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Kansas State vs Colorado Prediction | October 12

ASA free bet on Kansas State -3.5 at Colorado, 10:15PM ET

Don’t be fooled by the Buffalos two most recent wins over vastly overrated teams in Baylor and UCF.

Colorado’s defense will be in trouble here against a K-State offense that averages 432YPG (43rd) and 6.9 yards per play (27th) and rushes it for 252YPG (8th) at a 6.9 yards per rush (2nd). The Buffs allow nearly 380YPG defensively overall, 156 rushing YPG (86th) at a 4.0 yards per carry average.

CU will be one dimensional here offensively as they can’t or won’t run the football. The Buffs rank 120th or worst in rushing YPG, rushing attempts p/game and Yards p/rush. Clearly the goal in Boulder is to throw it every down with QB Shedeur Sanders who is one of the better quarterbacks in the country but will he have enough opportunities?

The Wildcats will dominate the time of possession with their ground game.

K-State has historically been very good in conference play  with a 43-29-4 ATS record dating back to 2016. More recently, they are 24-13-3 ATS in Big12 action since 2020.  

We like Kansas State vs Colorado in this prediction.

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Miami Fl vs. California Prediction | Free Bet | 10-5-24

College Football Betting Preview: Miami Hurricanes vs. California Golden Bears Prediction

Date: Saturday, October 5, 2024Time: 10:30 PM PTLocation: California Memorial Stadium, Berkeley, CA 

Overview by ASA:

The Miami Hurricanes, riding a wave of offensive prowess and a 5-0 record, venture to the West Coast to face the California Golden Bears, who stand at 3-1 with a defense that has been the backbone of their season. This matchup pits Miami’s high-octane offense against Cal’s stingy defense, setting the stage for what could be one of the most intriguing games of Week 6.

Miami Hurricanes’ Offensive Firepower:

Miami has been nothing short of explosive, averaging 49.4 points per game, ranking them second in the nation. Quarterback Cam Ward has been phenomenal, throwing for over 300 yards in every game this season, supported by a dynamic ground game led by backs like Damien Martinez. The Hurricanes’ ability to score from anywhere on the field has been their hallmark, often putting games out of reach early.

California’s Defensive Wall:

On the flip side, California’s defense has been the talk of the town, limiting opponents to just 4.3 yards per play, showcasing a unit that’s disciplined, aggressive, and very much in the conversation for elite defensive status. This defense hasn’t allowed more than 14 points in a game this season, a testament to their ability to stifle offenses and keep games close.

The Betting Angle:

Spread: The line has been set at Miami -10.5, which reflects the bookmakers’ confidence in Miami’s offensive dominance. However, taking Cal +10.5 might be the smarter play here. The Golden Bears’ defense hasn’t faced an offense like Miami’s, but conversely, Miami hasn’t been challenged by a defense as formidable as Cal’s all season.

Why Bet on Cal +10.5:

Defensive Matchup: Cal’s defense will be the best Miami has seen this season. Their ability to generate turnovers (10 INTs, leading the nation) and their prowess against the run (3.2 yards per rush allowed) could keep Miami’s scoring under control more than expected.

Home Advantage: Playing in Berkeley, with its historically tough environment for visiting teams, could play into Cal’s hands. Cal as a home dog dating back to 2016 is 16-7-1 ATS, nearly 70% cover rate. Conversely, the Hurricanes are 9-10 ATS as a road favorite since 2018..

Offensive Awakening: Cal’s 9-points against Florida State in their last game is very misleading as the Bears put up 410 total yards of offense at 5.5 yards per play. Prior to the FSU game the Bears had scored 31,21 and 31-points.

Prediction:

While Miami’s high-powered offense could still put points on the board, expect Cal’s defense to make significant stands, potentially leading to a lower-scoring game than anticipated. If Cal’s offense finds any rhythm, covering the spread becomes increasingly likely. Coming off a loss two weeks ago and then a bye week, we like the Bears and the double-digits.

FREE Betting Pick: California +10.5.

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CFB FREE BET | Arizona vs New Mexico prediction | 8-31-24

#182 ASA FREE PLAY ON Arizona -30 over New Mexico, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET

New Arizona head coach Brent Brennan takes over a team loaded with talent after former head man Jedd Fisch moved onto Washington.  The Cats have 3 players projected as 1st round draft picks next year (WR, OL, and CB).  On top of that Arizona returns QB Fafita who put up big numbers (2,900 yards passing and 25 TD’s) after taking over the starting job in game 4 last year. 

