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NBA Player Prop bets – Oct 18

ASA NBA Predictions or Player Prop bets for Tuesday, October 18th 2022

We have a few NBA Player props for you on opening night in the NBA. We will tread lightly to start the season with our NBA predictions and get more indepth as the year goes on. Be sure to check out all of ASA’s BASKETBALL PACKAGES online here!

Philadelphia 76ers – James Harden OVER 5.5 REBOUNDS

James Harden averaged 7.7 rebounds per game during the regular season and 5.7 in the postseason. For his career, he is averaging 5.6RPG. The Celtics are going to pay a lot of attention to Embiid, Harrell, Tucker and Harris on the boards which will give Harden plenty of opportunities to snag easy rebounds. Harden was 3rd in the NBA last season in rebounds per game among shooting guards.

Boston Celtics – Marcus Smart OVER 12.5 POINTS

The 76ers will have to pay a lot of attention to the Celtics “big 2” of Tatum and Brown which means a few extra open looks for Smart who has shot it extremely well in camp according to our reports. Smart has averaged 12.1PPG, 13.1PPG and 12.9PPG in his last three seasons overall. In 7 of his last ten games a season ago in the playoffs he scored more than 12.5-points. He averaged 15PPG in his last ten games and that was against Golden State and Miami two of the better defensive teams in the NBA. In four games against the 76ers last season Smart averaged 12PPG and one of those games was a blowout in which he played just 12 minutes.

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NBA predictions by ASA for 2022-23

ASA’s NBA predictions Total Win bet, Futures and NBA wagers!

NBA predictions 2022-23

By ASAwins

Let’s break down the NBA and get our Future Bets or NBA predictions made before the season tips off on Tuesday. First off, we are coming off a record-breaking NBA season a year ago with over 90-Net Units of profit for the year. Our NBA wagers were 141-95 on the year when you include the free bets we posted here, and we finished with 28-14 STREAK in the post-season.

Typically, we don’t like to tie up a lot of money with future bets and would rather invest it during the regular season, but we do make an exception on a few wagers or these NBA predictions.

EASTERN CONFERENCE TOTAL WIN BET

UNDER 53.5 BOSTON CELTICS – “The hunters become the hunted!”

Boston won 51-games in the regular season a year ago but will have a tough time getting to that number in 2022-23. We still like the Celtics to be one of the best teams in the East but after getting to the NBA Finals a year ago they will have a target on their backs and get everyone’s best game night in and night out. Not to mention, the Eastern Conference is absolutely loaded this year. The Nets are healthy and will have a full complement of players this year including Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant and also get Joe Harris back from injury along with wild-card Ben Simmons. The Heat won 53-games last season and return their core of key personnel in Butler, Adebayo, Herro and Lowry, plus a healthy Oladipo. Milwaukee has one of the MVP favorites in Giannis Antetokounmpo and will be a contender again to win it all in 2023. Philadelphia has their own MVP candidate in Joel Embiid and James Harden. Any one of the previously mentioned teams can win the East this year. Now throw in a group of teams that will be mid-40 win teams: Raptors, Bulls, Cavaliers (added Donovan Mitchell) and you can see how tough every game in Conference play will be. Even some of the bottom teams in the East will be better than they were a season ago.

The Celtics have a fantastic core with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Al Horford, the Williams duo and recently added Malcolm Brogdon. The bench has depth with Derrick White, Payton Pritchard and 2nd year sniper Sam Hauser. We feel it will be tough though for the Celtics to duplicate last season’s impressive efficiency stats of 1.144-points per possession scored and .966-points allowed given the circumstances.

Yes, the Celtics are a serious title contender this season, but they’ll get everyone’s best this season and will slip slightly in the win column.

WESTERN CONFERENCE TOTAL WIN BET

OVER 49 DENVER NUGGETS – “The Joker gets help!”

This NBA wager is on the Over the projected win total for the Denver Nuggets. Last season the Nuggets finished 6th in the Western Conference and did it on the back of Nikola Jokic who put up 27.1PPG, 13.8RPG and 7.9APG with a 32.94 Player Efficiency Rating (best in the NBA). This season they get All-Star level guard Jamal Murray back along with instant scorer Michael Porter Jr. They also have power forward Aaron Gordon on the roster who is coming off a solid 15PPG/5.9RPG season. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is another key addition to this roster. Denver owned the 12th best average Margin of Victory in the NBA last season at +2.5PPG. They were 6th overall in offensive efficiency, 15th in DEFF. It certainly helps when the Nuggets play in the Northwest Division with a pair of bad teams in the Thunder and Jazz who may not win 49 games combined. The Nuggets have the easiest schedule in the NBA based on our metrics which include: 7 road games playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back and 5 home games the second night of a B2B. Both of those rank top 11 fewest in the NBA. The Nuggets have enjoyed one of the best home courts in the NBA in recent years where they win 70% of their games.

If Joker does what he does, and Murray/Porter Jr. can stay healthy this team could very well come out of the Western Conference.

