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AFC South Prediction | Titans Win Total Bet | Aug 28th

NFL AFC South prediction on the Tennessee Titans

NFL WIN TOTAL – TENNESSEE TITANS OVER 7.5 WINS +115

This AFC South prediction is arguably our toughest call on an NFL team’s win total for the season. We will touch on the questions surrounding the Titans heading into the 2023-24 season. Can Tennessee move on from their disastrous finish to the season a year ago when they lost 7 straight games? Will the Titans make a bold move towards the future and start an unproven QB in Malik Willis or even rookie QB Will Levis?  Looking at the rest of the AFC South predictions, the Jaguars are the favorite to be the best team in the division again after a 9-8 season a year ago, but is Jacksonville that much better than Tennessee? The Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts both have a win total projection of 6.5 after winning just 7 games between them a year ago. The big advantage we feel the Titans have: 1) Derrick Henry is still a workhorse that finished the season 2nd in rushing with 1,538 yards. 2) IF they decided to stay with QB Ryan Tannehill, who admittedly had a down season a year ago, they still have an advantage over the Texans who may start rookie QB Stroud and the Colts who are looking hard at rookie Anthony Richardson or journeymen QB Gardner Minshew. 3) Head coach Mike Vrabel is 43-27 in Tennessee with three postseason appearances in four seasons. The Texans and Colts have unproven, first year coaches in Demeco Ryans and Shane Steichen. If the Titans get the game manager that QB Tannehill was from 2019 to 2022 they should be an above .500 team. Tannehill threw 76 TD’s to 27 INT’s in that three year stretch and completed over 65% of his attempts in all three seasons. Tennessee owned the best rush defense in the NFL in terms of yards per game allowed but were last in pass defense. That shouldn’t be a concern facing unproved QB’s in the division this season. Last season the Titans lost 10 games but six of those were one score games. They were minus -3 in net turnovers for the season and a few big ones were the difference in several of those one-score games. The Titans face one of the easiest schedules in the NFL this season which includes the other AFC South teams plus four games against the NFC South which isn’t one of the better divisions in football.  Our AFC South prediction is Over 7.5 win on the Tennessee Titans.

OTHER TITANS BETTING OPTIONS:

  • RB Derrick Henry OVER 1175.5 (-112) TOTAL RUSHING YARDS – Henry has rushed for over 1538 yards in three of the last four seasons when he’s played 15 or more games. In 2021-22 he played in just 8 games and still rushed for 937 yards. Henry has been top 10 in rushing attempts per season in four straight years and 1st in three of the four (only season he wasn’t the year he played just 8 games).

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BALTIMORE RAVENS -4 1st half bet over Indianapolis Colts

While we won’t get involved in the game just yet, we do like the Ravens in the first half of this game. Scheduling favor the Ravens who catch the Colts playing their 3rd straight road game which will lead to a lethargic start by Indy. Not to mention, the Colts have been slow starters this season and are averaging just 8PPG in the first half of games this season.

Baltimore jumped out to a 17-7 halftime lead last week in Denver, they were also up 10-0 at half versus Detroit the game before. In the first two games of the season they put up 17-points in the 1st half versus the Chiefs but trailed, and in the season opener they were up 14-10 over Las Vegas.

The Ravens biggest advantage is their running game which is 3rd in the NFL in rushing yards per game (165), 5th rushing attempts per game and average 5.2 yards per rush attempt.

Indy is averaging just 20PPG overall which is 21st in the NFL and they score 1-point for every 15.7-yards gained which ranks them 16th.

The Colts offense has lacked big plays and are currently below average at 5.0-Yards Per Play which is 24th.

The Indianapolis defense has some respectable overall numbers ranking  8th in total yards allowed per game and 9th in passing YPG, BUT they have not stopped the run allowing 114YPG which ranks them 15th.

The Ravens defense is top 10 in lowest red zone TD’s allowed, 13th in yards per point allowed and 11th in points per game allowed at 23.

After facing two of the best offenses in the NFL in Weeks 1 and 2 (Raiders-chiefs) the Ravens have held 2 similar offenses to the Colts to 17 and 7-points.

Going back to the end of last season the Ravens have outscored their last 11 opponents 172-81 in the first halves of games for an average of +8.2PPG. The play here is Baltimore in the first half -4.Â