Tag: Tommy Fleetwood

Posted on by

Ryder Cup Predictions 2025 | HUGE Payout on what Player?

RyderCupPredictions

ASAwins Ryder Cup 2025 Betting Advice Overview

The 2025 Ryder Cup prop bets at Bethpage Black (September 26-28) is shaping up as a high-stakes clash, with the U.S. as heavy favorites due to home advantage and depth, but Europe’s continuity and match-play prowess make them a live underdog. Based on expert analysis from several highly respected golf sources, the consensus leans toward a U.S. win but itโ€™s going to be close.

  • U.S. Edge: Home soil (U.S. won 8 of last 9 home Ryder Cups), superior depth in ball-striking stats (e.g., top-5 in SG: Total for Scheffler, Henley), and Bethpage’s length favoring bombers like DeChambeau. However, U.S. rookies (5 on team) could falter under pressure.
  • Europe’s Strengths: Defending champs with 10 of 12 from 2023 squad; elite foursomes record (e.g., 66% win rate for Fleetwood); McIlroy/Rahm in peak form (McIlroy’s 2025 Masters win, Rahm’s consistency).
  • Risks: Blowouts unlikelyโ€” Want a HUGE risk/reward bet? A Tie at +1100 offers a massive ROI.

General Strategy: Focus on player props over outrights (e.g., top scorers, session wins). Bet small on matchups once pairings drop; use live betting for momentum shifts.

Outright Winner Odds (via DraftKings as of Sept 22)

OutcomeOddsImplied ProbabilityExpert Notes
U.S. Win-14559%Strong home pick; 27-15-2 all-time U.S. record. Value if you shop to +100.
Europe Win+16538%Underdog value for retention (need 14 pts); 10 of last 14 wins.
Tie (Europe Retains)+11008%Rare but pays big; last tie 2018.

Top 4 Overall Points Scorer Props odds (Not our prop bets) (DraftKings)

PlayerOddsKey Stats/FormWhy Chalks
Scottie Scheffler (U.S.)+3002025: 6 wins, #1 SG: Total; Ryder: 2-2-3Undisputed world #1
Rory McIlroy (Eur)+6002025: Masters win, 4 victories; Ryder: 54.5% pts rateTalisman, but road woes (1-4-0 away singles).
Bryson DeChambeau (U.S.)+8502025: 2 majors; LIV bomber; Ryder rookieBethpage fit (long par-4s)
Jon Rahm (Eur)+9002025: Top-5 SG: Approach; Ryder: 62.5% ptsLIV form strong

ASAโ€™s Ryder Cup Prop Bet recommendations:

Team USA Point Score bets: (Draftkings)

  • Patrick Cantlay +900 Top USA Scorer โ€“ We like Cantlay here who should get enough volume of matches and he has a 3rd place finish on this course in the PGA Championship in 2019. Cantlay has two Ryder Cupโ€™s under his belt with a 5-2-1 record and is undefeated in singles. Ranked top 10 in clutch putts and late round scoring in 2025. We will also sprinkle in Cantlay for a Top 3 USA Finish at +230.
  • Russell Henley +225 Top 3 USA Scorer โ€“ Another great longshot here with Henley who has 10 Top 10โ€™s in 2025. He is 4th in SG Total this season and 14th in SG Approach to Green metrics. Henley is 2nd in proximity and finished 4th in money earned this season. Making his Ryder Cup debut is the unknown but clearly the oddsmakers like his chances considering heโ€™s the 3rd highest favorite behind Scheffler and DeChambeau.

Team Europe Point Score Bets: (Draftkings)

  • Tommy Fleetwood +450 Top European Scorer โ€“ Fleetwood got the โ€˜monkey off his backโ€™ with his Tour Championship win this season. He finished with 8 Top 10โ€™s on the Tour this season, only missing 1 cut. Fleetwood is 2nd in Strokes Gained this season and 6th in SG Approach to Green. Heโ€™s solid off the tee (25th driving accuracy) which is critical at Bethpage. Fleetwood was 7th in putting average this season and 5th in Par 4 field average. This might be our favorite bet of the weekend.

