Author: ASA Inc

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Green Bay Packers Total Win prediction 2022

By ASA – Green Bay Packers Total Win Prediction 2022 – OVER 10.5 WINS

Did you know Green Bay has the 2nd most overall victories at 782 in league history? The Packers are going to add to that win total this season with 11 or more wins. Scheduling has a lot to do with it as they play in a weak NFC North Division.

No other team in the NFC North had a winning record last season and only Minnesota has had a winning record in the past three years.

                               2021       2020       2019

Vikings                 8-9          7-9          10-6

Bears                     6-11       8-8          8-8

Lions                      3-13-1   5-11       3-12

The Vikings and Bears have new coordinators in place and are completely changing their defensive schemes so expect slow starts for both. We do expect the Lions to be improved this season, but they are not a threat to Green Bay at the top of the Division.

Looking closer at those three other NFC North teams, none were in the top half of the league in overall (offensive/defensive) efficiency stats. The Packers were 8th overall in the NFL.

The Packers have won 13 games the previous three seasons with an average Margin of Victory at Plus +5.1PPG. Last year the Pack won 13 regular season games and the last game of the year versus Detroit was a meaningless loss.

Green Bay is nearly unbeatable at home with a 22-2 SU at home the previous three seasons so expect another 7 or 8 victories as the home team (one game against the Giants is in London).

Last season they owned a top 10 defense and expectations they’ll be better this year even with the loss of ZaDarius Smith (Vikings). The Packers drafted two Georgia (#1 in NCAA last year in D) defensive players (Walker, Wyatt) who expect to make an immediate impact.

The rushing offense was below or around league average in most key rushing categories, but it should be one of the better units in the NFL with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillion toting the football.

The Packers WR’s will be a question mark with the loss of Adams but they still have capable receivers in: Lazard, Cobb and Sammy Watkins. They drafted Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, who has had outstanding preseason camp and is our longshot offensive rookie of the year bet at 100-1. The question we ask is this: Do the wide receivers need to great for Aaron Rodgers or does Rodgers throw those guys open? In the last three years Rodgers has 12,416 total passing yards, 111 TDs / 13 INT’s and a 72% completion percentage.

The Packers were underdogs just 4 times last season and won all 4. We have them favored in 14 of their games this season and would predict losses at Tampa Bay and Buffalo. Other than those two teams the Packers face a very winnable schedule which ranks 22nd in SOS this season.

We like Green Bay to win more than 11 games.

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ASA Detroit Lions Wins prediction – 2022

Be sure to check out all the winning options ASA has to offer you this football season. Let over 60 combined years of handicapping experience work for you this year. MORE INFO HERE…

ASA – OVER 6.5 WINS Detroit Lions 2022

The schedule is much easier this season ranking 23rd overall – last season they played one of the tougher schedules in the league and only won 3 games. The Lions start with a relatively easy slate and winnable games versus Philly and Washington at home, then go to Minnesota, then host Seattle who lost QB Wilson and is in for a down season. Detroit could realistically be 2-2, 3-1 or maybe even 4-0 at this point of the season. They also have winnable games versus: Miami (9-8), the Bears (twice) at the Giants, Jacksonville, Minnesota again, the Jets and Panthers who had a combined 53 wins last season.

The Lions should be much better offensively with the addition of WR’s St Brown and DJ Chark. They feature a solid running back duo of Swift and Williams and QB Goff should be much better in year two under Dan Campbell.

The team lost two starting offensive linemen to injury early on in Taylor Decker and Frank Ragnow but had a top 5-win rate at the line of scrimmage when all five starters were healthy. Other injuries took their toll as they lost receivers Quintez Cephus and Tyrell Williams, who were both projected as starters. Defensively the secondary was depleted due to injuries to Jeff Okudah and Ifeatu Melifonwu.

Detroit lost six one possession games last season, including three games on last second field goals by the opposing team. The fact that they were 11-6 ATS tells us they were undervalued last season and should make a big step forward this season.

Last season Statistics

Offense
Season StatsRank
Total Yards322.622
Passing Yards211.618
Rushing Yards110.919
Points Scored19.125
Turnovers2319
Defense
Season StatsRank
Total Yards379.829
Passing Yards244.724
Rushing Yards135.128
Points Scored27.531
Takeaway1919
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ASA – NFL Hall of Fame Game – Aug 4, 2022

ASA’s NFL PRE-SEASON HALL OF FAME GAME PREVIEW

LINE – Opened Las Vegas -1 and has been bet up to -2.5.  Total opened 33.5 and has been pushed down to 30.5

