ASA’s NFC SOUTH PREDICTION – WIN TOTAL PROJECTION
NFC South Prediction – Atlanta Falcons – OVER 9.5 Wins (-130)
The Falcons won just 7 games last season yet their win total this year has jumped to 9.5. We believe that is warranted and even a bit light as our projections have them winning at least 10 games. They face the easiest schedule in the NFL according to PFF (including 9 home games) and we look for big improvement from their offense which averaged just 19 PPG last year but ranked in the top half of the NFL in YPG and YPP.
Their offense wasn’t efficient last season averaging just 1 point for every 17.7 yards gained (29th in the NFL) but they should rank much higher in that category this year with veteran QB Kirk Cousins at the helm. He will operate behind an offensive line that ranks in the top 5 in the NFL by most analysts and all 5 starters return from a year ago. The offensive weapons are very good with RB Robinson, WR’s London, Mooney, and Moore to go along with TE Pitts. This offense should be very good.
Defensively they were decent last year ranking in the top 10 in YPP and YPG allowed and if they are just average this year, the offense should be able to outscore opponents. Plus, new head coach Raheem Morris is a high level defensive mind so that side of the ball should be OK.
Atlanta has terrible turnover luck last season finishing with a -12 TO margin which was 31st in the NFL. It’s almost impossible to have a solid season in this league when your TO margin is that poor. We expect that to be much better this year with Cousins under center after last year’s Falcon QB’s (Ridder & Heinecke) combined to throw 17 interceptions.
The NFC South has been the worst division in football the last few years with Tampa finishing in 1st place with 8 wins (in 2022) and 9 wins (in 2023). Besides Atlanta, there isn’t a single team in this division expect to have a winning record. We like the Birds to take a big step this year and rule the NFC.
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