Session & Format Props to consider:

  • U.S. to Win Friday Foursomes: +145 – History: U.S. 7-1 in last 2 home foursomes.
  • Exact Correct Score: U.S. 15-13 (+1000) or 14.5-13.5 (+1000).

Key Statistics & Data for Analysis

Historical Ryder Cup Records (All-Time Team Format Since 1979)

TeamWinsLossesTiesHome WinsAway WinsLast 10 Home
U.S.91218/101/128 wins, 1 tie, 1 loss
Europe12915/127/102 wins (2012, 2018 away)

Format Breakdown (Last 5 Cups): Foursomes: Europe 25-15-5 (62% pts); Fourball: U.S. 22-20-3 (52%); Singles: U.S. 26-21-3 (55%).

Bethpage Black Fit: Par-71, 7,426 yds; favors long hitters (avg. winning score 2019 PGA: -7). Windy setup boosts accuracy (top SG: Approach key: U.S. ranks 1-5 in 7/12 players).

2025 Player Form & Key Stats (OWGR = Official World Golf Rankings. SG: Total Rank = Strokes Gained)

Team U.S. (Captain: Keegan Bradley)

PlayerOWGRSG: Total RankRyder Record2025 HighlightsBethpage History
Scottie Scheffler112-2-36 wins (incl. 2 majors); T2 OpenT12 2019 PGA
Xander Schauffele233-4-1T7 Open; rib injury earlyT5 2019 PGA
Bryson DeChambeau42 (LIV)Rookie2 majors; +4,000 yds drivesT9 2019 PGA
Collin Morikawa543-3-2T5 PGA; irons eliteT10 2019 PGA
Patrick Cantlay665-2-1T10 U.S. Open; clutch3rd 2019 PGA
Russell Henley75Rookie5 top-10s; accuracy kingT20 2019 PGA
Justin Thomas884-3-3T6 FedEx St. JudeMissed cut 2019
Harris English991-1-12 wins; steadyT28 2019 PGA
Sam Burns10100-1-1T5 BMW; putting hotDebut
Cameron Young11110-3-0T10 Tour ChampDebut
J.J. Spaun1212Rookie5 top-3s; breakoutDebut
Ben Griffin1313Rookie2 wins; T10 majorsDebut

Team Europe (Captain: Luke Donald)

PlayerOWGRSG: Total RankRyder Record2025 HighlightsBethpage History
Rory McIlroy338-6-5Masters win, 4 victoriesT10 2019 PGA
Tommy Fleetwood447-3-2FedEx Cup; 7 top-5sT10 (halfway) 2019
Jon Rahm55 (LIV)5-3-2Top-5 SG: ApproachT21 2019 PGA
Viktor Hovland664-2-3Valspar win, T3 U.S. OpenDebut
Ludvig ร…berg771-0-1T5 BMW; rookie starDebut
Robert MacIntyre882-0-17 top-10s; runner-up U.S. OpenDebut
Tyrrell Hatton994-3-1Hero Dubai win; T4 U.S. OpenT13 2019 PGA
Justin Rose10109-7-1T10 Open; vet presenceT25 (4 starts)
Matt Fitzpatrick11116-3-3T5 BMW PGA; precisionT28 2019 PGA
Sepp Straka12121-1-12 PGA wins; family focus8th 2019 PGA
Shane Lowry13133-4-2T5 Open; intangiblesT6 2019 PGA
Rasmus Hรธjgaard1414RookieMultiple DPWT winsDebut

Head-to-Head Insights

U.S. vs. Europe Away/Home: U.S. 8-1-1 last 10 home; Europe 0-5 away since 2012 (but 2012 miracle win).

