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NFL free pick | Sept 24th | Steelers vs. Raiders

ASA PLAY ON #475/476 UNDER 43.5 Pittsburgh Steelers at Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday 8:20pm ET

Our model is projecting 40.25 points being scored in this game and we couldn’t agree more with our computers for this NFL free pick. The Steelers offense is near the bottom of every key category including 31st in totally YPG, 29th in yards per play, 31st in rushing YPG, 27th in rushing yards per attempt and 26th in scoring at 16.5PPG. Obviously, their scoring numbers are even exaggerated considering they had 2 defensive scores last week. Take away those 2 defensive TD’s and this offense is averaging 9.5PPG. Las Vegas played a similar team to Pittsburgh in the opener against Denver and they combined for 33 total points. Last week against a highly motivated Bills team they lost 10-38 with Buffalo getting a garbage TD with 5 minutes left or that game stays Under this number. Las Vegas struggled offensively in that game with 13 first downs, 55-rushing yards and 185-passsing yards. In fact, the Raiders offense is just as bad as Pittsburgh’s. they rank 30th in total YPG, 30th in rushing, 31st in yards per rush, 21st in passing yards and are last in the league in scoring at 13.5PPG. Both defenses are better than their numbers to date as both allow over 5.5 yards per play and Over 27PPG but today each team will be facing low level offenses so expect much better showings by each. We like this game Under 43.5 as today’s NFL free pick.  

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NFL Player Prop | MNF | Sept 18, 2023

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS QB CARR OVER 232.5 PASSING YARDS

Saints QB Carr looked good in his Saint’s debut going 23/33 for 305YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT. Last season the Panthers defense was around league average in YPPL allowed at 5.5. They were 23rd in opponents’ completion percentage allowed and 14th in Yards Per completion allowed at 10.1. Carr can struggle at times when pressured but the Panthers were 25th in the NFL in QB pressure rate a year ago. Carr has thrown for over 231.5 passing yards in 35 of his last 50 games, 17 of his last 25 and 11 of his last 16. Odds are he’ll get Over 232.5 tonight.

CAROLINA PANTHERS QB BRYCE YOUNG OVER 0.5 INT’s

Panthers QB Young got off to a shaky debut in the opener against the Falcons with just 146 passing yards on 38 attempts with 2 INT’s. He’s playing behind a banged up offensive line and doesn’t have receivers that can separate. Tonight, he faces a Saint’s defense that was 8th in sack percentage D and 6th in sacks per game a year ago. This Saint’s ball-hawking secondary picked off Titans Ryan Tannehill three times in the opener. We expect the ‘young’ rookie QB to make a few errant throws tonight with at least one interception.

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MNF Prop Bets | Bills vs. Jets Player Props

MNF Prop Bets on the Buffalo Bills vs. NY Jets game – Sept 11th 2023

UNDER 70.5 RECEIVING YARDS – BUFFALO BILLS WR STEFON DIGGS – Last season Diggs averaged 89.1-Yards Receiving per game with a 154 total targets on the season. In two games against the Jets, he was held to an average of 4 receptions per game and 65-Yards receiving. Diggs faded down the stretch last season, averaging under 67.5 receiving yards in four of the Bills last six games. Last season the Jets defense ranked 3rd in passing yards allowed at 189.4YPG. Buffalo averaged 261.4-Passing Yards Per Game a year ago which was 5th best in the NFL. In the two games against this Jets defense last year, Allen and Bills threw for just 352-total yards.  

OVER 35.5 RUSHING YARDS – BUFFALO BILLS QB JOSH ALLEN – Allen was 2nd on the Bills team last year in rushing at 762 total rushing yards. That’s an average of 47.6-Rushing Yards Per Game. He has rushed for over 760-Yards in each of the last two seasons. Against a Jets defense that is extremely tough to pass on, it should lead to more rushing opportunities for Allen when his receivers are covered downfield. In the two games against this Jets D a year ago he rushed for 47 and 86 yards respectively.

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NFL FREE BET | SEPT 10TH | Jags vs. Colts

ASA FREE NFL PREDICTION on the Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts, Sunday Sept 10th 2023

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS TEAM TOTAL – UNDER 20.5 POINTS

The Colts offense is in trouble! They are starting rookie QB Richardson out of Florida who only started 13 games with the Gators. It would be much easier for Richardson if he had RB Taylor in the backfield to take pressure off the passing game. Taylor led the league in rushing yards in 2021 but demanded a trade before the season and is now on the PUP list and out for four games. Indianapolis averaged just 17PPG last season which ranked 30th in the league. On average, it took them 18.3 yards gained to score 1-point which was also 30th. The Colts lacked explosiveness too with an offense that averaged only 4.8-Yards Per Play which was again 30th. The Jags made huge strides defensively last season allowing just 21.4PPG compared to 26.9PPG they gave up the season before. Jacksonville allowed 13.1-Yards per Point in 2021 (30th) and improved to 16.4-Yards Per Point allowed in 2022. It is going to be a long season for the Colts and we don’t see them scoring more than 20-points in this opener.

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MLB free bet | Sept 8th | Nelly Sports

MLB free bet from Nelly Sports – Friday #953/954 UNDER 10.5 St. Louis Cardinals/Cincinnati Reds 6:40 PM ET

Even in a lost season the Cardinals are still playing hard, taking two of three with Atlanta this week while 5-3 in the past eight games. St. Louis has experienced a recent uptick in production at the plate, scoring five or more runs in seven of those eight games but the Cardinals also scored a total of four runs in four games just prior to that. On the season St. Louis has a .735 team OPS vs. left-handers for a significant decline compared to pairings vs. right-handers and over the past 10 games the Cardinals have averaged just 4.0 runs per nine vs. southpaw pitching, batting .229. Andrew Abbott poses a difficult matchup for St. Louis as the rookie left-hander has excellent numbers in 17 starts as just a 24-year old, drafted in the 2nd round in 2021. Abbott had incredible strikeout numbers in the minors and has delivered a 9.9 K/9 in his 95 MLB innings with a 3.22 ERA. Drew Rom is only 23 years old and his ascension to the MLB level has not produced as strong of results, though he has only made three starts. His ERA is 7.24 to boost tonight’s total but his FIP is nearly two runs lower and he has made two adequate starts since an ugly MLB debut in which he allowed eight runs while getting 11 outs. Rom had a 10.5 K/9 in AAA with the Orioles before being dealt to St. Louis and in two starts at AAA for the Cardinals he had a 14.7 K/9 and an 0.82 ERA as he earned an opportunity and could start to put things together. While the Reds have decent numbers vs. left-handers for the season, they have hit just .203 with 1.1 runs per nine in the past 10 games vs. lefties and Cincinnati has been held to four or fewer runs in seven of the past 10 games overall. Neither bullpen has been in ideal form of late, but the Reds did have an off day Thursday while the Cardinals managed to use only two relievers for short outings last night. St. Louis lost 8-5 yesterday after winning two games in Atlanta but there were only 18 hits in the game and the Cardinals hit .429 with runners in scoring position, scoring five runs in a game they had just one extra-base hit in. 16 of the past 20 Cincinnati home games have featured 10 or fewer runs despite a high scoring reputation for the ballpark and the recent elevated scoring trends for both teams. 

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