Tag: NFL picks

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NFL Player Props | Nov 23 | Week 12

ASA’s NFL PLAYER PROPS for Sunday, November 23rd

Drake Maye Over 253.5 Passing Yards – New England Patriots

Maye is averaging 258 passing yards per game and surpassed that mark in eight of his eleven games in 2025. Moreover, the Patriots bout with the Bengals currently has the highest point total of the weekend (51.5) with Joe Burrow possibly making a return to action. The second-year QB is leading the league in passing yards and gets a mouthwatering matchup against the league’s second worst pass defense on Sunday. OC Josh McDaniels has unlocked Maye’s potential, making him into a deadly accurate thrower, illustrated by his league leading completion percentage. All signs point to the Patriots continued domination as Maye keeps working toward a potential MVP award. 

Jonathan Taylor Over 90.5 Rushing Yards – Indianapolis Colts

Arguably the most talented running back in the league, Taylor is having himself a historic season. He leads the league averaging six yards per carry while also having the most attempts per game, equating to nearly 114 rushing yards per contest. The elite volume and efficiency are eerily similar to Saquon Barkley’s season in 2024 where he ran for over 2,000 yards. Indianapolis travels to Arrowhead stadium to face the Chiefs stout run defense, ranking ninth in rushing yards allowed per game. However, with the way the Colts ground game has been bulldozing opponents, JT will be hard to contain. Taylor has surpassed this line in four of the last five games, and will look to do so again. 

Rome Odunze Over 48.5 Receiving Yards – Chicago Bears

Odunze has had a solid sophomore season averaging 60 ypg, while becoming the number one option in Ben Johnson’s passing scheme. Caleb Williams has improved drastically this year, relying on Odunze for chunk plays. In week 12, Pittsburgh brings their league worst passing defense to Chicago in a huge matchup between division leaders. One would think Williams will have free rein to air it out in a possible shootout vs city nemesis Aaron Rodgers. Odunze has a 24% target share in the Bears offense and this pass heavy outlook sets up perfect for their big body receiver. This line is very attainable given what we have seen from the former top ten pick out of Washington. 

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NFL Free Bet today | Patriots vs Jets prediction | Sept 19 2024

POINT TRAIN NFL free bet today – Patriots vs Jets – Thursday Night Football

New England Patriots TEAM TOTAL UNDER 16.5 POINTS

RATING – Beer & Pizza

  • I can’t get involved with a team or side here as the jury is still out on Rodgers/Jets offense and the Patriots have key injuries on their offensive line.
  • I will sprinkle a few shillings on the UNDER in the Patriots team total.
  • New England has taken a very conservative approach offensively with the 8th fewest pass attempts per game. They run it at a very high rate and QB Brissett has just 270-total passing yards in two games.
  • The Pats will commit to the run early and often and if their defense can contain the Jets offense early on, they’ll be content to play field position and hope to win late.
  • New England has scored 3, 15 and 10-points in the last three meetings with New York.
  • I don’t see the Patriots scoring more than 2 touchdowns in this one.

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NFL Free Bet | Cardinals Prediction | Sept 8 2024

NFL free bet – ARIZONA CARDINALS Team Total OVER 20.5

Free pick brought to you by ASA

Let’s start with theBuffalo defense. The Bills defense slipped last season going from 2nd in 2022 to 12th in 2023 in our rankings when you factor in overall schedule and strength of opposing offenses face.

Arizona has some ups and downs last season but the Cardinals were  a much better team with a healthy QB Murray under center towards the end of the season. Arizona put up 24, 29, 16, 35 and 20-points respectively in their last five games.

Arizona will be much better offensively this season and have a legitimate receiving threat in rookie Harrison Jr. along with 3rd year TE Trey McBride. The Bills allowed 20+ points in 9 of their seventeen regular season games last season.

This team total has bounced around with betting tickets hitting this number so shop around and find that key number of 20.5 and bet it OVER.

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NFC South Prediction | Atlanta Falcons | 9-5-2024

ASA’s NFC SOUTH PREDICTION – WIN TOTAL PROJECTION

NFC South Prediction – Atlanta Falcons – OVER 9.5 Wins (-130)

The Falcons won just 7 games last season yet their win total this year has jumped to 9.5.  We believe that is warranted and even a bit light as our projections have them winning at least 10 games.  They face the easiest schedule in the NFL according to PFF (including 9 home games) and we look for big improvement from their offense which averaged just 19 PPG last year but ranked in the top half of the NFL in YPG and YPP. 

Their offense wasn’t efficient last season averaging just 1 point for every 17.7 yards gained (29th in the NFL) but they should rank much higher in that category this year with veteran QB Kirk Cousins at the helm.  He will operate behind an offensive line that ranks in the top 5 in the NFL by most analysts and all 5 starters return from a year ago.  The offensive weapons are very good with RB Robinson, WR’s London, Mooney, and Moore to go along with TE Pitts.  This offense should be very good. 

Defensively they were decent last year ranking in the top 10 in YPP and YPG allowed and if they are just average this year, the offense should be able to outscore opponents.  Plus, new head coach Raheem Morris is a high level defensive mind so that side of the ball should be OK. 

Atlanta has terrible turnover luck last season finishing with a -12 TO margin which was 31st in the NFL.  It’s almost impossible to have a solid season in this league when your TO margin is that poor.  We expect that to be much better this year with Cousins under center after last year’s Falcon QB’s (Ridder & Heinecke) combined to throw 17 interceptions. 

The NFC South has been the worst division in football the last few years with Tampa finishing in 1st place with 8 wins (in 2022) and 9 wins (in 2023).  Besides Atlanta, there isn’t a single team in this division expect to have a winning record.  We like the Birds to take a big step this year and rule the NFC.

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NFC North Prediction | Minnesota Vikings | 9-5-2024

ASA’s NFC NORTH WIN TOTAL PROJECTION

NFC North Prediction – Minnesota Vikings – Under 7.5 Wins (-150)

The Vikings lost 6 of their final 9 games last season after losing QB Cousins for the season with an Achilles injury.  Two of their three wins after Cousins injury came by a FG and they were outgained (YPP) in 6 of their last 7 games. 

Now with Cousins moving on to Atlanta, Minnesota will rely on journeyman QB Sam Darnold, who has a career record of 21-35 as a starter.

Defensively, they were atrocious defending the pass, which is obviously key in today’s NFL, ranking dead last in opponent completion percentage at over 70%.  They didn’t do much to upgrade the defensive backfield as their depth chart looks the same as last season with the exception of CB Griffin, who is expected to start despite playing in only 3 games with Carolina last season and has been on the decline since 2019. 

The struggling secondary won’t get much help from the defensive line which ranks 30th heading into the season per PFF.  This team may have to score in bunches to win games this year and we just don’t see that happening with their QB situation. 

The schedule won’t do them any favors either.  The Vikes will be facing the 5th most difficult schedule and their early slate is brutal.  After facing the NY Giants on the road to start the season (should be a pick-em type game), Minnesota faces San Francisco, Houston, Green Bay, NY Jets, and Detroit in succession and they’ll be underdogs in each of those games. 

The Vikings won 7 games last season and we just don’t see an improvement this year.  Under is the call.   

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