Tag: nfl player prop bets

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NFL Player Prop Bets | QB’s Big Day | Oct 12 2025

Patriots – QB Drake Maye OVER 232.5 Passing Yards vs. Saints

Drake Maye just torched the Bills for 273 yards in a wild upset win last week, and he’s cleared 232.5 passing yards in 3 of his 5 starts this season—his two misses? Barely under by 3 yards in Week 2, and then they blew out the Panthers in Week 4 and sat on the lead. The Saints’ pass D ranks 23rd in opponents’ completion % (69.54%) and 20th in yards per attempt (6.8). They don’t sack QBs much either, averaging just 2.4 per game, so Maye should have time to sling it. Maye’s the 2nd-most accurate QB in the NFL at 73.38% completions, especially now that he’s clicking with Stefon Diggs for 100+ yards the last two weeks straight.

Chargers – QB Justin Herbert OVER 21.5 Rushing Yards vs Dolphins

The Chargers are down to their 3rd and 4th string RB’s in Haskins and Vidal so expect Herbert to pick up the rushing slack on broken plays. Herbert has rushed for 24 or more yards in 4 of five games this season and coming off a 60-yard game against the Commanders. Miami ranks last in the league against the run allowing 174 rushing yards per game. The Dolphins give up 5.6 yards per rush (31st). They simply don’t win in the trenches. Miami has allowed an average of 32.8 rushing yards to opposing QB’s this season and Herberts willingness to run makes this a very attractive prop bet Sunday.

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Thursday NFL Player Prop Bets | Eagles vs Giants | Oct 9 2025

ASA has two Thursday NFL Player Prop Bets | Eagles vs Giants Predictions

Eagles RB Saquon Barkley OVER 15.5 Receiving Yards

The Giants defense will have a tough time stopping Barkley tonight in his return to New York City. The Men in Blue allow the 24th most passing yards overall per game at 237.2 with running backs accounting for 31 of those yards. The lead running back for Giants opponents have gone OVER their receiving prop in 3 of the last four games. Barkley has been OVER this stat line in 3 of five games this season with an average of 25.6 receiving yards per game. Barkley should see at least 4 targets (also betting OVER 2.5 targets) in this game and needs just one decent play to get OVER this number.

Giants QB Jaxson Dart UNDER 177.5 Passing Yards

The Giants WR injuries are taking a toll with Nabers and Slayton both out, leaving Wan’Dale Robinson as his best option. Dart is averaging just 5.2 yards per completion with 313 total passing yards in two games. He has a QBR of 43.6 and we don’t anticipate the Giants having him drop back and throw 40 times as he did last week against the Saints. Philadelphia has average or below passing defensive statistics, but they’ve also faced some of the league’s better QB’s and passing attacks. With Philadelphia dominating the time of possession in this game we don’t see the Giants getting many opportunities offensively.

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NFL Player Prop Bets | 49ers vs Rams | Oct 2nd 2025

ASAwins NFL Player Prop Bets | TNF 49ers vs Rams | October 2nd 2025

49ers TE Jake Tonges Over 27.5 Receiving Yards

Jake Tonges has surpassed 27.5 receiving yards in two of three games without George Kittle, including a standout 58-yard performance last week. With the 49ers missing WRs Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings, and Mac Jones (has played better than Purdy) starting at QB, Tonges has a favorable matchup. The Rams rank 25th in efficiency stats against tight ends and have allowed the 4th most total passing yards to TE’s on the season at 1101. The Ram’s defense has allowed all four starting TE’s faced to eclipse this receiving total. Tonges was on the field for nearly 80% of the snaps last week and should see a heavy load this week, especially given the 49ers depleted WR’s corps.

Rams RB Kyren Williams OVER 66.5 Rushing Yards

Williams saw a season low in rush attempts last week against the Colts at 13 and still managed 77 rushing yards. He should see an increase in attempts this week to his season average of 18.5 a year ago. Williams has rushed for 66 or more yards in 16 of his last eighteen regular season games dating back to last season. He had two games to start this season of exactly 66-rushing yards, but is averaging 85.5 yards per game. The 49ers allowed the 6th most rushing yards (1,774) to running backs in 2024 and have allowed 115.5 rushing yards per game this season (17th most).

