Category: Freepicks

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NFL Player Prop Bets | Sept 7th 2025 | 3 Bets

ASAwins has 3 NFL player prop bets for you today, Sunday September 7th 2025. We have sifted through all the NFL games and have come up with our three best bets for today. Enjoy the games Sunday.

Cleveland Browns TE David Njoku – Anytime TD scorer +250

Passing Touchdowns Allowed: The Bengals allowed 29 opponent passing touchdowns during the regular season, ranking them 30th out of 32 NFL teams in passing touchdowns allowed per game (1.8 per game). Receptions Allowed to Tight Ends: The Bengals allowed 111 receptions to tight ends over the season, averaging 6.53 receptions per game. This placed them 31st in the NFL.  The Bengals defense surrendered the second-most TE touchdowns last season. Cincinnati’s offense, sharper after preseason reps, will likely push Cleveland to keep passing all game. Njoku could cash in on an anytime TD early or late.

Arizona Cardinals RB James Conner Over 15.5 Carries -130

James Conner is set to clear 15.5 carries against the Saints in Week 1. In 2024, he averaged 14.8 carries per game (236 carries over 16 games), hitting 16+ in 7 games. Conner, who thrives on volume and ranks second among RBs in rushing avoided tackles per game (4.5) and yards after contact per attempt (3.6) over the last two seasons. The Saints’ run defense ranked 28th last year, allowing 118.5 rushing yards per game and were 25th in opponents rushing attempts per game (28.8). With a competitive game script and Conner’s workhorse role, he should see enough volume to hit the over

New York Jets WR Garrett Wilson Under 4.5 Receptions -135

The New York Jets, with Justin Fields as their quarterback, are expected to lean heavily on a run-first offensive approach. Fields, known for his inconsistent passing accuracy (career 60.3% completion rate and 38.7% on-target throw percentage in 2024), struggled to connect with receivers, especially under pressure. This limits Wilson’s target volume (9 per game in 2024), as Fields often opts for scrambles or checkdowns to running backs like Breece Hall. Wilson averaged 5.9 receptions per game in 2024, but reaching today’s O/U is going to be difficult.

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NFL Free bet | Titans vs Broncos prediction | Sep 7 2025

ASA’s NFL Free bet – UNDER 16.5 Titans TEAM TOTAL vs. Broncos, 4:05pm ET

We don’t see the Tennessee Titans exceeding 16.5 points against the Denver Broncos in their Week 1 matchup.

Denver’s defense, which led the NFL with a franchise-record 63 sacks in 2024, is a nightmare for Tennessee’s shaky offensive line.

Rookie QB Cam Ward, making his NFL debut, faces a brutal test against a unit that ranked 3rd in scoring defense allowing 19.0 points per game, top 10 in nearly every passing defense category and were near impossible to run on allowing 4.0 yards per rush (2nd).

On average it took teams 17.1 yards gained to scored 1-point which was 2nd best in the NFL last season. Denver also had the best red zone defense allowing opponents to score a TD on just 44.44% of their attempts.

The Broncos also allowed the second-fewest yards per play (5.0) last season, stifling offenses in all facets.

Tennessee (Cam Ward) will be better offensively as the season progresses but to start it’s going to look like the offense that average just 18.2ppg a year ago (26th).

Denver’s home-field advantage and aggressive blitz scheme is going to make it extremely tough for the Titans to get to 17-points. Bet the Titans team total under 16.5.

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Free CFB Bet | Texas vs San Jose State | ASA breaks it down

#324 ASA Free CFB PLAY ON Texas -36.5 over San Jose State, Saturday at 12 PM ET

The Spartans could be in for a long day in Austin on Saturday.  Texas lost 14-7 @ Ohio State last week but they outplayed the Bucks on the field with a +133 total yard advantage. 

They also dominated the Buckeyes on the ground averaging 4.5 YPC to just 2.3 YPC for OSU.  The Longhorn defense was stellar limiting Ohio State to just 203 total yards on 3.7 YPP on the road. 

San Jose State lost at home 16-14 last weekend vs a Central Michigan team that was traveling across the country with entirely new systems on both sides of the ball.  How is this SJSU offense going to put up points on the road vs one of the best defenses in the country, and with extra motivation coming off a loss? 

Defensively, the Spartans allowed the brand new CMU offense to average 5.7 YPP and put up 247 yards on the ground last week.  Now they face an angry offense that is ready to blow someone’s doors off after last week. 

