Author: Lee Kostroski

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NBA Free Bets | Hawks vs Pelicans | Nov 22

ASA free NBA bet on Atlanta Hawks -8.5 at New Orleans Pelicans, 7PM ET

The Hawks have lost two straight and will look to bounce back in New Orleans against one of the worst teams in the NBA. The Pelicans have the 2nd worst overall efficiency differential at minus -13.3, only ahead of the Wizards. New Orleans has the 5th worst offensive efficiency at 1.101PPP and the 29th defensive efficiency allowing 1.243PPP. In comparison the Hawks are 14th in dEFF, 13th in oEFF. Atlanta lost at San Antonio on Thursday but had won 4 straight on the road in their most recent road trip. Two of those road wins were against similar teams to the Pels (Kings, Jazz) and both of those wins games by double-digits. Going into Friday night the Pelicans had lost 7 straight games 5 of which were at home, and all 5 came by more than this spread. New Orleans is 1-7 SU at home with a negative average point differential of minus -12ppg. Atlanta 7-3 SU on the road this season and also benefit from a scheduling advantage as the Pels played Friday night. 

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NBA free bet | T’Wolves vs Suns | Nov 21

ASAwins free play on Phoenix Suns +3.5 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 9pm ET

I’m not so sure the T’Wolves should be favored on this court against the Suns.When you compare efficiency differentials the Suns are +5.3, the Wolves are +6.5 but Phoenix has faced a tougher schedule. On that note, both teams are 8-2 SU in their last ten games. In the Wolves 8 wins in that 10-game stretch – not one is against a team with a winning record. Phoenix hasn’t faced a tough schedule either but they do have a win over the Spurs in their last 10 and are coming off a win in Portland most recently. The Suns have an edge with their 7th best 3PT% going up against a T’Wolves defense that is 14th in defending the 3PT line. We also like the Suns advantage on the offense glass with the 9th best rebound % compared to the Timberwolves 15th ranked REB%. Phoenix is 6-2 on their home court with the 5th best scoring differential of +13.3ppg. Minnesota is 3-3 ATS as a road chalk this season. Take the home dog here.

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NHL free pick | Flyers vs Blues | Nov 20th

ASAwins NHL play on: Philadelphia Flyers -130 vs. St. Louis Blues – 7PM ET

The Flyers (9-6-3) welcome the struggling Blues (6-9-5) to Wells Fargo Center on Thursday night, and everything points to Philly cashing as -130 home favorites in a bounce-back spot. Scheduling is a massive edge: Philadelphia enters with three full days of rest after a 1-5 loss in Dallas on the 15th, while St. Louis is following an OT loss in Toronto on Tuesday —fatigue could hit hard against the Flyers’ high-tempo forecheck. Philly’s owned this matchup lately, ripping off three straight wins in the series, including a wild 6-5 shootout thriller on Nov. 14 in St. Louis where they outshot the Blues 31-17 despite the high score. The Flyers’ defense has been a brick wall league-wide, allowing just 2.83 goals per game (10th in NHL), compared to Buffalo’s leaky 3.84 GA/G (32nd-worst). Goaltending tilts Philly’s way too: Samuel Ersson (3-1-2, 3.30 GAA) gets the nod in net, backed by a unit that’s eigth-fewest in goals conceded (51 total), while Jordan Binnington (4-5-3, 3.34 GAA, .869 SV%) faces a Flyers attack that’s clicking at home (5-2-2). Computer models love the Orange and Black here (projected 4-2 final), and with the Blues ranking 30th in goals allowed, expect Philly to control and convert. NHL teams with 3+ days rest against an opponent on shorter rest hit at a 60% rate in 2024-25. Grab the Flyers ML at -130—puck drop 7 p.m. ET. 

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NHL free winner today | Oilers vs Sabres | Nov 17 2-025

ASAwins NHL free play on OVER 6.5 goal Edmonton at Buffalo, 7pm ET

Tonight’s Edmonton at Buffalo game is the clearest high-event spot on the slate, with the model projecting 7.2 total goals and finding an 8% edge on the Over 6.5 (currently -120 juice). Both teams rank top-8 in pace and expected goals over the last 10 games, Edmonton’s power play remains lethal on the road, and Buffalo’s goaltending has been leaky against high-danger chances. With the total shaded to the over at -20 already, the model still sees strong value pushing past 6.5 in what should be an up-tempo, mistake-filled affair in KeyBank Center. Edmonton on 5-1 run to the OVER, Buffalo OVER in 4 straight.

We try to post free picks as often as we can so be sure to check back daily for any free betting advice we may have for the day.

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NHL free bet | Sabres vs Hurricanes | Nov 8 2025

ASA NHL free bet: Under 6.5 Goals Buffalo Sabres at Carolina Hurricanes, 7pm ET

Fade the over in this lopsided matchup and back the Under 6.5 (-120 or better) with high confidence and a projected +7% edge. Carolina enters with the NHL’s stingiest defense (xGA/60 at 2.2, No. 1) and a top-5 penalty kill (85%) that has suffocated opponents all season, allowing just 2.69 goals per game. Buffalo’s road offense ranks bottom-10 (2.6 GF/G away) with poor shot quality and a regressing 9.0% shooting percentage, generating minimal high-danger looks against elite structures like Carolina’s.Goaltending seals it: Frederik Andersen/Pyotr Kochetkov the Hurricanes’ tandem sit top-10 in SV% (.915+), while Alex Lyon/Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen faces a barrage but benefits from Carolina’s low-event style. Ongoing injuries to key play-drivers (Slavin, Gostisbehere for CAR; Benson for BUF) further depress pace and transition chances.Our Poisson model spits out 5.5 expected goals (65% probability Under 6.5), crushing the implied ~58% after juice. Combined xG/60 clocks in at just 5.2—classic Carolina home trap game. Pound the Under; this one finishes 3-1 or 4-2 at the absolute ceiling.

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