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WNBA Prediction Minnesota Lynx 2025: Why Over 26.5 Wins

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Minnesota Lynx 2025 WNBA Season Preview: Why Over 26.5 Wins – By ASA

The Minnesota Lynx are being undervalued in the 2025 WNBA betting markets, with a win total set at Over 26.5 wins. Coming off a stellar 30-10 regular season in 2024 that saw them reach the WNBA Finals, the Lynx return the core of their roster, including MVP contender Napheesa Collier. Bolstered by elite metrics from last season—third-best net rating (+8.0), fourth-best effective field goal percentage (51.8%), and third-best scoring differential (+6.4 PPG)—Minnesota is primed to dominate again. Here’s why betting the Over 26.5 wins is a no-brainer for the 2025 season.

2024 Recap: A Dominant Foundation

The Lynx were a powerhouse in the 2024 regular season, finishing with 30 wins and a 75% win percentage, second only to the New York Liberty. Their success was built on a balanced attack and suffocating defense, as evidenced by their elite statistical profile:

  • Net Rating: +8.0 (3rd in WNBA)
    Minnesota’s net rating, which measures point differential per 100 possessions, was among the league’s best, trailing only the Liberty and Las Vegas Aces. This metric reflects their ability to outplay opponents on both ends of the floor, a hallmark of championship contenders.
  • Effective Field Goal Percentage: 51.8% (4th in WNBA)
    The Lynx were highly efficient offensively, with an eFG% that accounted for the added value of three-pointers. Their balanced scoring attack, led by Collier’s versatility and contributions from guards like Kayla McBride (14.9 PPG, 38.7% 3P), ensured they maximized their possessions.
  • Scoring Differential: +6.4 PPG (3rd in WNBA)
    Minnesota outscored opponents by an average of 6.4 points per game, a testament to their ability to control games. They ranked fourth in offensive rating (103.5) and third in defensive rating (95.5), showcasing their two-way dominance.

The Lynx also excelled in clutch situations, posting a 15-5 record in games decided by five points or less, per WNBA.com stats. Their ability to close out tight games, combined with their statistical excellence, made them a formidable force. Despite falling to the Liberty in the 2024 Finals, Minnesota’s 30-win season was no fluke, and their returning roster suggests they’ll remain elite.

Continuity Is Key: Returning Core and Napheesa Collier’s MVP Case

The Lynx return the majority of their 2024 roster, including their starting five: Napheesa Collier, Kayla McBride, Courtney Williams, Bridget Carleton, and Alanna Smith. This continuity is a massive advantage in a league where chemistry and familiarity often separate good teams from great ones.

  • Napheesa Collier: The 28-year-old forward is coming off a career-best 2024 season, averaging 20.4 points, 9.7 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.9 steals, and 1.4 blocks per game on 49.2% shooting. Collier ranked third in MVP voting and earned All-WNBA First Team honors. Her two-way dominance—she’s also a Defensive Player of the Year candidate—makes her the engine of this team. Recent rankings from Her Hoop Stats place her among the top three players in the WNBA, and her performance in the Unrivaled 3×3 league (where she won MVP) signals she’s only getting better.
  • Supporting Cast: The Lynx’s depth is a strength. Kayla McBride provides elite shooting (38.7% from three), while Courtney Williams (8.5 assists per game) orchestrates the offense. Bridget Carleton (39.1% 3P) and Alanna Smith (1.5 blocks per game) add defensive versatility and floor spacing. This group’s cohesion, honed over a full season and playoff run, should lead to an even sharper start in 2025.

The only concern is health, Collier was the only starter to miss significant time in 2024. However, Minnesota’s depth and coaching under Cheryl Reeve—the 2024 WNBA Coach of the Year—mitigate this risk. Reeve’s system maximizes player strengths, as evidenced by the Lynx’s top-tier metrics.

Why Over 26.5 Wins Is a Safe Bet

The Lynx’s 30-win season in 2024 sets a high bar, but the 26.5-win line feels disrespectful given their returning talent and statistical dominance. If this was last season, to hit the Over, Minnesota needs a 27-13 record or better in the 40-game season—a 67.5% win percentage. That’s a step back from their 75% clip last year, but well within reach for a team that hasn’t lost any key pieces. Now factor in they get 4-more games added to their regular season schedule in 2025 which should make getting to 27 wins that much easier.

Consider the following:

  • Favorable Schedule Dynamics: Minnesota’s 17-3 home record in 2024 (best in the league) gives them a strong foundation. Winning 16-18 home games and splitting their road games (11-11) gets them to 27 wins.
  • Motivation and Experience: After coming up short in the Finals, the Lynx are hungry. Collier’s MVP candidacy and Reeve’s leadership ensure this team won’t rest on its laurels.

Final Prediction

The Minnesota Lynx are a championship-caliber team being slept on at Over 26.5 wins. With Napheesa Collier leading an MVP-caliber campaign, a cohesive roster, and elite metrics like a +8.0 net rating, 51.8% eFG%, and +6.4 PPG scoring differential, they’re built to win 27-30 games in 2025. Bet the Over with confidence—Minnesota is ready to prove the doubters wrong.

