Author: Mike Merlet

Posted on by

Free College Bets | Wisconsin vs Indiana | Nov 15

#344 ASA FREE COLLEGE BET – ON Indiana -29 over Wisconsin, Saturday at 12 PM ET

It’s not often we lay a huge number but this one is warranted.  Indiana has played only 3 Big 10 home games and they’ve won those by 53 points (vs Illinois), by 50 points (vs UCLA), and by 25 points (vs MSU). 

IU head coach Cignetti is not afraid to bury teams and he’s done just that at home.  The Hoosiers are undefeated at home since Cignetti took over at the beginning of last season and their average margin of victory in those games is +36 points. 

They are in the top 10 nationally in both total offense and total defense.  This offense has put up at least 30 points in 17 of their 23 games under Cignetti. 

The problem for Wisconsin is they can’t score.  They have only 4 total TD’s in their 6 Big 10 games and they haven’t topped 300 total yards in a conference game this season.  Last week they beat Washington at home 13-10 with 205 total yards and 48 yards passing, of which 24 came from their punter on a fake punt. 

It looks like true freshman Carter Smith will get his first ever collegiate start here.  That’s a rough spot for an inexperienced QB.  If Wisconsin can’t run the ball, they are in huge trouble. 

The IU defense allows just 83 YPG on the ground so Smith will have to somehow create some plays through the air.  The Badger defense has been very solid over the last few games but they are running into a juggernaut here as Indiana averages 548 YPG on 7.7 YPP at home this season. 

This one looks like another Hoosier home blow out. 

On sale products

Posted on by

College Basketball Free Bet | Tuesday, Nov 11th 2025

#632 ASA College Basketball Free PLAY ON North Dakota State -4 over Cal State Northridge (CSUN), Tuesday at 8 PM ET

This line opened NDSU +1 and now they are -4.  It was going to be a rated play at +1 but at -4 it’s now just an opinion.

CSUN is in a bad situational spot here playing their 3rd road game in 6 days.  They played @ Northern Iowa last Thursday (lost by 29 points), then played @ North Dakota on Sunday (won by 8) and now @ North Dakota State tonight.  CSUN is 2-1 on the season and probably ready to get back home to California after being gone for a full week (left last Wednesday).  The Matadors are coming off a 93-85 win @ North Dakota Sunday which wasn’t overly impressive.  UND is ranked as the worst team in the Summit League, basically tied with UMKC (per KenPom) and the 324th best team in the country.  The Fighting Hawks were just 12-21 last season and only won 5 Summit League games.  Now CSUN, just 48 hours later, faces one of the top teams in the Summit (NDSU rated 3rd best team in the league) and the Bison will be hungry for a win after starting the season 0-2 losing @ Oregon State by 2 and @ UC Davis by 12.  This will be their first home game of the season and unlike CSUN, they’ve had a full week off to get ready for this one.  After 2 games, the Bison are shooting just 15% from beyond the arc and we’d expect them to shoot much better at home tonight.  This team led the NATION in 3 point shooting last year hitting 40% of their triples so positive regression is likely tonight.  NDSU should get plenty of extra possessions on Tuesday as CSUN has been a turnover machine this year coughing it up on over 24% of their possessions while the Bison create turnovers on 22% of their defensive possessions.  NDSU, on the other hand, has done a nice job of taking care of the ball with just a 14% turnover rate.  They should also control the boards as they rank in the top 70 in both offensive and defensive rebounding while CSUN is outside the top 300 in both of those this season.  We like the hungry Bison to get this win at home.