NBA MVP LONGSHOT

Ja Morant – Memphis Grizzlies +1400

The Grizzlies finished 56-26 SU in the regular season a year ago and finished 2nd overall in the Western Conference standings. Memphis had the 5th best offensive efficiency rating at 1.147-points per possession and were 4th in DEFF allowing 1.090PPP. They were also 4th in net scoring differential at +5.7PPG. Memphis has an MVP candidate in Ja Morant who is clearly capable of taking over games by himself after averaging 32.1-points per 36-minutes. Morant is going to have to do more this season with Jaren Jackson Jr sidelined for 4-6 months. Morant was 18th in assists per game last season at 6.7 and was 4th in rebounds per game for guards at 5.7. He gets a ton of media attention with his high-flying style of play, will be on a playoff team and could be a league leader in several different categories. Ja Morant is worth a shot at +1400.

NBA Champion – Milwaukee Bucks +800

Other NBA wagers – Division Over/Under win totals

Atlantic Under 53.5 Boston Celtics

Southeast Over 35.5 Washington Wizards

Central Over 41.5 Chicago Bulls

Northwest Over 49 Denver Nuggets

Southwest Over 48.5 Memphis Grizzlies

Pacific Under 45.5 LA Lakers

MVP Winners

Favorite – Giannis Antetokounmpo +550

Mid-Range – Ja Morant +1400

Longshot – Devin Booker +2800



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Free Pick North Carolina vs. Duke – Oct 15th

ACC Rivalry Ruckus – @Duke +7 vs. North Carolina – 8:00pm ET – POINT TRAIN CONSULTING

The Tar Heels offense is averaging an ACC best 501 yards per game. Duke’s defense allows 380-yards per game. Despite their prolific offense the Heels have played in four 1-score games this season with an average Margin of Victory of just +6PPG. UNC’s defense is not good and the Duke rushing attack will exploit their weakness. The Blue Devils average over 190-rushing yards per game, UNC allows over 167-rushing yards which is 96th in the country. This UNC defense gave up +138 more yards to Miami than the Canes averaged going into their game last week. Prior to that this defense gave up 576-yards to Notre Dame and 431-yards to Georgia State which where both significantly higher than those teams season averages. Duke is coming off a close road loss to Georgia Tech who looks much better after firing their coach. Duke is 7-8 SU their last 15 at home, but they’ve been competitive in those games with an average MOV of -3PPG. We like the points here and the home dog in this big rivalry.

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Free college bet Utah vs USC – Oct 15th

Free college prediction on the Utah vs USC game by ASA

ASA play on: Utah -3.5 vs USC, 8PM ET

ASA’s free college bet. We like the scheduling situation with the Utes are coming off a disappointing loss at UCLA 42-32 while USC is off a big home win over Washington State 30-14. Both offenses fairly even with the Utes averaging 6.6-Yards Per Play, USC averages 6.6YPP. Utah has a slight edge defensively as the UTES give up 316YPG compared to the Trojans 351.5YPG allowed. A big reason USC is 6-0 SU is that they have feasted on Turnovers this year with 15 takeaways, but Utah doesn’t turn it Over with 5 TO’s on the season. Utah also has an offense capable of keeping the Trojans offense off the field as they convert 48.48% of their 3rd down attempts which is 16th best in the nation. Home field will play an important role in the outcome of this game as the Utes are 23-2 SU, 16-9 ATS at home since 2018. In that stretch of 25 games, they have won by an average of 20.8PPG which is the 11th best MOV in that time frame. The home team is also 8-3 the last eleven meetings between these two schools. The Trojans have not been a great underdog with as 5-9 ATS their last fourteen as a pooch. They’ve also lost those games by an average of -11.1PPG. The line on this game is the tell with the Utes favored by over as field goal. Since 2015 teams that are 6-0 and an underdog to a team with a minimum of two losses are 3-12 SU. Free college prediction on the Utes!

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Free NFL play Bills vs. Ravens prediction – Oct 2

#257/258 ASA PLAY ON Over 50 Points – Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Bills total vs Miami closed 54 or 55 and we were on that Over.  This week it’s just 51 when our numbers have it similar to last week’s closing total.  The Bills are the constant here so comparing Miami with Baltimore, the Ravens offense leads NFL in scoring (33 ppg) and efficiency scoring 1 point for every 11.5 yards gained and YPP at 6.9.  Those numbers are better than Miami’s offense.  The Ravens defense ranks 31st in YPP allowed 6.7, last in pass defense at 353 YPG (next worst is 297 YPG allowed), AND they allowed 68 points last 2 weeks vs Miami & New England.  After scoring 72 points in their first 2 games, the Bills had just 19 last week but gained 500 yards!  Buffalo crossed into Miami territory on EACH of their last 6 offensive possessions and scored only 3 points.  They had their chances to say the least.  The Ravens have scored 75 points in their last 2 games vs decent defenses (Miami and New England) and they should have success vs a Buffalo defense that remains very banged up especially in the defensive backfield where 5 of their 9 top DB’s (CB’s and safeties) are out or questionable.  Part of the reason this total is set lower than it should be is weather.  The remnants of Hurricane Ian could be in the area with possible rain and 10 to 15 MPH winds.  Something we’ll have to keep an eye on as we get closer to game time.