Author: Mike Merlet

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Free Bet | Oklahoma State vs Texas Prediction | Dec 2

#310 ASA FREE PLAY ON Texas TEAM TOTAL Over 34.5 Points (vs Oklahoma State), Saturday at 12 PM ET

There are some 35’s and 35.5’s posted as well but 34.5 is still available as some sportsbooks.  We like the Longhorns to score at least 35 points in this game so we’re taking Texas OVER their TEAM TOTAL which is currently set at 34.5.  One key to this game is Texas absolutely needs style points so we expect them to keep scoring even if they do get a big lead (favored by 15 points).  They will most likely be one of many 1 loss teams fighting for a spot in the CFP Final 4.  The Horns already showed last week they’re fine with running up the score at this point beating Texas Tech 57-7 while scoring their final TD with just over 30 seconds remaining in the game.  They should be very successful on offense here facing an Okie State defense that ranks outside the top 100 nationally in YPG allowed, YPP allowed, rushing yards allowed, and passing yards allowed.  The OSU defense will have to pick their poison here as Texas is very balanced averaging 189 YPG rushing and 272 YPG passing.  The Longhorn offense has scored at least 30 points in 10 of their 12 games this year and in many of those they had big leads and no incentive to keep scoring which they do here.  They’ve also scored at least 35 points in 4 of their last 5 meetings vs Oklahoma State.  Perfect conditions with this game being played inside at the Cowboys home field.  Over 34.5 Points for Texas in this game is our play. 

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Free Bet | Boston College vs Miami Fl prediction | Nov 24th

#116 ASA FREE PLAY ON Boston College +10 over Miami FL, Friday at 12 PM ET

We expect Miami to be flat for this one.  They just put all of their physical and emotional effort into the last 2 weeks vs the top 2 teams in the ACC, FSU & Louisville.  The Canes lost both by a TD.  It’s going to be tough for this team, that has already qualified for a bowl game, to get up and go play in cold weather Boston (windy and wind chill in the 30’s at game time) over the Thanksgiving break.  U of M hasn’t been good on the road with a 1-3 SU record (only win @ Temple) and they’ve been a poor favorite this year going 2-5 ATS in that role.  Going back further they’ve been favored 22 times since the start of the 2021 season and covered only 6 of those games.  QB VanDyke played well in last week’s game but he is not 100% with a knee injury but was forced back into action when Emory Williams, who started vs FSU a week earlier, was injured.  BC had won 5 straight but did not play well the last 2 weeks losing to Va Tech and @ Pitt.  Their game vs Pitt was last Thursday so they’ve had extra time to get ready after a loss while Miami will be traveling on a short week.  Miami 2-5 in league play with wins by 3 & 8 points.  Miami just 10-13 SU record in ACC play since start of 2021 and only 3 wins by more than this spread (9 points).  We anticipate BC brings a great effort in their home finale coming of 2 straight losses.  This should be close so let’s back the Eagles as a free bet on Friday.

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Commanders vs Giants prediction – Oct 22nd

NFL FREE BET #462 ASA PLAY ON NY Giants +3 over Washington Commanders, Sunday at 1 PM ET

Giants are coming off a solid outing @ Buffalo giving the Bills all they could handle last week in a 14-9 loss.  NY outgained Buffalo in the game and had the ball 1st and goal at the Bills 1 yard line with a chance to win in the final seconds.  Veteran QB Tyrod Taylor had a solid outing and it looks like he’ll be under center again today as Daniel Jones recovers from an injury.  Washington won @ Atlanta last week but they were outplayed dramatically in the stats.  In that win the Commanders were -13 first downs, outgained 402 to 197, and 5.1 to 3.9 on a YPP basis.  They won the turnover battle 3 to 0 which was the difference in the game.  The Giants have covered 7 of the last 9 in this series and as a dog vs Washington they’ve covered 4 of the last 5.  We like the line value here as in their only 2 home games this year NYG was a 3 point dog vs Dallas and a 2.5 point dog vs Seattle, 2 teams ranked 10th and 11th per DVOA and now they are getting the same number vs a Washington team ranked 24th per DVOA.  We’re catching the Giants at the bottom of the market here but off a solid outing vs a high level team vs an overvalued Washington team.  Take the points.

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NFL FREE BET | OCT 1st 2023

ASA’S FREE NFL BET – OVER 46.5 DENVER BRONCOS AT CHICAGO BEARS, 1PM ET

Two terrible defenses going at it in this one will give both offenses plenty of opportunities. Denver ranks last in YPP allowed at over 7.0 and Chicago ranks 30th giving up 6.0 YPP. The Broncos defensively stats took a big hit last week allowing Miami to score 70 points but lets not forget the week prior they allowed Washington to score 35 points to a Washington team that scored 23 total points in their other 2 games vs teams not named Denver. Over 56% of opponents possessions vs the Broncos this season have either reached the red zone or scored prior to that which is the worst rate in the league. We think Chicago’s offense lays it all on the line here with nothing to lose and plays well. They thrive on the ground with their mobile QB Fields and Denver ranks 31st allowing 5.6 YPC on the season. In their only other home game this season the Bears put up 20 points on GB and we look for them to exceed that number today. Denver should have plenty of scoring opportunities as well. The Broncos offense has actually been solid averaging 5.7 YPP which is 8th in the NFL. QB Wilson is quietly having a solid season and he’ll be facing a Chicago secondary that ranks 30th in passing YPG allowed and 31st in yards per pass attempt. Chicago’s defense has allowed 27 points or more in every game this season and dating back to last year they’ve allowed at least 25 points in 13 consecutive games. Perfect weather here with temps in the mid 70’s and light winds. Both offenses should thrive in this one and we’re going Over the total.

