Tag: NBA predictions

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NBA Free Bet | Dec 19th 2025

ASA NBA Free bet – play on Cleveland Cavaliers -7 vs Chicago Bulls, 7:40pm ET

If you are a value numbers bettor then this play is for you. These same two teams just met on Wednesday in Chicago with the Cavs favored by -5.5 points. The Bulls won that game 127-111 but the line on the game is what has our attention, not the outcome. If Cleveland was favored by -5.5 in Chicago that means they should be at least -13 on their home court. In fact, the Cavs were just favored by -12.5 at home against the Hornets which is a fair comparison. Granted, the Cavaliers aren’t playing their best basketball right now but this team won 64 games a year ago with the best record in the Eastern Conference. The Cavs have a season long eDIFF (efficiency differential) of +2.7 which ranks them 11th best in the NBA. Cleveland is 45-17 SU their last 52 home games with an average MOV of +8.3ppg. Chicago is a below .500 team at 11-15 SU on the season with an eDIFF of minus -5 which is 23rd overall in the NBA. The Bulls are a slightly better than average shooting team at 47.1% on the season but had an uncharacteristically great night against the Cavs on Wednesday, hitting 56% from the field. Chicago is 4—9 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of -4.3ppg. The Cavs had won 5 in a row in this series prior to Wednesday and we expect them to get back on track tonight with a revenge win by double-digits.

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NBA Free bets | 76ers vs Bucks | Dec 5 2025

ASA NBA free bet on OVER 221. 5 Philadelphia 76ers at Milwaukee Bucks, 8pm ET

No Giannis – no problem for the Bucks tonight versus the Sixers. OK, let’s face it, it’s a massive problem in Milwaukee right now and the Giannis trade dilemma. But for tonight’s opponent we don’t feel his absence will pose as big a problem as the oddsmakers are suggesting with this low total. Milwaukee played well against the Pistons in a 113-109 home win on Wednesday night. The Bucks shot 49% and put up 113 points on the 2nd best defense in the NBA and now face a Philly team that is 15th in defensive efficiency ratings. The 76ers are coming off a low scoring game last night against the Warriors who were without their top two scorers (Butler, Curry) and shot horrendously at 42% overall, 29% from deep. The 76ers had score115, 134 and 121 in their three previous games before managing just 99 against the Warriors. In a similar scenario, as previously mentioned, the Warriors are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, the Bucks are in the bottom third. In the lone meeting earlier this season these two teams produced 237 total points but it took OT to get there. Last season in four meetings they averaged 244 total points per game. Our model is projecting 230.7 total points tonight. Bet OVER as tonight’s free bet.

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NBA free Player Prop Bet | Collin Gillespie | Dec 1

ASA NBA play on: UNDER 12.5 Pts – Collin Gillespie – Phoenix Suns

Gillespie has been shooting above expectations in recent weeks and has also seen an increase in his overall usage. That coincides with the injury to Grayson Allen who was out Nov 16th – Nov 28th. Gillespie went over this scoring prop in all 7 games playing extended minutes. As soon as Allen returned he managed to score 10-points against the Nuggets. When Gilliespie has played 28 or less minutes per game he has stayed UNDER this scoring prop in 12 of 16 games. The Lakers are better than average when it comes to defending PG/SG. With Allen taking away minutes we don’t see Gillespie getting over his scoring prop in this one.

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NBA free bet today | Bulls vs Pelicans | Nov 24th 2025

ASA free bet today on Chicago @ New Orleans Under 242½ 

Our NBA model is projecting a total of 235.1, dragged down by NOP’s anemic 109.7 offensive efficiency (oEFF – bottom-5 league-wide) facing Chicago’s 118 dEFF. The Bulls are one of the faster paced teams in the NBA but the Pelicans are one of the slowest. Chicago has not been great offensively either this season ranking 19th in offensive efficiency. H2H last season produced totals of 232 and 234 —Pelicans’ injury-riddled roster will have a tough time putting up points in this one and the Bulls have a few key injuries as well. Bet UNDER.

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NBA Free Bets | Hawks vs Pelicans | Nov 22

ASA free NBA bet on Atlanta Hawks -8.5 at New Orleans Pelicans, 7PM ET

The Hawks have lost two straight and will look to bounce back in New Orleans against one of the worst teams in the NBA. The Pelicans have the 2nd worst overall efficiency differential at minus -13.3, only ahead of the Wizards. New Orleans has the 5th worst offensive efficiency at 1.101PPP and the 29th defensive efficiency allowing 1.243PPP. In comparison the Hawks are 14th in dEFF, 13th in oEFF. Atlanta lost at San Antonio on Thursday but had won 4 straight on the road in their most recent road trip. Two of those road wins were against similar teams to the Pels (Kings, Jazz) and both of those wins games by double-digits. Going into Friday night the Pelicans had lost 7 straight games 5 of which were at home, and all 5 came by more than this spread. New Orleans is 1-7 SU at home with a negative average point differential of minus -12ppg. Atlanta 7-3 SU on the road this season and also benefit from a scheduling advantage as the Pels played Friday night. 

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