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AFC South Prediction | Texans Under 9.5 wins | 9-4-24

ASA’s AFC SOUTH WIN TOTAL PROJECTION

Houston Texans – Under 9.5 Wins (+125) We think Houston is a bit overvalued after last year’s 10-7 season.  Their opening win total a year ago was 5.5 and now we’re sitting a full 4 games above that at 9.5 and plus juice on the Under. 

They were a bit fortunate last year to get to 10 wins.  Their point differential was just +24 for the season and they finished 7-3 in one score games so we can probably look for a regression there.  They also played one of the league’s easiest schedules in 2023 and that is being replaced with a much tougher slate in 2024 (7th toughest SOS this season).  They face the NFC North & AFC East so @ Green Bay, vs Detroit, @ NY Jets, vs Buffalo, and vs Miami.  On top of that, their other opponents outside the AFC South include games @ Kansas City, @ Dallas, and home vs Baltimore.  Last year their 3 “swing games” so to speak were NY Jets, Denver and Atlanta so a huge upgrade this season in level of opponents.   

They also play 9 road games this season and they were just .500 away from home last year with tight 2 point wins @ Carolina (2 wins on the season), @ Atlanta (7 wins last season) and Houston was destroyed @ NY Jets with Zach Wilson at the helm. 

QB Stroud and HC Ryans had great first seasons but is the dreaded sophomore slump in store for the 2024 year?  Teams now have had a full season of film on Stroud so he won’t sneak up on anyone.  He’s also operating behind an offensive line that ranks near the bottom of the NFL going into this season per PFF (22nd). 

Defensively Houston’s weak spot last year was vs the pass which is not where you want to be vulnerable in the current NFL.  They allowed 6.9 yards per pass attempt (26th) and opposing QB’s completed over 68% of their attempts on the Texans (30th).  This year that shaky pass defense faces the likes of Mahomes, Prescott, Rodgers, Goff, Allen, Tagovailoa, Jackson, Love, and Lawrence to name a few. 

They were also very fortunate to be +10 in turnover margin last season (5th best in the NFL) which will be very tough to match.  This Houston team won’t catch anyone by surprise this year and we have them tabbed for 9 wins so Under is the side here. 

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AFC South Prediction | Titans Win Total Bet | Aug 28th

NFL AFC South prediction on the Tennessee Titans

NFL WIN TOTAL – TENNESSEE TITANS OVER 7.5 WINS +115

This AFC South prediction is arguably our toughest call on an NFL team’s win total for the season. We will touch on the questions surrounding the Titans heading into the 2023-24 season. Can Tennessee move on from their disastrous finish to the season a year ago when they lost 7 straight games? Will the Titans make a bold move towards the future and start an unproven QB in Malik Willis or even rookie QB Will Levis?  Looking at the rest of the AFC South predictions, the Jaguars are the favorite to be the best team in the division again after a 9-8 season a year ago, but is Jacksonville that much better than Tennessee? The Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts both have a win total projection of 6.5 after winning just 7 games between them a year ago. The big advantage we feel the Titans have: 1) Derrick Henry is still a workhorse that finished the season 2nd in rushing with 1,538 yards. 2) IF they decided to stay with QB Ryan Tannehill, who admittedly had a down season a year ago, they still have an advantage over the Texans who may start rookie QB Stroud and the Colts who are looking hard at rookie Anthony Richardson or journeymen QB Gardner Minshew. 3) Head coach Mike Vrabel is 43-27 in Tennessee with three postseason appearances in four seasons. The Texans and Colts have unproven, first year coaches in Demeco Ryans and Shane Steichen. If the Titans get the game manager that QB Tannehill was from 2019 to 2022 they should be an above .500 team. Tannehill threw 76 TD’s to 27 INT’s in that three year stretch and completed over 65% of his attempts in all three seasons. Tennessee owned the best rush defense in the NFL in terms of yards per game allowed but were last in pass defense. That shouldn’t be a concern facing unproved QB’s in the division this season. Last season the Titans lost 10 games but six of those were one score games. They were minus -3 in net turnovers for the season and a few big ones were the difference in several of those one-score games. The Titans face one of the easiest schedules in the NFL this season which includes the other AFC South teams plus four games against the NFC South which isn’t one of the better divisions in football.  Our AFC South prediction is Over 7.5 win on the Tennessee Titans.

OTHER TITANS BETTING OPTIONS:

  • RB Derrick Henry OVER 1175.5 (-112) TOTAL RUSHING YARDS – Henry has rushed for over 1538 yards in three of the last four seasons when he’s played 15 or more games. In 2021-22 he played in just 8 games and still rushed for 937 yards. Henry has been top 10 in rushing attempts per season in four straight years and 1st in three of the four (only season he wasn’t the year he played just 8 games).

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