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NFL player prop bets | Commanders vs Packers | Sept 11 2025

Enjoy a couple of NFL player prop bets for Thursday, September 11th from ASA. Watch weekly for free prop bets and other wagering opportunities from all of the experts here at ASAwins.com

Commanders WR Deebo Samuel Over 4.5 Receptions (+110)

In his debut with the Commanders, Samuel caught 7 of 10 targets for 77 yards. He led the team with a 36% first-read rate (per Fantasy Points Data), indicating he was Daniels’ primary target on over a third of his dropbacks. Additionally, 40% of his targets (4 catches) came behind the line of scrimmage, including two screen passes (per PFF). In Week 1, the Packers’ defense forced Detroit’s Jared Goff into quick, short throws, resulting in a league-low 4.2 average depth of target (ADOT). This aligns perfectly with Samuel’s usage, as his 2.48 yards per route run and 83.8% route participation rate (per Sharp Football Analysis). The Commanders are likely to lean on the pass, with opposing quarterbacks averaging 33.9 pass attempts per game against Green Bay since last season (9th-most in the NFL). Samuel’s projected 7.1 targets rank in the 79th percentile among wide receivers (per EV Analytics). Samuel also thrives against the Packers’ defensive schemes. Since last season, Green Bay has primarily used Cover 2 and Cover 3 coverages. Samuel’s 2024-2025 stats against these coverages are stellar: 20 catches on 26 targets in 129 routes against Cover 3, and 9 catches on 13 targets in 67 routes against Cover 2 (per Sharp Football Analysis). His most common routes—crossers and hitches—have yielded high completion rates against Green Bay, with 83.3% (45/54) on crossers and 82.5% (94/114) on hitches since last season.

Packers WR Matthew Golden Under 30.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

In the Packers’ Week 1 win over the Lions, Golden, a rookie first-round pick, ran routes on just 58% of Green Bay’s dropbacks, earning only 2 targets for a 9% target share (per Fantasy Points Data). He finished with 1 catch for 12 yards, underscoring his limited role in a crowded receiver room. Green Bay’s run-heavy approach was evident, with 54% of offensive snaps being run plays and only 22 dropbacks from Jordan Love, who spreads the ball among multiple pass-catchers, including Jayden Reed (55 receptions, 857 yards in 2024), Romeo Doubs (46 receptions, 601 yards), and Christian Watson (29 receptions, 620 yards).

The Commanders’ secondary allowed only a 60.7% catch rate to wide receivers in 2024, ranking 10th in the NFL (per ESPN). Against Cover 3 schemes, which Washington used on 38% of snaps last season, Golden’s college stats at Texas show modest production: 12 catches on 20 targets for 148 yards across 2024 (per Sports Info Solutions).

With a projected target volume of 2.5-3 (EV Analytics), Golden would need an unusually high yards-per-catch average (12.3+ YPC) to exceed 30.5 yards, unlikely given Washington’s 5.6 yards per target allowed to wide receivers since 2024.

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NFL Player Prop Bets | Cowboys vs Eagles | Sept 4 2025

ASAwins breaks down the Thursday Night NFL game and player prop bets – Cowboys vs Eagles

Dallas Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb – OVER 6 Receptions

In 2023 the Cowboys threw the football 37.4 times per game, most in the NFL. Last season with Cooper Rush under center for 12 games (Prescott injured) they still attempted 37.5 per game. The Cowboys will struggle to run the football in this one so expect a 40+ drop backs for Prescott. Lamb should get plenty of opportunities in this game against the Eagles secondary, which is their defensive weakness. Lamb averaged over 10 targets last season and 6.7 receptions per game with a journeyman QB playing half the season.

Dallas Cowboy TE Jake Ferguson – OVER 3.5 Receptions

We know Dallas is going to throw the football a lot in this game and probably for the season. They lack a consistent running game and will rely on their passing attack with Prescott, Lamb and Pickens. The one guy that is going to benefit with the Pickens addition is Jake Ferguson. Ferguson is Prescott’s safety blanket or check down option when pressured. In 2023, Ferguson averaged 4.1 receptions per game and was targeted 102 total times. Last year he battled some injuries and played in just 14 games but still averaged 4.2 receptions per game.

Philadelphia Eagles RB Saquon Barkley – OVER 18.5 Rush Attempts

In the two games against the Cowboys last year Barkley had just 14 carries in the first meeting, then 31 in the second. We expect this game to be much more like the second clash from a year ago. In 16 games last season Barkley averaged 21.5 carries per game and the Eagles led the league in rush attempts per game at 36.7. The Cowboy’s defense was run on last season 28.4 times per game which was the 21st highest number in the NFL. Dallas also gave up the 4th most rushing yards per game so you can bet the Eagles game plan will be a heavy dose of the ground game. 

Best of luck with all of your player prop bets for Thursday and be sure to check back daily for more betting insights.

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