Tag: Bracketology

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March Madness Moneyline picks | Bracket predictions | 2025

March Madnesss

We are breaking down the brackets for the NCAA tournament and making moneyline predictions. We looked back at last year and ran the numbers on the 10-14 Seeds and what the results would have been if you blanket bet all of those higher seeds on the moneyline. Here are the results for the 2024 1st round of the Tournament.

To calculate and summarize the outcome of betting on all the 10, 11, 12, 13, and 14 seeds on the moneyline in the first round of the 2024 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, excluding the First Four play-in games, we’ll focus solely on the main bracket for that year. Here’s the approach:

  • The 2024 NCAA Tournament had 64 teams in the main bracket after the First Four. There are typically four teams per seed (10, 11, 12, 13, 14) across the four regions, with the 11-seed potentially varying due to First Four outcomes. For this calculation, we exclude the First Four and use only the four 11-seeds in the main bracket.
  • Moneyline bets are wagers on a team to win outright, with positive odds (e.g., +300) indicating profit on a $100 bet.
  • We’ll use actual first-round results from 2024 and estimate typical moneyline odds based on historical trends, as exact odds for every game aren’t provided here.

Assumptions

  1. Number of Teams in 2024 Main Bracket:
    • 10-seed: 4 teams.
    • 11-seed: 4 teams (excluding First Four winners like Colorado and Boise State advancing as 10-seeds).
    • 12-seed: 4 teams.
    • 13-seed: 4 teams.
    • 14-seed: 4 teams.
    • Total teams = 4 + 4 + 4 + 4 + 4 = 20 teams.
  2. Bet Amount: $100 on each team’s moneyline in their first-round game.
  3. Typical Moneyline Odds: Based on historical trends for first-round matchups:
    • 10-seed vs. 7-seed: ~+135.
    • 11-seed vs. 6-seed: ~+175.
    • 12-seed vs. 5-seed: ~+250.
    • 13-seed vs. 4-seed: ~+350.
    • 14-seed vs. 3-seed: ~+600.
  4. 2024 First-Round Results: From the 2024 tournament (main bracket only):
    • 10-seeds: Nevada (lost to Dayton), Drake (lost to Washington State), Colorado (beat Florida), Colorado State (lost to Texas). Wins: 1.
    • 11-seeds: NC State (beat Texas Tech), Oregon (beat South Carolina), New Mexico (lost to Clemson), Duquesne (beat BYU). Wins: 3.
    • 12-seeds: James Madison (beat Wisconsin), Grand Canyon (beat Saint Mary’s), McNeese (lost to Gonzaga), UAB (lost to San Diego State). Wins: 2.
    • 13-seeds: Yale (beat Auburn), Charleston (lost to Alabama), Samford (lost to Kansas), Vermont (lost to Duke). Wins: 1.
    • 14-seeds: Oakland (beat Kentucky), Colgate (lost to Baylor), Morehead State (lost to Illinois), Akron (lost to Creighton). Wins: 1.
  5. Focus: First-round games only.

Calculation

  • Total Bets: 20 teams × $100 = $2,000 wagered.
  • Wins and Payouts:
    • 10-seed: 1 win (Colorado). At +135, payout = $100 × 1.35 = $135 profit. Total return = $135 + $100 = $235.
    • 11-seed: 3 wins (NC State, Oregon, Duquesne). At +175, payout = $175 profit per win. Total profit = 3 × $175 = $525. Total return = $525 + $300 = $825.
    • 12-seed: 2 wins (James Madison, Grand Canyon). At +250, payout = $250 profit per win. Total profit = 2 × $250 = $500. Total return = $500 + $200 = $700.
    • 13-seed: 1 win (Yale). At +350, payout = $350 profit. Total return = $350 + $100 = $450.
    • 14-seed: 1 win (Oakland). At +600, payout = $600 profit. Total return = $600 + $100 = $700.
  • Total Return: $235 + $825 + $700 + $450 + $700 = $2,910.
  • Net Profit: $2,910 – $2,000 = $910.

Summary

If you bet $100 on the moneyline for every 10, 11, 12, 13, and 14 seed in the first round of the 2024 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, excluding the First Four play-in games, you would have wagered $2,000 total. Based on the actual results and estimated odds, you’d have 8 wins (1 + 3 + 2 + 1 + 1), yielding a total return of $2,910. This results in a net profit of $910, or a 45.5% return on investment. The 2024 tournament showcased notable upsets, like Oakland over Kentucky and Yale over Auburn, driving higher payouts for lower seeds, while the 11-seeds’ strong performance (3-1) boosted the overall return. Actual profits could vary slightly with specific odds, but this reflects a solid year for betting underdogs in this range.

Can you find the higher seeds that are going to win outright this year?

Good luck in the NCAA Tournament this year!

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