Cowboys head coach Mike Gundy has pointed out to his team that they are underdogs at home to perennial Big 12 doormat Kansas today. Granted, KU is not the team of the past and head coach Leipold has done some fantastic things in Lawrence, but this number should be a pick’em by our power ratings. Okie State has won 9 of the last ten meetings outright, covered 8 of those with every one of those wins coming by a touchdown or more. Last season, the Jayhawks pulled the 37-16 upset at home as a 3-point dog with turnovers being the main culprit for OSU. Do you know how many times the Jayhawks have been a road favorite in the last ten years? ONCE! In that same 10-year span the Cowboys have been home dogs 14 times and have covered & won 9 of those. Grab the points.

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    NC State vs. UConn prediction | Point Train | Aug 31st 2023

    College prediction for Thursday, August 31st

    POINT TRAIN NC State at Connecticut – Thursday, 7:30PM EST

    WAGER – NC STATE -14

    RATING – Beer & Pizza

    • We are going against the line move here as this number opened with the Wolfpack favored by -16.5 points but has since been bet down to -14.
    • Consider this though. These teams played last season and NC State was favored by 38-points and won 41-10. The Pack dominated with 29 first downs to just 8, nearly 400-total yards to just 160.
    • NC State returns 7 starters on offense and 5 on defense. They also have Virginia QB transfer Brennan Armstrong under center who threw for over 4,440-yards with 31 TD’s to 10 INT’s two years ago for the Cavaliers. He’s now reunited with former UVA offensive coordinator Robert Anae so expect this Wolfpack offense to hum.
    • UConn made strides last year under head coach Jim Mora, winning 5 of their last eight games, but they still have a way to go.
    • The Husky were 94th in points per drive scored last season and ranked 69th in scoring defense giving up an average of 28.2PPG. Those rankings/statistics also came against a weak schedule.
    • One negative here is the fact that NC State has a big game on deck against Notre Dame, but with this being the first game of the season we don’t expect them to look past this UConn team.

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