Category: Freepicks

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Commanders vs Giants prediction – Oct 22nd

NFL FREE BET #462 ASA PLAY ON NY Giants +3 over Washington Commanders, Sunday at 1 PM ET

Giants are coming off a solid outing @ Buffalo giving the Bills all they could handle last week in a 14-9 loss.  NY outgained Buffalo in the game and had the ball 1st and goal at the Bills 1 yard line with a chance to win in the final seconds.  Veteran QB Tyrod Taylor had a solid outing and it looks like he’ll be under center again today as Daniel Jones recovers from an injury.  Washington won @ Atlanta last week but they were outplayed dramatically in the stats.  In that win the Commanders were -13 first downs, outgained 402 to 197, and 5.1 to 3.9 on a YPP basis.  They won the turnover battle 3 to 0 which was the difference in the game.  The Giants have covered 7 of the last 9 in this series and as a dog vs Washington they’ve covered 4 of the last 5.  We like the line value here as in their only 2 home games this year NYG was a 3 point dog vs Dallas and a 2.5 point dog vs Seattle, 2 teams ranked 10th and 11th per DVOA and now they are getting the same number vs a Washington team ranked 24th per DVOA.  We’re catching the Giants at the bottom of the market here but off a solid outing vs a high level team vs an overvalued Washington team.  Take the points.

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Nevada vs San Diego State prediction – Oct 21st 2023

FREE BET #377/378 ASA PLAY ON Over 48 Points – Nevada vs San Diego State, Saturday at 9 PM ET

Our free bet or free pick today is on this Total between the Wolfpack and Aztecs. Neither offense has been high scoring or dynamic this season which is why this total is low.  However, let’s take a closer look.  San Diego State has played 4 high level defenses so far this season in UCLA, Ohio, Oregon and Air Force.  Those 4 teams all rank in the top 13 in total defense nationally.  The SDSU offense expectedly struggled in those games.  In the 2 games when the didn’t face an elite defense, the Aztecs scored 41 & 31 points.  They won’t be facing an elite defense here to say the least.  Nevada’s defense ranks dead last in CFB in total defense and YPP allowed.  The Wolfpack also rank 132nd in PPG allowed and they’ve given up at least 31 points in 5 of their 6 games this season.  We expect SDSU to look very good offensively on Saturday night.  On the other side, the Aztecs have a reputation for being very solid defensively but that is not the case this season.  They rank 119th in total defense and 128th in YPP allowed.  In their last 5 games the Aztec defense has given up 35, 26, 34, 49, and 34 points.  The Nevada offense struggled early this season, but they have now scored at least 24 points in 3 of their last 4 games.  The only time they didn’t reach 24 during that stretch was vs Fresno who ranks in the top 30 in total defense.  Last week, the Wolfpack offense played as well as they have all season averaging 7.0 YPP vs rival UNLV.  Nevada put up 27 points in that loss to UNLV (45-27 final score) but could have scored more with 2 turnovers deep in UNLV territory.  This total is set low due to the offensive numbers each team has put up this year but it’s too low based on the poor defensive performances.  Free bet on the Over in today’s Wolfpack vs Aztecs game. 

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Seahawks vs Bengals Prediction – Sunday, Oct 15th 2023

ASA free bet on: #257/258 OVER 45 Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday 1PM ET

You should check the weather before betting this Over, but if the wind isn’t as bad as they are predicting this O/U number will move up dramatically. We have an opportunity to buy low here on the Bengals offense that has underachieved this season prior to last week’s game against the Cardinals. This Cincinnati offense is essentially the same unit that has been top 9 in scoring for two straight seasons at over 25.7PPG. QB Burrows was injured early this season, but he looked much better last week against the Cards throwing for 317 yards with 3 TD’s to 1 INT. He was also willing to push the ball down field completing 8 of 12 passes of 10+ yards. The Seahawks pass defense allows opposing QB’s to complete 68.5% of their pass attempts (25th), give up 6.8 yards per pass attempt (21st) and 280 passing yards per game which is 30th. Those numbers come despite facing Carolina and the Giants who have 2 of the three worst offenses in terms of DVOA in the league. In their other two games the Seahawks allowed the Rams/Stafford to throw for 334 yards and the Lions/Goff to complete 28/35 passes for 323 yards. Offensively we expect the Seahawks to have success against this Bengals defense and put up plenty of points on their own. Seattle is 13th in yards per rush at 4.4, the Bengals allow 5.3YPC (30th). Seattle averages 5.6YPP, Cincinnati gives up 5.9YPP (25th). The Hawks are averaging 27.8PPG on the year,6th most and face a Bengals D giving up 22.8PPG (20th). This game should be a back-and-forth affair with plenty of points by both teams.

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Kansas vs. Oklahoma State prediction – Oct 14th 2023

POINT TRAIN FREE BET – OKLAHOMA STATE +3 over Kansas – 2:30PM CT

You can bet the Cowboys head coach Mike Gundy has pointed out to his team that they are underdogs at home to perennial Big 12 doormat Kansas today. Granted, KU is not the team of the past and head coach Leipold has done some fantastic things in Lawrence, but this number should be a pick’em by our power ratings. Okie State has won 9 of the last ten meetings outright, covered 8 of those with every one of those wins coming by a touchdown or more. Last season, the Jayhawks pulled the 37-16 upset at home as a 3-point dog with turnovers being the main culprit for OSU. Do you know how many times the Jayhawks have been a road favorite in the last ten years? ONCE! In that same 10-year span the Cowboys have been home dogs 14 times and have covered & won 9 of those. Grab the points.

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Florida vs South Carolina bet | Saturday, Oct 14th 2023 |

ASA free bet on: #142 South Carolina -2 vs Florida, 3:30PM ET

South Carolina is in a good situation here coming off a bye week and playing with revenge from a blowout loss a year ago to Florida 6-38. The big difference between these two teams on paper is their defenses as the Gators rank in the top half of the country in most categories and the Gamecocks don’t. But Florida is over-rated in our opinion and was recently exposed by Kentucky who gashed them for 329 rushing yards on 36 carries. Even a bad Vanderbilt team averaged 6.4 yards per play against the Gators last week, which is well above their season average of 5.5YPP. South Carolina is better than their 2-3 SU record as the three losses this season have come against ranked teams with a combined 15-1 SU record. SC QB Rattler is completing over 72% of his pass attempts (10th) for 312 passing yards per game which is 14th best in the nation. Florida has some impressive pass defense statistics but those comes against a weak-passing schedule with three of their games versus teams that rank 108th or worse in passing YPG. The Gators are ‘average’ on offense ranking 59th in total YPG, 63rd in rushing YPG and 55th in passing YPG. We can’t see this Florida team keeping up with the Gamecocks in this one. We are backing the revenge minded host here.

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