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WNBA Free Bet | Lynx vs Sun | Sept 17th 2024

ASA WNBA free bet on Connecticut Sun -1 vs. Minnesota Lynx, 7PM ET

**GET A SALE PRICED PLAYOFF PACKAGE TODAY!* AS OF THIS POSTING ASA IS KILLING IT IN THE WNBA THIS SEASON WITH A CURRENT 24-10 STREAK AS OF SEPT 17TH. O/U BETS ARE ON AN INSANE 16-4 RUN!

This is a big game for both teams as they sit 2nd and 3rd in the overall playoff standings. The Lynx have a 2 game lead over the Sun with two games remaining. Minnesota has the Sparks on deck so even if they split, they will lock up the 2-seed if the Sun goes 2-0.

We have Minnesota graded slightly higher than NY as the best team in the W. With the #2 seed essentially locked up we expect them to rest players and get ready for a playoff run.

Connecticut mathematically can move up to the #2 seed (unlikely as the Lynx would have to lose 2 straight) or could fall to the #4 seed behind the Aces.

A letdown here by the Lynx would be understandable considering they are coming off a huge win against the Liberty on Sunday. The Sun are coming off a loss in Las Vegas and should be motivated here back at home.

Connecticut has won 4-straight in the series and 8 of the last ten. The Sun are 26-12 SU the last two seasons at home with an average +/- of +6.2PPG. Our WNBA free bet is on the Connecticut Sun to win against the Minnesota Lynx.

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WNBA Prediction | Sky vs Dream | 7/2/2024

WNBA Free Bet ASA play on Chicago Sky -1 at Atlanta Dream, 7PM ET

The Sky have been the more consistent team this season while the Dream have had their ups and downs, much of which is related to injuries. Atlanta was without Jordin Canada (ave’d 13.3PPG, 6.0APG last year) for most of the season but she has returned for 3 games but hasn’t been the same player. On the injured list now is Rhyne Howard who was averaging 15.4PPG, 4.5RPG and 3.4APG. After a 4-2 start to the season the Dream are now 3-8 SU their last eleven games. In this current 11-game stretch the Dream have the 3rd worst Net Rating in the league at -10.0. They have really struggled offensively with the worst Offensive Net rating of 92.2 and an EFG% of 42.7%. If we compare them to the Sky’s last eleven games we see a pretty stark contrast as the Sky have an overall Net Rating of minus -4.9. Chicago is 3-7 SU their last ten games but a look at who they’ve played says a lot with close losses to Minnesota, Las Vegas, Connecticut and New York who are some of the best teams in the league. On the season the Sky have a Net Point differential of minus -2.0PPG which is better than the Dream’s minus -4.5PPG. In a recent meeting the Dream beat the Sky by 9-points in Chicago but that was with Howard in the lineup who recorded a double-double in the game. We expect payback here with Chicago.

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WNBA Free Bet | Mercury at Storm | June 4th 2024

ASA’s WNBA play on OVER 166.5 Phoenix Mercury at Seattle Storm, 10PM ET

The Storm are the much better team when it comes to defense, ranking 3rd in defensive efficiency versus a Mercury team that ranks 11th. Offensively both teams average over 1.000-points per possession with the Storm averaging 84.5PPG, the Mercury score 80.4PPG.

A big influence for the Over wager on this game will be the pace of play as the Storm are the 2nd fastest paced team in the WNBA at 80.2 possessions per game, the Mercury are 3rd at 80.

Phoenix scores the majority of their points from beyond the 3-point line with 38.1 3PA per game, most in the league. Seattle does their offensive damage from inside the Arc with the 5th best 2PT% in the WNBA and also crash the O-boards hard with the 4th most OREB per game at 12.2. The Mercury allow 84.4PPG on the season, the Storm allow 80.3PPG.

The pace of play should be frenetic and the added scoring opportunities for both teams will make this a very high scoring game.  

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WNBA Free Bet | June 2nd, 2024 | Liberty vs Fever

ASA Free WNBA bet on New York Liberty -14.5 vs Indiana Fever, 7PM ET

The Fever are in a tough scheduling situation here after playing a physical game yesterday against the Sky. Indiana won 71-70 and are now playing the second leg of a back-to-back and 3rd game in four days. Indiana has played one of, if not the toughest schedule thus far in the league and were in this same situation a few weeks ago in Vegas. They lost that game by 19-points. New York is rested and playing their last home game before a 3-game road trip. The Liberty have the 3rd best Net Differential in the WNBA at +8.4 with the 3rd best ONR and 4th best DNR. This will be the 3rd meeting of the season for these two teams with the Liberty winning by 36 and 11 -points already. In the most recent clash, the Liberty were favored by -13-points and the Fever weren’t in this horrible schedule situation. Lay the points with New York.

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