Tag: American Sports Analysts

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Free College Bets | Wisconsin vs Indiana | Nov 15

#344 ASA FREE COLLEGE BET – ON Indiana -29 over Wisconsin, Saturday at 12 PM ET

It’s not often we lay a huge number but this one is warranted.  Indiana has played only 3 Big 10 home games and they’ve won those by 53 points (vs Illinois), by 50 points (vs UCLA), and by 25 points (vs MSU). 

IU head coach Cignetti is not afraid to bury teams and he’s done just that at home.  The Hoosiers are undefeated at home since Cignetti took over at the beginning of last season and their average margin of victory in those games is +36 points. 

They are in the top 10 nationally in both total offense and total defense.  This offense has put up at least 30 points in 17 of their 23 games under Cignetti. 

The problem for Wisconsin is they can’t score.  They have only 4 total TD’s in their 6 Big 10 games and they haven’t topped 300 total yards in a conference game this season.  Last week they beat Washington at home 13-10 with 205 total yards and 48 yards passing, of which 24 came from their punter on a fake punt. 

It looks like true freshman Carter Smith will get his first ever collegiate start here.  That’s a rough spot for an inexperienced QB.  If Wisconsin can’t run the ball, they are in huge trouble. 

The IU defense allows just 83 YPG on the ground so Smith will have to somehow create some plays through the air.  The Badger defense has been very solid over the last few games but they are running into a juggernaut here as Indiana averages 548 YPG on 7.7 YPP at home this season. 

This one looks like another Hoosier home blow out. 

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College Basketball Free Bet | Tuesday, Nov 11th 2025

#632 ASA College Basketball Free PLAY ON North Dakota State -4 over Cal State Northridge (CSUN), Tuesday at 8 PM ET

This line opened NDSU +1 and now they are -4.  It was going to be a rated play at +1 but at -4 it’s now just an opinion.

CSUN is in a bad situational spot here playing their 3rd road game in 6 days.  They played @ Northern Iowa last Thursday (lost by 29 points), then played @ North Dakota on Sunday (won by 8) and now @ North Dakota State tonight.  CSUN is 2-1 on the season and probably ready to get back home to California after being gone for a full week (left last Wednesday).  The Matadors are coming off a 93-85 win @ North Dakota Sunday which wasn’t overly impressive.  UND is ranked as the worst team in the Summit League, basically tied with UMKC (per KenPom) and the 324th best team in the country.  The Fighting Hawks were just 12-21 last season and only won 5 Summit League games.  Now CSUN, just 48 hours later, faces one of the top teams in the Summit (NDSU rated 3rd best team in the league) and the Bison will be hungry for a win after starting the season 0-2 losing @ Oregon State by 2 and @ UC Davis by 12.  This will be their first home game of the season and unlike CSUN, they’ve had a full week off to get ready for this one.  After 2 games, the Bison are shooting just 15% from beyond the arc and we’d expect them to shoot much better at home tonight.  This team led the NATION in 3 point shooting last year hitting 40% of their triples so positive regression is likely tonight.  NDSU should get plenty of extra possessions on Tuesday as CSUN has been a turnover machine this year coughing it up on over 24% of their possessions while the Bison create turnovers on 22% of their defensive possessions.  NDSU, on the other hand, has done a nice job of taking care of the ball with just a 14% turnover rate.  They should also control the boards as they rank in the top 70 in both offensive and defensive rebounding while CSUN is outside the top 300 in both of those this season.  We like the hungry Bison to get this win at home.

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NFL Free Bet | Cardinals vs Seahawks | Nov 9 2025

#267 ASA FREE PLAY ON Arizona Cardinals +7 over Seattle Seahawks, Sunday at 4 PM ET

The Cards are on a nice little roll since Jacoby Brissett took over at QB.  They have covered 3 straight and took 2 of the NFL’s best teams (Indy and Green Bay) to the wire in close losses.  They’re catching Seattle a bit overvalued right now and at the top of their market in our opinion.  We’ve been pro Seahawks all season and won with them on a few occasions but this is a fade spot.  They’ve won and covered 6 of their last 7 games and this is just the 2nd time this season they’ve been favored by more than 3.5 points.  To put this number in perspective, the Seahawks were favored by the same number (-7 or -7.5) at home vs New Orleans a few weeks ago.  The Cards sit 12 spots ahead of the Saints via the DVOA metric yet we’re getting the same number.  Seattle is 2-2 at home this season (4-0 on the road) and their numbers here at Lumen Field as they average 53 fewer YPG and almost a full YPP less (0.8).  Three of their four home games have been decided by 1 score.  Since Brissett took over, the Arizona offense is averaging 357 YPG, 26 PPG, and they lead the league in 3rd down conversion rate during that 3 game stretch.  Prior to that with Kyler Murray at QB, the Cardinals were averaging 288 YPG and 20.6 PPG.  We think Arizona does enough to hang around here and cover this inflated number.  Take the points. 

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NFL free bet today | Falcons vs Patriots | Nov 2 2025

#455 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Falcons +5.5 over New England Patriots, Sunday a 1 PM ET

The Falcons are in desperation mode after losing back to back games and dropping to 3-4.  Last week they were embarrassed by Miami which gives us some extra line value here.  The look ahead line was +3 and now they are getting 5.5 points.  Atlanta was without QB Penix and top WR London last week and they are both back for this game.  Despite their 3-4 record, the Birds have been favored in 4 of their last 5 games getting points only from Buffalo during that stretch (+4 vs Bills).  Now they are getting nearly a TD vs a New England team that has a solid record but has played, by far, the weakest schedule in the NFL.  5 of their 6 wins have come against the Browns, Titans, Saints, Dolphins, and Panthers.  Those 5 teams have a combined 10-31.  The one solid win was 23-20 vs Buffalo (Atlanta also beat Buffalo 24-14) in a game the Pats were outgained but benefited from 3 Bills.  New England is just 2-2 at home this year with losses to the Raiders and Steelers.  They were just 2.5 point favorites vs Las Vegas and they were home dog vs Pittsburgh.  Now laying 5.5 vs a decent Atlanta team?  Despite the worse record and playing the much more difficult schedule, the Falcons have comparable YPG (Atlanta +68 YPG & NE +58 YPG) and YPP differential numbers (both +0.5 YPP margins).  The Falcons have the better D (#2 in the NFL in total D and #1 pass defense) and should be able to slow down Pats QB Maye in this game.  Atlanta will be out to prove a point after a horrible performance last week and we look for a close game.  Take the points.   

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NBA Free Bet | Knicks vs Bulls | Oct 31 2025

ASA NBA Free Bet UNDER 233.5 NY Knicks at Chicago Bulls, 8:10pm ET

Our model is projecting 221.6 total points being scored in this game and we couldn’t agree more with it’s findings. The Bulls have the 4th best Defensive Efficiency rating in the NBA allowing just 1.085-points per possession. The Knicks aren’t far behind allowing 1.120PPP (11th). The Bulls currently have slightly faster pace of play numbers but they’ve also faced four teams that prefer to play uptempo. The Knicks are the 24th slowest team in the NBA at 98.7 possessions per game so they’ll look to muck this game up. The Bulls currently have solid Offensive Efficiency numbers, but again that is impacted by their schedule. The Knicks are averaging 1.120-points per possession which ranks 24th in the league. New York is shooting just 40.6% on the season (28th) and hit just 33% from beyond the arc. The Bulls have solid shooting percentages but the four teams they’ve beaten this season rank 18th or worse in FG% defense, which has inflated those numbers. We like UNDER in this one as todays NBA Free Bet

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