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NFL MVP Odds | A QB longshot | 9-3-24 | By ASA

NFL MVP Odds – QB Jared Goff Detroit Lions +$2500 – By ASA

Jared Goff’s odds for winning the NFL MVP in 2024 have been a topic of interest among sports analysts and bettors, reflecting a mix of skepticism and optimism based on his performance trajectory and the Lions’ team success. At a higher price point we like Goff as a potential longshot to win the MVP in 2024.

Have you looked at the Lions schedule this season? Detroit and QB Goff will play in a controlled environment or Dome in 14 of their seventeen games this season. Goff and the Lions were 9-3 SU when playing in a Dome last season. Goff threw for over 4,400 yards in 2022 with 29 TD’s to 7 INT’s in leading Detroit to a 9-8 record. Last season, Goff threw for 4,575 yards (2nd most in league) with a 30/12 TD/INT ration in helping the Lions for a 14-6 record and a loss in the NFC Championship game.

Goff’s career statistics in domes show a higher completion percentage, better passer rating, and a more favorable touchdown to interception ratio. When playing indoors, Goff has a 67.4% completion rate, with 92 touchdowns and 32 interceptions over 55 games.

Conversely, his outdoor games statistics are less impressive, with a completion percentage around 62.2%, 101 touchdowns, and 52 interceptions across 71 games.

Goff’s MVP odds have been listed at various points between +2200 and +2500, indicating he’s seen as a dark horse candidate but with significant value for bettors if he performs exceptionally.

Goff has shown improvement and consistency, leading the Lions to two straight winning seasons. His stats from previous seasons, like throwing for over 4,400 yards with a high completion percentage and a favorable touchdown to interception ratio, underline his capability at the helm of an offense. The Lions’ success, particularly if they secure a high seed in the playoffs, could significantly boost Goff’s MVP case, given the award’s tendency to favor quarterbacks from top-seeded teams.

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Seattle Seahawks Preview | ASAwins NFL Win Totals

ASA’s NFC WEST WIN TOTAL PROJECTION

Seattle Seahawks – UNDER 7.5 Wins (+115)

The Seahawks finished last season with a record of 9-8 but they had a negative point differential (-38) and they were outgained by nearly 50 YPG.  Based on those stats alone, Seattle should have won only 7 games last season and that’s where we think they land in 2024 (7 or fewer wins).  They benefited from a positive turnover margin last season and only won 3 games by more than a TD in 2023 vs the 3 of the worst teams in the NFL, Carolina (2 wins last season), Arizona (4 wins last season), and the NY Giants (6 wins last season).  Six of Seattle’s wins last year came by 4 points or fewer or in OT and they were outgained in 5 of those tight 6 wins.  The offense finished 17th in points scored and 22nd in total yardage and we look for the Seahawks to regress on that side of the ball.  The offensive line is ranked 31st (out of 32 teams) by PFF heading into the season and QB Geno Smith took a big step back last season.  Smith had 10 fewer TD’s a year ago compared to 2022 and his completion percentage dropped by 5%.  They had very little running game last season (92 YPG rushing) and operating behind a poor Oline could be problematic for Smith and Company.  The defense allowed the 9th most points in 2023 along with the 3rd most yards gained by opponents despite finishing with a winning record.  Seattle has a new head coach, Mike McDonald, who has never been a head man at any level, so some growing pains are expected.  His coordinators are Ryan Grubb (OC) who has never coached in the NFL and Aden Durdy (DC) who has never been a DC in the NFL.  They faced the 11th most difficult schedule according to PFF and we look for this Seattle team to struggle in 2024.

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