Player Matchups to Watch: Letโ€™s hope Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau get paired up at some point this weekend. There have been words between these two players in the past and it could make for some great TV drama. DeChambeau is a fan favorite and will get heavy support from the crowd at Bethpage which could rattle Roryโ€™s cage in a head-to-head matchup.

For deeper dives, monitor pairings (announced coming Thursday) and best of luck at the Links this weekend.

On sale products

DAILY BETTING NEWS

Posted on by

Masters Betting Preview | 2025 | April 10th

MASTERSPREVIEW2025

2025 Masters Betting Preview by ASA

The 2025 Masters Tournament, set to tee off on Thursday, April 10 at Augusta National Golf Club, promises to deliver another thrilling chapter in golfโ€™s most prestigious event. With a star-studded field, a $20 million purse, and the coveted green jacket on the line, bettors have plenty of options to consider. From dominant favorites to intriguing longshots, hereโ€™s a comprehensive betting preview, including current odds for the top 10 players and a few longshot predictions.

Current Odds for the Top 10 Players

As of April 9, 2025, the betting odds reflect a mix of recent form, Augusta history, and star power. Here are the top 10 favorites according to the latest odds (sourced from various sportsbooks like FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetMGM):

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+400)
    The world No. 1 and defending champion is the clear favorite. Schefflerโ€™s two Masters wins (2022, 2024) and his relentless consistency this season make him a formidable force. However, his putting struggles (79th in one-putt percentage, 86th in strokes gained: putting) could open the door for others if he falters on Augustaโ€™s slick greens.
  2. Rory McIlroy (+650)
    McIlroyโ€™s quest for the career Grand Slam continues, bolstered by wins at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and The Players Championship in 2025. Despite his strong form, his Augusta record remains inconsistent, with two missed cuts in the last four years and a T22 in 2024, making his short odds a risky proposition.
  3. Jon Rahm (+1400)
    The 2023 Masters champion has been solid on the LIV Golf circuit, but his move away from the PGA Tour introduces some uncertainty about his preparation. At 14-1, heโ€™s a value play for those who trust his major pedigree and Augusta affinity.
  4. Ludvig ร…berg (+1600)
    The young Swede, now a proven winner on both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour, showed his mettle with a runner-up finish at the 2024 Masters. His length off the tee and precision make him a trendy pick at 16-1.
  5. Collin Morikawa (+1600)
    Morikawaโ€™s odds have tightened thanks to his elite ball-striking and a strong 2025 season. His T3 finish at the 2024 Masters suggests heโ€™s figuring out Augusta, making him a compelling option at this price.
  6. Xander Schauffele (+1800)
    Schauffeleโ€™s consistency in majors (heโ€™s rarely outside the top 20) and his length off the tee suit Augusta well. Heโ€™s yet to break through for a green jacket, but 18-1 feels like fair value for a player of his caliber.
  7. Bryson DeChambeau (+2000)
    The LIV Golf starโ€™s T6 finish in 2024 proved he can tame Augusta despite his unconventional approach. At 20-1, heโ€™s a polarizing but intriguing bet, especially if his short game holds up.
  8. Justin Thomas (+2200)
    Thomas brings major championship experience (two PGA titles) and a solid Masters track record (three top-12 finishes in his last six starts). His early 2025 form, including runner-up finishes at The American Express and Valspar Championship, supports his 22-1 odds.
  9. Joaquin Niemann (+2800)
    The LIV Golf standout has been a betting liability for sportsbooks (per X posts), with his length and approach play tailor-made for Augusta. At 28-1, heโ€™s a dark horse with upside.
  10. Hideki Matsuyama (+2800)
    The 2021 Masters winner remains a steady contender at Augusta, with his precise iron play and short game. His 28-1 odds reflect a solid but unspectacular 2025, though his history here keeps him in the conversation.

Who are a few Longshots to consider?