The Cats put up 38 PPG after Fifita took over and they should log huge numbers here vs a New Mexico defense that gave up 567 yards last week to FCS Montana State. 

The Lobos were double digit dogs at HOME to Montana State and the final score (lost 35-31) was not indicative of the Bobcats dominance.  New Mexico had 2 defensive TD’s in the game and were outgained by over 200 yards, outrushed by over 200 yards, and had 10 minute time of possession disadvantage.  Now after getting dominated by a very good FCS team, the Lobos take the road and face on one of the better FBS teams. 

Arizona has an advantage with a full game of film on New Mexico as well while the Lobos are flying blind not knowing how the Wildcats will operate with a new coaching staff.  Arizona could easily push 50 points here while we don’t expect the Lobos offense to do much after scoring just 17 points (minus the defensive points) last week at home.  Blowout.  

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Miami FL vs. Florida Preview | 8-31-24 | By ASA

The Miami Hurricanes will face off against the Florida Gators on Saturday, August 31, at 3:30 PM ET.

Miami enters the game as a 2.5-point favorite, with the over/under set at 54 points. In the 2023 season, Miami posted a 7-6 record straight up (SU) and 6-7 against the spread (ATS). As head coach Mario Cristobal begins his third year with the Hurricanes, he faces considerable pressure following a less-than-stellar 14-11 overall record in his first two seasons.

The team will debut new starting quarterback Cam Ward, a transfer from Washington State, where he threw for 3,700 yards and 25 touchdowns last year. Miami’s offensive line is largely intact, and last season the offense averaged 31.5 points per game (38th nationally) and 6.4 yards per play (24th nationally). However, only 43% of their total offensive yardage returns, ranking them 78th in the nation.

On defense, Miami allowed 335 yards per game, placing them 26th nationally, and 5.1 yards per play, ranking 36th. They were particularly strong against the run, giving up just 3.5 yards per carry, which was 20th in the nation. However, the team lost 8 of its top 11 tacklers and returns only 41% of last season’s total tackles, ranking 116th nationally. Historically, Miami has fared well against in-state rival Florida, with a 7-1-1 spread record in their last nine meetings since 1986.

The Florida Gators, on the other hand, finished the 2023 season with a 5-7 record SU and 4-8 ATS. Head coach Billy Napier is also under pressure as he begins his third year in Gainesville, with an 11-14 record over his first two seasons and no bowl appearance last year.

Florida returns 8 starters on offense, including quarterback Graham Mertz, who ranked third in the nation with a 73% completion rate. The Gators also bring back their top running back and 3 of their top 4 wide receivers.

Defensively, Florida returns several starters on the defensive line and in the secondary, but they struggled last season, allowing 6.4 yards per play, which ranked 124th nationally. The Gators face a tough challenge this season, as they play the most difficult strength of schedule in college football, with 8 of their opponents entering the season ranked in the top 25. Despite this, Florida has performed well as a home underdog, covering the spread in 5 of the 7 games since 2018.

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ASA College Free Bet Mar 11

ASA CBB FREE PICK on Wisconsin vs Michigan State, Friday at 6:30 PM ET

*This play is contingent on Johnny Davis playing for Wisconsin.*  As of now it looks like he will play but might not be 100% and could be on a minute count.  We are going to make sure he’s in the line up before playing this one.  The Badgers are not the slow paced team that many still make them out to be.  They are ranked 5th in pace in the Big 10 this season.  MSU likes to get up and down the court (129th nationally in pace) as well so we look for this game to have plenty of possessions.  These 2 met twice this year with wildly different results.  In the first meeting MSU won 86-74 (162 total points) and Sparty shot lights out hitting over 50% of their shots.  In round 2 Wisconsin went to Michigan State and won the game 70-62 (132 total points) and the two teams combined to shoot 44% from the field but just 28% from beyond the arc and they still nearly reached tonight’s number of 136.  Both teams excel from the FT line (both make 75%) which lends to a higher scoring game as well.  Wisconsin games have reached at least 135 points in 6 of their last 7 games.  MSU games have reached at least 140 total points in 6 of their last 7 games.  These 2 teams are a combined 36-25-1 to the OVER this season.  We like this one Over the total.