JACKSONVILLE JAGUAR NOTES – Starting QB Trevor Lawrence and back up Beathard will not play in this game.  3rd stringer Jake Luton, who has not taken a snap since 2020, will get the start.  Luton played some in Jacksonville’s 1-15 season in 2020 and finished the year with 2 TD’s and 6 interceptions.  He was then cut by the Jags and spent most of last season on Seattle’s practice squad.  Once he exits rookie Kyle Sloter from Northern Colorado will get the rest of the snaps so not much experience at QB for Jacksonville in this game.  The Jags will also be without their top 2 RB’s in this game, Etienne and Robinson.  Jacksonville was a disaster last year under head coach Urban Meyer who treated his players like college kids and had very little respect in the locker room.  They went 3-14 last year and had the worst point differential in the NFL at -204.  We expect a much improved Jacksonville squad and that’s what the oddsmakers feel as well with their win total set at 6.5 after just 3 wins last year.  They will take the field with a new head coach Doug Pederson who had solid success as Philadelphia’s head man, including a Super Bowl win in the 2017/18 season.  We think Pederson, who has been very good with QB’s, will do wonders for Lawrence this season.  Look for his numbers to improve drastically.  As far as the pre-season is concerned, Pederson has an 8-8 overall record as a head coach but in his first year at the helm for the Eagles he was 4-0 in NFLX telling us he may put some extra emphasis on winning in his first year in Florida.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS NOTES – In this NFLX game specifically, the Raiders should have the edge at QB.  No announcement yet on whether starter Derek Carr will play but his back ups are fairly experienced.  Nick Mullens has made a number of NFL starts in his career and has attempted over 600 passes.  Jarrett Stidham will also play and started a few games for the Patriots back in 2020.  Like the Jags, the Raiders also have a new head coach in Josh McDaniels, who has 2 years of head coaching experience with the Broncos in 2009 & 2010.  The Raiders were 10-7 last year and made the playoffs but their numbers didn’t support a team with that type of success.  They actually had a negative point differential of -65 which was 4th worst in the AFC despite their 10 win season.  Seven of their ten wins were by 4 points or fewer or in OT.  The Raiders actually were a perfect 4-0 in overtime games last season.  By our metrics they were probably closer to a .500 type team rather than a playoff squad.  McDaniels is a solid offensive mind who has always adapted very well to his QB strengths be it Tom Brady, Cam Newton, or Mac Jones.  The offense has added a few key pieces including GB WR Davante Adams and QB Carr is one of the underrated signal callers in the league.  The Raiders should be very good on that side of the ball.  In regards to the pre-season, Josh McDaniels had a 2-6 lifetime record but as with most 1st year head coaches, we expect him to want to win in the pre-season.   

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Scott Rickenbach free MLB July 17

Rickenbach MLB Sunday Free Pick OVER 9 in Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners @ 2:35 ET – Action on pitchers. This is a contrarian play…like so many of mine are! But the fact is I don’t care who the starting pitchers are here. I know Flexen has good numbers. I also know Otto is likely to struggle. Yesterday’s game between these teams totaled just 3 runs despite 17 hits. No matter the starting pitchers here (my play is action), note that Seattle has won 13 straight games and scored an average of 5.4 runs per game last 11 games. The Rangers have scored an average of 5.7 runs per game in the first 9 games of this 10-game homestand and the last two games were the first two times they have been held below 5 runs in any of these games! Free Pick OVER 9 in Texas.

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Kentucky Derby bet 2022

#10 Zandon at 3/1 odds

Who’d thought after the Blue Grass win, he’d be the morning line favorite in the Kentucky Derby at 3/1!

I texted a buddy a few weeks back and said you think Zandon will be less than 9/1 come Kentucky Derby, we both said yes around 5/6-1, I didn’t BITE and what a NUT kick now as Mike B., post him at 3/1!! Not let’s get down to business on Zandon, we CASHED big on him in the Blue Grass and our write-up and logic was spot on that afternoon.

Chad has babied this colt, one glaring thing I noticed last year, was going from that maiden win to the 1 1/8th Remsen, also not in those two races, he was a stalker and not a stone cold closer as he’s been as a 3yo.

Zandon’s stride is something remarkable and it’s really been on display of late in the mornings after his big Blue Grass win. He was right back working just 14 days after his big win in the Blue Grass and our “Keeneland Contact” stated his 48.3 work looked like a 46 flat and they couldn’t believe their watch that morning.

They stated he was “Under STOUT restraint” for 3/8th and finished like a beast! He then came right back 6 days later at Churchill and was even more impressive and that work has made him the morning line favorite for the Kentucky Derby.

He had no shot in the Risen Star when facing Epicenter for the first time, he was coming into that race off a 70+ days and shipping into NOLA without a comeback effort going 1 1/8th off works is tough to do.

Zandon then hopped at the start to put himself at a further disadvantage, but he did come with a powerful late run and got up for the show money as Smile Happy finished a half-length in front of Zando at the wire.

Risen Star Internal Fractions Internal Fractions first 1/4 mile — :24.15 second 1/4 mile — :24.92 third 1/4 mile — :24.18 fourth 1/4 mile — :24.33 final 1/8 mile — :12.10 final 3/8 mile — :36.43 – SERIOUS TURN OF FOOT

They decided to bypass the La. Derby and shipped into Lexington for the Blue Grass Stakes and Zandon ran that afternoon to our expectations! He gobbled up that field with ease and passed Smile Happy down the lane, like he was tied to the rail! The second most impressive win, we’ve seen during the Triple Crown prep races.

Blue Grass Internal Fractions Internal Fractions first 1/4 mile — :25.04 second 1/4 mile — :24.25 third 1/4 mile — :24.48 fourth 1/4 mile — :24.29 final 1/8 mile — :12.29 final 3/8 mile — :36.58 – Another serious finish!!!

No one was CLOSE to him on the gallop out! This is one serious colt and Chad has babied him since the Remsen, one big eye catcher from our POV, he wintered at Payson Park and that is a very deep surface and you can get fit big time when you continuously work over that surface.

Chad not once, ever thought about entering Zandon at Gulfstream Park, just right down the road, he decides to ship into the Big Easy for the Risen Star back to Payson and then ships to Lexington for the Blue Grass Stakes. He bypassed Florida all together with this colt as he knew he could get him fit working him at Payson and wanted to get two 1 1/8th races under his belt, before the Kentucky Derby.

Here’s a quote form Chad Brown about Zandon, after the Remsen! Chad Brown said, “As you know, I have NEVER stretched a horse out that far off just one six-furlong race, but this horse is freaky good and can win the Derby.” Zandon’s Thorograph projections is a beautiful site for those that use them as their speed # bible.

ZANDON #’S – “6 ½” to “4 ½” to “2 ½” to “1 ½