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Big 10 Betting Breakdown | Sept 2nd Recaps

BIG 10 Betting Notes from Games played on SEPTEMBER 2nd – By ASA

NEBRASKA vs MINNESOTA (13-10 MINNESOTA WIN) – Minnesota scored 10 points in final 3:00 minutes to win by 3 / Nebraska with 4 turnovers – one in the endzone going into score and 2 others that led directly to 10 Minnesota points / Huskers averaged 5.2 YPP & Minnesota averaged 3.6 YPP / Huskers averaged 4.9 YPC and held Minnesota to 2.2 YPC / Nebraska QB Sims, transfer from Georgia Tech, had 11 pass completions and 3 interceptions

CENTRAL MICHIGAN vs MICHIGAN STATE (31-7 MSU WIN) – Big 10 Betting notes. The score was 10-7 at half / MSU outgained CMU by +3.0 YPP (6.3 YPP to 3.3 YPP) / Teams combined for just 8 of 32 on 3rd and 4th down / Spartans defense held CMU scoreless and just 63 total yards on the 2nd half

EAST CAROLINA vs MICHIGAN (30-3 MICHIGAN WIN) – ECU’s only points came on a FG as time expired / Michigan played without head coach Harbaugh and OC Moore who were suspended / QB coach Campbell called plays / Harbaugh will miss the first 3 games and Moore is back next week / Score was 30-0 with just over 9:00 remaining in the 3rd quarter and Michigan didn’t score again / Could have been worse as 2 of Michigan’s final 3 possessions after taking a 30-0 lead ended in a missed FG and shutout on downs at the ECU 1 yard line

OHIO STATE vs INDIANA (23-3 OSU WIN) – IU with only 153 total yards on 2.8 YPP / Hoosiers new QB’s, Jackson and Sorsby with only 9 completed passes combined / IU crossed midfield 3 times in the game / OSU All American WR injured his shoulder in the first half and did not return / After averaging 44 PPG (2nd in the nation) and 491 YPG last season, the Buckeyes put up only 23 points on 380 total yards / New OSU QB McCord was 20 of 33 for 239 yards and 1 interception – his back up Brown only played a few snaps

WEST VIRGINIA vs PENN STATE (38-15 PSU WIN) – PSU HC Franklin obviously knew what the spread was – PSU had ball at WVU 5 yard line with only a few seconds remaining (up 31-15) and instead of taking a knee, they ran the ball in for a TD to cover the 21 point spread / PSU dominated outgaining West Virginia 7.3 YPP to 4.5 YPP / WVU defense did hold the potent Penn State rushing game to 145 yards on 35 carries – 4.2 YPC / New Nittany Lion QB Allar was 21 of 29 for 325 yards and 3 TD’s

BUFFALO vs WISCONSIN (38-17 WISCONSIN WIN)– Big Ten Betting notes on the Badgers and their new up tempo. air raid offense ran 71 plays on Saturday after averaging 66 plays per game (107th nationally) / The 71 offensive snaps in game 1 would have ranked UW right around 52nd in the nation last year / They ran the ball 40 times (314 yards) with 31 pass attempts (189 yards) as new OC Longo has said the offense is called “air raid” but he will take what the defense gives him and use what is working / Wisconsin’s opponent next week is Washington State and they ran 87 offensive plays under new OC who came over from Western Kentucky / Wisconsin led just 14-10 at half but scored points on 4 of their 5 second half possessions with the only other possession ending in an interception / Wisconsin averaged 7.1 YPP & Buffalo just 4.4 YPP

UTAH STATE vs IOWA (24-14 IOWA WIN) – Iowa won the game by 10 points but they were outgained 329 to 284 (4.5 YPP to 4.1 YPP) and outrushed 116 to 88 (4.8 YPC to 2.2 YPC) / New QB McNamara was 17 of 30 for 191 yards and 2 TD’s / Iowa scored 14 points on their first 2 possessions and they just 10 points on their final 10 possessions / Hawkeyes had 156 yards on 7.4 YPP on their first 3 possessions and then averaged only 3.4 YPP after that / Over their final 10 possessions, Iowa had only 2 that lasted more than 6 plays and they punted 7 times / on a sidenote, OC Brian Ferentz has a clause in his contract that if Iowa averages 25 PPG or more and wins at least 7 games, he gets a fairly large bonus – they put up only 24 on USU so not a great

FRESNO STATE vs PURDUE (39-35 FRESNO WIN) – Purdue led 28-17 with 7:00 remaining in the third quarter and Fresno then scored TD’s on 3 of their last 4 possessions / Fresno outgained Purdue 487 to 363 but the Bulldogs also ran 82 offensive plays to just 60 for Purdue – so Boilers actually outgained FSU 6.0 YPP to 5.9 YPP / One of Purdue’s TD’s was a 98 yard kickoff return / Purdue’s new QB Card, transfer from Texas, was 17 of 30 for 254 yards and 2 TD’s / Fresno’s first lead of the game came in the 4th quarter and their game clinching TD came on a 22 yard pass with 59 seconds remaining in the game

TOLEDO vs ILLINOIS (30-28 ILLINOIS WIN) – Toledo won the MAC Championship last season / Toledo outgained Illinois 416 to 374 bur also ran 18 more offensive plays so the Illini actually outgained the Rockets by nearly 1.0 YPP (6.1 to 5.2) / One of the Illini’s TD’s was a 48 yard pick 6 and their game winning FG came with 5 seconds remaining in the game / New Illinois QB Altmyer, transfer from Ole Miss, was 18 of 26 for 211 yards, 2 TD’s and 1 interception / Toledo had a conversion rate of 53% on 3rd & 4th down (9 of 17)

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