While only scoring 7 points last week, Texas did put up 336 total yards and 170 yards rushing on one of the best defenses in the country.  Huge step down here taking on SJSU’s stop unit. 

The Longhorns similar type opponent non-conference home games last year vs Colorado State, UTSA, and UL Monroe, they outscored those 3 opponents 159-10! 

After hearing all week how they blew last week’s game vs OSU, they’ll want to run this one up and get QB Manning rolling with confidence.  Texas has UTEP on deck so no lookahead for them.  Lay it. 

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NFL Player Prop picks | Chargers vs Chiefs | Sept 5 2025

ASA Breaks down NFL Player Prop bets on the AFC West showdown between the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs game, Friday September 5t. Hook these three into 2-team player prop parlays on your fantasy betting sites. Watch for more winning NFL player prop bets weekly.

LA CHARGERS vs KANSAS CITY CHIEFS – PLAYER PROP BETS

1. Isiah Pacheco (Chiefs) – OVER 9.5 Receiving Yards
Pacheco, Kansas City’s dynamic RB, is a solid bet to exceed 9.5 receiving yards. In 2024, he averaged 15.2 receiving yards per game, catching 37 passes for 259 yards across 17 games. With Rashee Rice suspended for six games, the Chiefs will lean on Pacheco’s versatility in the passing game, especially on check-downs and screens. Patrick Mahomes targeted RBs on 18% of his throws last season, and Pacheco’s 7.0 yards per catch make this a low bar to clear. Bet: OVER 9.5 receiving yards (-110).

2. Justin Herbert (Chargers) – UNDER 21.5 Passing Completions
Herbert’s arm is elite, but the Chargers’ run-heavy scheme under Jim Harbaugh and a thin WR corps make the UNDER 21.5 completions appealing. In 2024, Herbert averaged 20.8 completions per game (354 completions over 17 games) on 34.1 attempts, with a 60.8% completion rate. The loss of key defensive personnel could lead to game scripts favoring the run, and rookie RB Omarion Hampton’s addition supports a ground-focused approach. Bet: UNDER 21.5 completions (-105).

3. Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) – OVER 0.5 Interceptions
Mahomes is a wizard, but the OVER 0.5 interceptions is a sneaky play. In 2024, he threw 11 interceptions across 17 games (0.65 per game), with a tougher 2025 schedule (Eagles, Bills) likely forcing riskier throws. Without Rashee Rice early, Mahomes may press, targeting less reliable options like Xavier Worthy. His 2.1% interception rate last season supports this prop, especially against aggressive defenses. Bet: OVER 0.5 interceptions (+120).

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NFL Player Prop Bets | Cowboys vs Eagles | Sept 4 2025

ASAwins breaks down the Thursday Night NFL game and player prop bets – Cowboys vs Eagles

Dallas Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb – OVER 6 Receptions

In 2023 the Cowboys threw the football 37.4 times per game, most in the NFL. Last season with Cooper Rush under center for 12 games (Prescott injured) they still attempted 37.5 per game. The Cowboys will struggle to run the football in this one so expect a 40+ drop backs for Prescott. Lamb should get plenty of opportunities in this game against the Eagles secondary, which is their defensive weakness. Lamb averaged over 10 targets last season and 6.7 receptions per game with a journeyman QB playing half the season.

Dallas Cowboy TE Jake Ferguson – OVER 3.5 Receptions

We know Dallas is going to throw the football a lot in this game and probably for the season. They lack a consistent running game and will rely on their passing attack with Prescott, Lamb and Pickens. The one guy that is going to benefit with the Pickens addition is Jake Ferguson. Ferguson is Prescott’s safety blanket or check down option when pressured. In 2023, Ferguson averaged 4.1 receptions per game and was targeted 102 total times. Last year he battled some injuries and played in just 14 games but still averaged 4.2 receptions per game.

Philadelphia Eagles RB Saquon Barkley – OVER 18.5 Rush Attempts

In the two games against the Cowboys last year Barkley had just 14 carries in the first meeting, then 31 in the second. We expect this game to be much more like the second clash from a year ago. In 16 games last season Barkley averaged 21.5 carries per game and the Eagles led the league in rush attempts per game at 36.7. The Cowboy’s defense was run on last season 28.4 times per game which was the 21st highest number in the NFL. Dallas also gave up the 4th most rushing yards per game so you can bet the Eagles game plan will be a heavy dose of the ground game. 

Best of luck with all of your player prop bets for Thursday and be sure to check back daily for more betting insights.

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