Author: Lee Kostroski

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NHL free pick | Senators vs Canadians prediction | March 18 2025

ASA NHLfree pick on OVER 5.5 GOALS Ottawa Senators at Montreal Canadians, 7:07pm ET

For the Ottawa Senators, through 66 games, they’ve scored 194 goals and allowed 185 goals or 2.94 GF/GP and 2.80 GA/GP. For the Montreal Canadiens, through 66 games, they’ve scored 195 goals and allowed 214 goals: 2.95 GF/GP and 3.24 GA/GP.

In a head-to-head scenario, we typically model it as each team’s offense versus the other’s defense and factor in the efficiency rates for both teams. In this matchup our model is projecting 5.88 total goals being scored.

These two teams have met twice already this season with the Canadians winning both 4-1 and 5-2. In the last eight meetings one of the two teams has scored 4+ goals and all eight have finished with 5 or more total goals being scored.

Ottawa has played in three straight higher scoring games with 7, 8 and 6 total goals being scored. Montreal’s last three games have finished with 4, 9 and 6 total goals. Bet this Senators vs Canadians prediction OVER the total as today’s NHL free pick.

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NHL Free Bet | Lightning vs Bruins | March 14th 2025

ASA NHL Free play on OVER 5.5 GOALS Tampa Bay at Boston – 7:07pm ET

Boston has scored 3 or more goals in 4 of their last five games and they’ve allowed 6 goals in 2 of their last five. Tampa Bay has had some issues defensively allowing 4 or more goals in four straight games. The Lightning have also produced 3 or more goals in 3 of their last five and put up 6 goals twice. Tampa Bay is 2nd in the NHL in Goals for per game at 3.49, Boston is 25th a 2.72. Boston is allowing 3.15 goals against, the Lightning allow 2.69. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league is shots against so both should get plenty of opportunities to put shots on goal. In the last seven head-to-head meetings one of the two teams has scored 3 goals. In the last three meetings one team has put up 4 or more goals.  We are betting 6 or more goals get scored in this one.

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NHL Free Bet | Red Wings vs Sabres | March 12th 2025

ASA NHL Free Bet on Detroit Red Wings -135 vs. Buffalo Sabres, 7:35pm ET

The Red Wings are in a desperate situation here coming off 6 straight losses and slipping to 12th in the Eastern Conference. Five of those six losses are excusable as they came to good teams above them in the standings.

Tonight they face a Buffalo team that is 25-32 SU on the season, the 4th fewest wins on the year. Buffalo won the first meeting of the season between these two teams but the Wings have won the last two 2-1 and 6-5 in a shootout.

Detroit has a clear advantage defensively allowing 3.19 goals against compared to the Sabres who rank 30th in GA/G at 3.48. Buffalo has struggled on the road with a 9-18-3 SU record away from home and are coming off a big home win over Edmonton on Monday night.

In Detroit’s most recent loss they peppered Ottawa goaltender Ullmark with 49 shots but were unlucky producing just one goal.

We expect the offense to have another high-volume of shot attempts tonight which will lead to a solid home win and snap this losing streak. NHL Free bet on Detroit Red Wings

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NBA Player Prop Bet | LeBron James | Pelicans vs Lakers prediction

ASA NBA Free Player prop bet – LEBRON JAMES UNDER 42.5 POINTS+ASS+REBOUNDS

This could easily be a load management game for LeBron who is averaging over 34 minutes per game this season. The Lakers have a much bigger slate of games looming against the Knicks and Celtics so we estimate LeBron to play 30-33 minutes tonight against the Pelicans. In this minutes range LeBron is 6-2 UNDER tonight’s prop number of 42.5. Granted, the Pelicans are terrible defensively but if the Lakers do jump out big early don’t expect to see LeBron in the lineup late in the game. In the only meeting between these two teams this season, LeBron totaled 33 Pts+Rebs+Ass. Today’s NBA player prop bet is UNDER LeBron James Points+Rebounds+Assists.

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NBA Player Prop Bets | Suns vs Bulls | Feb 22 2025

NBA PLAYER PROP BETS FREE PICKS | Saturday, Feb 22nd 2025

ASA NBA Player Prop Bet – UNDER 20.5 POINTS – Coby White – Chicago Bulls

Chicago hosts the Phoenix Suns on Saturday and one player we expect to struggle scoring is Coby White of the Bulls. White has been UNDER his scoring prop in 3 straight games and UNDER 20.5 points in 10 of his last 15 games. He is averaging 18ppg on the season, shooting 43% overall and 37% from Deep. He averages 32.7 minutes per game and in games where he plays 30-33 minutes, he has stayed UNDER his scoring prop in 10 of the last twelve games. The Suns defense has done well against similar players to White in recent games holding opponents UNDER their scoring prop in 5 of the last six games. 60% of White’s scoring (excluding FT’s) comes from beyond the arc and the Suns 3PT% defense is 11th best in the league.

ASA NBA Player Prop Bet – OVER 30.5 POINTS + REBOUNDS – Nikola Vucevic – Chicago Bulls

We like Vucevic to have a big game against the Suns on Saturday. The Suns struggle to stop opposing Centers as they give up the 3rd most rebounds per game at 16.6 and allow the 4th most points per game at 23.5. Vucevic went through a slump right before the trade deadline as he was being shopped heavily but the Bulls. In his first game after the break against the Knicks he had a big Pts+Rebs game of 30 against New York. The significance of that number is that it came against a Knicks team that allows the 4th fewest Rebounds and Points p/game to opposing Centers. In two games against the Suns last season Vucevic had total Pts+Rebs of 32 and 36. We like him to go OVER 30.5 today.

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