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Commanders vs Giants prediction – Oct 22nd

NFL FREE BET #462 ASA PLAY ON NY Giants +3 over Washington Commanders, Sunday at 1 PM ET

Giants are coming off a solid outing @ Buffalo giving the Bills all they could handle last week in a 14-9 loss.  NY outgained Buffalo in the game and had the ball 1st and goal at the Bills 1 yard line with a chance to win in the final seconds.  Veteran QB Tyrod Taylor had a solid outing and it looks like he’ll be under center again today as Daniel Jones recovers from an injury.  Washington won @ Atlanta last week but they were outplayed dramatically in the stats.  In that win the Commanders were -13 first downs, outgained 402 to 197, and 5.1 to 3.9 on a YPP basis.  They won the turnover battle 3 to 0 which was the difference in the game.  The Giants have covered 7 of the last 9 in this series and as a dog vs Washington they’ve covered 4 of the last 5.  We like the line value here as in their only 2 home games this year NYG was a 3 point dog vs Dallas and a 2.5 point dog vs Seattle, 2 teams ranked 10th and 11th per DVOA and now they are getting the same number vs a Washington team ranked 24th per DVOA.  We’re catching the Giants at the bottom of the market here but off a solid outing vs a high level team vs an overvalued Washington team.  Take the points.

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Seahawks vs Bengals Prediction – Sunday, Oct 15th 2023

ASA free bet on: #257/258 OVER 45 Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday 1PM ET

You should check the weather before betting this Over, but if the wind isn’t as bad as they are predicting this O/U number will move up dramatically. We have an opportunity to buy low here on the Bengals offense that has underachieved this season prior to last week’s game against the Cardinals. This Cincinnati offense is essentially the same unit that has been top 9 in scoring for two straight seasons at over 25.7PPG. QB Burrows was injured early this season, but he looked much better last week against the Cards throwing for 317 yards with 3 TD’s to 1 INT. He was also willing to push the ball down field completing 8 of 12 passes of 10+ yards. The Seahawks pass defense allows opposing QB’s to complete 68.5% of their pass attempts (25th), give up 6.8 yards per pass attempt (21st) and 280 passing yards per game which is 30th. Those numbers come despite facing Carolina and the Giants who have 2 of the three worst offenses in terms of DVOA in the league. In their other two games the Seahawks allowed the Rams/Stafford to throw for 334 yards and the Lions/Goff to complete 28/35 passes for 323 yards. Offensively we expect the Seahawks to have success against this Bengals defense and put up plenty of points on their own. Seattle is 13th in yards per rush at 4.4, the Bengals allow 5.3YPC (30th). Seattle averages 5.6YPP, Cincinnati gives up 5.9YPP (25th). The Hawks are averaging 27.8PPG on the year,6th most and face a Bengals D giving up 22.8PPG (20th). This game should be a back-and-forth affair with plenty of points by both teams.

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NFL FREE BET | OCT 1st 2023

ASA’S FREE NFL BET – OVER 46.5 DENVER BRONCOS AT CHICAGO BEARS, 1PM ET

Two terrible defenses going at it in this one will give both offenses plenty of opportunities. Denver ranks last in YPP allowed at over 7.0 and Chicago ranks 30th giving up 6.0 YPP. The Broncos defensively stats took a big hit last week allowing Miami to score 70 points but lets not forget the week prior they allowed Washington to score 35 points to a Washington team that scored 23 total points in their other 2 games vs teams not named Denver. Over 56% of opponents possessions vs the Broncos this season have either reached the red zone or scored prior to that which is the worst rate in the league. We think Chicago’s offense lays it all on the line here with nothing to lose and plays well. They thrive on the ground with their mobile QB Fields and Denver ranks 31st allowing 5.6 YPC on the season. In their only other home game this season the Bears put up 20 points on GB and we look for them to exceed that number today. Denver should have plenty of scoring opportunities as well. The Broncos offense has actually been solid averaging 5.7 YPP which is 8th in the NFL. QB Wilson is quietly having a solid season and he’ll be facing a Chicago secondary that ranks 30th in passing YPG allowed and 31st in yards per pass attempt. Chicago’s defense has allowed 27 points or more in every game this season and dating back to last year they’ve allowed at least 25 points in 13 consecutive games. Perfect weather here with temps in the mid 70’s and light winds. Both offenses should thrive in this one and we’re going Over the total.

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NFL FREE BET | SEPT 10TH | Jags vs. Colts

ASA FREE NFL PREDICTION on the Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts, Sunday Sept 10th 2023

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS TEAM TOTAL – UNDER 20.5 POINTS

The Colts offense is in trouble! They are starting rookie QB Richardson out of Florida who only started 13 games with the Gators. It would be much easier for Richardson if he had RB Taylor in the backfield to take pressure off the passing game. Taylor led the league in rushing yards in 2021 but demanded a trade before the season and is now on the PUP list and out for four games. Indianapolis averaged just 17PPG last season which ranked 30th in the league. On average, it took them 18.3 yards gained to score 1-point which was also 30th. The Colts lacked explosiveness too with an offense that averaged only 4.8-Yards Per Play which was again 30th. The Jags made huge strides defensively last season allowing just 21.4PPG compared to 26.9PPG they gave up the season before. Jacksonville allowed 13.1-Yards per Point in 2021 (30th) and improved to 16.4-Yards Per Point allowed in 2022. It is going to be a long season for the Colts and we don’t see them scoring more than 20-points in this opener.

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