On sale products

Posted on by

NFL Free Bet | Cardinals vs Seahawks | Nov 9 2025

#267 ASA FREE PLAY ON Arizona Cardinals +7 over Seattle Seahawks, Sunday at 4 PM ET

The Cards are on a nice little roll since Jacoby Brissett took over at QB.  They have covered 3 straight and took 2 of the NFL’s best teams (Indy and Green Bay) to the wire in close losses.  They’re catching Seattle a bit overvalued right now and at the top of their market in our opinion.  We’ve been pro Seahawks all season and won with them on a few occasions but this is a fade spot.  They’ve won and covered 6 of their last 7 games and this is just the 2nd time this season they’ve been favored by more than 3.5 points.  To put this number in perspective, the Seahawks were favored by the same number (-7 or -7.5) at home vs New Orleans a few weeks ago.  The Cards sit 12 spots ahead of the Saints via the DVOA metric yet we’re getting the same number.  Seattle is 2-2 at home this season (4-0 on the road) and their numbers here at Lumen Field as they average 53 fewer YPG and almost a full YPP less (0.8).  Three of their four home games have been decided by 1 score.  Since Brissett took over, the Arizona offense is averaging 357 YPG, 26 PPG, and they lead the league in 3rd down conversion rate during that 3 game stretch.  Prior to that with Kyler Murray at QB, the Cardinals were averaging 288 YPG and 20.6 PPG.  We think Arizona does enough to hang around here and cover this inflated number.  Take the points. 

On sale products

Posted on by

NCAAB Free bet | February 25th 2025 | Santa Clara vs Gonzaga

#668 ASA PLAY ON Santa Clara +6.5 over Gonzaga, Tuesday at 11 PM ET

The Zags lost at home vs St Mary’s over the weekend which locked up the West Coast Conference Title for the Gaels.  Gonzaga had won or tied for the WCC title in 11 of the previous 12 seasons and now that’s out of reach and we look for a letdown from the Bulldogs here.  Santa Clara is a dangerous home dog as they’ve only lost 1 conference game here and that was vs St Mary’s.  The Broncos have won 5 of their last 6 games including a 30 point win @ Washington State over the weekend.  They are the #1 shooting team in the conference (eFG%) and they lead the WCC on 3 point FG% as well hitting 40% of their triples.  At home they are averaging 84 PPG and allowing just 68 PPG on the season.  Gonzaga has 8 losses on the season of those have come away from their home court.  One of their losses at home came vs this Santa Clara team by a final score of 103-99.  The Zags actually shot better from the field in that game and made 4 more FT’s yet still lost at home.  They continue to be overvalued with an 11-18 ATS record on the season including covering just 5 of their last 21 games.  Even if Gonzaga musters up enough energy to play well here after their disappointing home loss on Saturday, we’re not sure they can pull away in this game.  We expect a tight battle with Santa Clara have a great shot at the outright win.  

ON SALE BETS

BETTING NEWS

Posted on by

Seattle Seahawks Preview | ASAwins NFL Win Totals

ASA’s NFC WEST WIN TOTAL PROJECTION

Seattle Seahawks – UNDER 7.5 Wins (+115)

The Seahawks finished last season with a record of 9-8 but they had a negative point differential (-38) and they were outgained by nearly 50 YPG.  Based on those stats alone, Seattle should have won only 7 games last season and that’s where we think they land in 2024 (7 or fewer wins).  They benefited from a positive turnover margin last season and only won 3 games by more than a TD in 2023 vs the 3 of the worst teams in the NFL, Carolina (2 wins last season), Arizona (4 wins last season), and the NY Giants (6 wins last season).  Six of Seattle’s wins last year came by 4 points or fewer or in OT and they were outgained in 5 of those tight 6 wins.  The offense finished 17th in points scored and 22nd in total yardage and we look for the Seahawks to regress on that side of the ball.  The offensive line is ranked 31st (out of 32 teams) by PFF heading into the season and QB Geno Smith took a big step back last season.  Smith had 10 fewer TD’s a year ago compared to 2022 and his completion percentage dropped by 5%.  They had very little running game last season (92 YPG rushing) and operating behind a poor Oline could be problematic for Smith and Company.  The defense allowed the 9th most points in 2023 along with the 3rd most yards gained by opponents despite finishing with a winning record.  Seattle has a new head coach, Mike McDonald, who has never been a head man at any level, so some growing pains are expected.  His coordinators are Ryan Grubb (OC) who has never coached in the NFL and Aden Durdy (DC) who has never been a DC in the NFL.  They faced the 11th most difficult schedule according to PFF and we look for this Seattle team to struggle in 2024.

On Sale Bets

Recent Betting Articles