Case for Tommy Fleetwood at +4000

Tommy Fleetwood at +4000 is a bet worth serious consideration, supported by his Augusta track record, recent form, and expert endorsements. Hereโ€™s why heโ€™s a smart play:

  • Masters History: Fleetwood is entering his ninth Masters appearance with an impressive resume. Heโ€™s made the cut in seven of eight starts, including four top-20 finishes. His standout performance came last year with a T3 finishโ€”his best at Augustaโ€”proving he can contend on Sunday. Over the last eight years, heโ€™s also notched seven top-5 finishes in majors, showcasing his big-stage pedigree.
  • Skill Set: Fleetwoodโ€™s game aligns beautifully with Augustaโ€™s demands. His elite iron play (above-average strokes gained: approach) and accuracy off the tee give him an edge on a course that punishes wayward shots. While his putting can be inconsistent, his T3 in 2024 suggests heโ€™s capable of figuring out Augustaโ€™s tricky greens. His around-the-green play is also above average, a critical factor at a venue where scrambling often separates contenders from pretenders.
  • Recent Form: Though his T62 at the Valero Texas Open last weekend was a stumble (capped by an 81 on Sunday), itโ€™s an outlier. Fleetwood finished 16th or better in five of his first six starts this season, including a T5 at The Players Championship. This consistency indicates heโ€™s in form heading into Masters week, with the Valero result likely a blip rather than a trend.
  • Expert Backing: Renowned coach Butch Harmon recently tipped Fleetwood to win the Masters and emerge as golfโ€™s next global superstar (per a Mirror Sport exclusive on X). Harmonโ€™s endorsement carries weight, given his track record with major champions like Tiger Woods. Posts on X also highlight Fleetwood as a popular longshot, with betting previews noting his +4000 odds as offering value compared to sharper lines (e.g., Pinnacleโ€™s +3627).
  • Betting Value: At 40-1, Fleetwood sits in a sweet spotโ€”long enough to offer a significant return but short enough to reflect his realistic chances. SportsLineโ€™s model, which has nailed 13 majors, pegs him at 35-1 on FanDuel and projects value, while X posts show him as a top-5 liability for some books, suggesting sharp money is on him.

Fleetwood has yet to win a major, but his near-misses (including a runner-up at the 2018 U.S. Open) and his upward trajectory at Augusta make him a prime candidate to break through. A $10 bet at +4000 would return $400, and his odds for a top-10 finish (likely around +400 to +500) could be a safer hedge. If he can replicate his 2024 Masters performance and capitalize on a weak Sunday from the favorites, Fleetwood could don the green jacket on April 13.

Another consideration with longer odds: Corey Conners (+6000)

For those seeking a big payout, Corey Conners at +6000 stands out as a viable longshot. The Canadian has a stellar Masters record, with top-10 finishes in three of his last five appearances (T6 in 2022, T10 in 2021, T10 in 2020). His elite ball-strikingโ€”consistently ranking among the PGA Tourโ€™s best in strokes gained: approachโ€”suits Augustaโ€™s demanding layout. While his putting can be a liability, Conners has shown he can get hot on these greens, as evidenced by his past performances. His 2025 season has been quietly strong, with multiple top-20 finishes, and at 75-1, he offers tremendous value for a top-10 bet or an outright sprinkle. If he can avoid a cold putter, Conners could shock the golfing world and become one of the longest longshot winners in Masters history.

Final Thoughts

The 2025 Masters is shaping up as a battle between proven champions like Scheffler and McIlroy and a hungry chasing pack. Schefflerโ€™s favoritism is justified, but his putting woes and short odds make him a fade for some bettors. McIlroyโ€™s Grand Slam narrative is compelling, yet his Augusta struggles temper enthusiasm. For value, Thomas (+2200) and Niemann (+2800) stand out among the mid-tier, while Conners (+6000) is the longshot to watch. However, Tommy Fleetwood at +4000 combines form, course fit, and narrative into one of the best bets on the board. Whether youโ€™re chasing a big payout or playing it safe with a top-10 wager, this yearโ€™s Masters offers something for every golf betting enthusiast.

ON SALE BETS

BETTING PICKS