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Oklahoma State Cowboys 2026: Why ASA Picks OSU as the Big 12 Prediction

Oklahoma State CowboysCollege football’s most chaotic conference is back with 16 teams, nine league games each, and plenty of room for a team nobody is talking about in August to wreck November. After a 1-11 collapse in 2025, the Oklahoma State Cowboys are that team. Notably, the Oklahoma State Cowboys 2026: Why ASA Picks OSU as the Big 12 Sleeper storyline is already picking up steam among analysts.

ASA’s power ratings have the Cowboys favored in seven of their 12 games. They face only two opponents currently inside our top 30 (Oregon and Texas Tech). A new coach is on the sidelines. Additionally, they have a top-shelf transfer quarterback and one of the most experienced (if brand-new) rosters in the country. This makes Stillwater the most interesting rebuild in the Big 12. Furthermore, it is evidence for Oklahoma State Cowboys 2026: Why ASA Picks OSU as the Big 12 Sleeper to be on every preview list this season.

2026 Big 12 Football Teams

The Big 12 remains a 16-team league in 2026 with no membership changes.

Arizona Wildcats
Arizona State Sun Devils
Baylor Bears
BYU Cougars
Cincinnati Bearcats
Colorado Buffaloes
Houston Cougars
Iowa State Cyclones
Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas State Wildcats
Oklahoma State Cowboys
TCU Horned Frogs
Texas Tech Red Raiders
UCF Knights
Utah Utes
West Virginia Mountaineers

Texas Tech and BYU enter as the consensus favorites after last season’s championship game. Houston and Utah sit in the next tier. Oklahoma State is the team that can jump from afterthought to bowl favorite—or higher—if Year 1 under Eric Morris pans out. As you can see, Oklahoma State Cowboys 2026: Why ASA Picks OSU as the Big 12 Sleeper is a question on the minds of many fans and media alike.

Oklahoma State Cowboys Prediction

Oklahoma State fired legendary head coach Mike Gundy during a disastrous 1-11 campaign and turned to North Texas head coach Eric Morris. Morris just finished 12-2 with the Mean Green and was widely viewed as one of the best hires of the cycle. Analysts including Bill Connelly flagged the move as a high-upside fit; we agree.

COACHING

Morris brought his offense with him. The centerpiece is quarterback Drew Mestemaker, who followed his coach from Denton to Stillwater. As a redshirt freshman at North Texas, Mestemaker threw for 4,379 yards and 34 touchdowns. He led the FBS in passing yards and won American Conference Offensive Player of the Year honors. He is already drawing preseason All-Big 12 attention and Newcomer of the Year buzz.

ROSTER IMPROVEMENTS

The roster overhaul was massive. Morris added 50-plus transfers (sources range from the mid-50s to the mid-60s depending on counting method), including a large contingent of former North Texas players. 247Sports ranked the haul among the top 15 nationally and No. 2 in the Big 12. The Cowboys return almost none of last year’s snaps—one of the lowest percentages in FBS. However, they imported so much proven production that their total career FBS experience ranks near the top of the country. In fact, there are roughly 18,000-plus snaps on the offensive side alone in some tallies, and top-five overall career snaps in CBS Sports’ roster study.

SKILL POSITIONS

That experience shows up in the skill positions. Running back Caleb Hawkins and wide receiver Wyatt Young also came from North Texas and earned preseason All-Big 12 notice. The offense should be explosive from Week 1. The defense is the question mark. Indeed, Morris’s North Texas units improved under coordinator Skyler Cassity, who followed him to Stillwater, but the Cowboys must prove they can stop Big 12 offenses after ranking near the bottom of the league a year ago. Chemistry on a roster with 80-plus new players will decide whether this is a six-win team or a nine-win surprise. Ultimately, the Oklahoma State Cowboys 2026: Why ASA Picks OSU as the Big 12 Sleeper discussion will depend on how Morris’s system and the new talent come together in conference play.

2026 schedule snapshot

Oklahoma State opens at Tulsa, hosts Oregon in Morris’s home debut, then plays Murray State before a critical conference opener at West Virginia. League games include home dates against UCF, Colorado, Texas Tech, and Kansas, plus road trips to Houston, Iowa State, Kansas State, and Arizona State. Missing BYU and Utah on the conference slate helps. The two games against current top-30 teams (Oregon and Texas Tech) are both at Boone Pickens Stadium.

ASA’s power ratings currently project the Cowboys as favorites in seven games. That lines up with several national projections that have them in the 8-4 to 9-3 range. This is true if the offense translates and the defense is merely average. Preseason media polls have them around ninth in the league—exactly where a sleeper lives.

If Mestemaker plays like the nation’s leading passer and Morris’s staff installs the system quickly, Oklahoma State will not finish ninth. The Cowboys have the pieces to contend for a bowl berth at minimum. They also have a surprise run at the top half of the Big 12 if a few results bounce their way. That’s why ASA has Oklahoma State as the Big 12 sleeper of 2026. In summary, Oklahoma State Cowboys 2026: Why ASA Picks OSU as the Big 12 Sleeper is rooted in their upside to quickly rebuild and surprise the conference this season.

Check back at ASAwins.com for updated power ratings, weekly picks, and betting analysis as the season unfolds.

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