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Free Bet – Air Force vs. Colorado State – Oct 28th

ASA play on: #162 Colorado State +14 vs. Air Force, 7:00PM ET

We are on the home dog here with the Rams plus the points in this rivalry as our free bet. The points are a premium here with the oddsmakers projecting around 46 total points being scored. Air Force has played three road games with wins at 0-8 Sam Houston State, at 3-5 San Jose State and 3-4 Navy. The Falcons have put up some impressive offensive numbers, but they’ve come against Utah State, San Jose State, San Diego State who all rank 91st or worse in total defense and Wyoming who is 73rd. Granted, Colorado State is bad defensively, one of the worst in college football, but they have given up the majority of their yards via the pass at 308 passing yards per game allowed. The Rams actually allow just 3.9 yards per rush which is around the national average. Air Force relies heavily on their running game which is best in the nation in rushing yards per game at 306. Colorado State is coming off a close loss against an improved 6-1 UNLV team where they managed 5.8 yards per play while allowing 5.9YPP. The Falcons are coming off a game against the option Naval Academy and now must travel to CSU to face an entirely different offense. The Rams complete 63.7% of their pass attempts which is 37th best in college football and complete 28.6 pass attempts per game for 336.4YPG which is 6th most in CFB. Last year the Falcons were favored by 22-points at home and won by 12. They are clearly over-valued here so let’s grab the live home dog with backdoor ability as today’s free bet.

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ASA free bet California vs UCLA Jan 27

#837 ASA FREE PLAY ON California +16 over UCLA, Thursday at 9 PM ET

UCLA is in a big time letdown spot here after their biggest win of the season on Tuesday vs Arizona.  The Bruins had some serious motivation in that game as they were home dogs and wanted to prove a point.  They did just that.  Now they face a Cal team they beat by 8 earlier this month so we expect a flat effort from UCLA.  It’s also their 3rd game in 6 days having already played on Saturday and Tuesday.  California is in a better situation having played just 1 game in the last 12 days.  The Bears are the type of team and play the type of game that will make it tough for the Bruins to pull away.  They play solid defense ranking 46th nationally in eFG% allowed and they take care of the ball turning it over just 16.7% of the time – 52nd lowest mark in the country.  Both teams like to play at a very slow pace ranking below 300th in tempo which is why this total only sits in the high 120’s.  In what is expected to be a low scoring game, the favorite can have a tough time pulling away as the possessions will be limited.  In the first meeting a few weeks ago the Bears made only one 3-point shot (1 of 14 for 7%) and went to the FT line just 7 times.  Despite that they still hung tough losing 60-52.  UCLA wins here but not by 16+.

ASA NBA free play Nov 24

Play on: Atlanta Hawks -4 over San Antonio Spurs, 7:40PM ET

Two teams streaking in opposite directions – The Hawks have won 5 in a row, all by double-digits, San Antonio has lost 5 in a row by an average of 15PPG. Atlanta has the 5th best OEFF numbers in the NBA at 1.125PPP whereas the Spurs average 1.055PPP which ranks 25th. Defensively the Spurs rank 15th in DEFF, the Hawks 27th but in their last five games the Spurs have slipped to 26th in DEFF, the Hawks are 13th. The Hawks have some horrendous road numbers, but they’ve played a brutally tough schedule away from home. Of their 9 road games only 1 has come against a team with a losing record. San Antonio is 2-5 SU at home this season without a win over a team with a winning record.  Atlanta 5-1 ATS their last six as a favorite / Spurs 1-4 ATS their last five as a dog.