Tag: NBA free bet

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NBA free bet | T’Wolves vs Suns | Nov 21

ASAwins free play on Phoenix Suns +3.5 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 9pm ET

I’m not so sure the T’Wolves should be favored on this court against the Suns.When you compare efficiency differentials the Suns are +5.3, the Wolves are +6.5 but Phoenix has faced a tougher schedule. On that note, both teams are 8-2 SU in their last ten games. In the Wolves 8 wins in that 10-game stretch – not one is against a team with a winning record. Phoenix hasn’t faced a tough schedule either but they do have a win over the Spurs in their last 10 and are coming off a win in Portland most recently. The Suns have an edge with their 7th best 3PT% going up against a T’Wolves defense that is 14th in defending the 3PT line. We also like the Suns advantage on the offense glass with the 9th best rebound % compared to the Timberwolves 15th ranked REB%. Phoenix is 6-2 on their home court with the 5th best scoring differential of +13.3ppg. Minnesota is 3-3 ATS as a road chalk this season. Take the home dog here.

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NBA Free Bet | Knicks vs Bulls | Oct 31 2025

ASA NBA Free Bet UNDER 233.5 NY Knicks at Chicago Bulls, 8:10pm ET

Our model is projecting 221.6 total points being scored in this game and we couldn’t agree more with it’s findings. The Bulls have the 4th best Defensive Efficiency rating in the NBA allowing just 1.085-points per possession. The Knicks aren’t far behind allowing 1.120PPP (11th). The Bulls currently have slightly faster pace of play numbers but they’ve also faced four teams that prefer to play uptempo. The Knicks are the 24th slowest team in the NBA at 98.7 possessions per game so they’ll look to muck this game up. The Bulls currently have solid Offensive Efficiency numbers, but again that is impacted by their schedule. The Knicks are averaging 1.120-points per possession which ranks 24th in the league. New York is shooting just 40.6% on the season (28th) and hit just 33% from beyond the arc. The Bulls have solid shooting percentages but the four teams they’ve beaten this season rank 18th or worse in FG% defense, which has inflated those numbers. We like UNDER in this one as todays NBA Free Bet

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NBA free pick | Hawks vs Magic | Oct 24 2025

ASAwins NBA free pick on: Atlanta Hawks +5 at Orlando Magic, 7:10pm ET

This is a rematch from last season’s 7 vs 8 playoff meeting which the Magic won 120-95. Atlanta has a rebuilt roster and is expected by many experts to make a strong playoff run this season. The Hawks added Porzingis, Alexander-Walke and Kennard to the roster and also get Jalen Johnson back from injury, who was having an All-Star type season a year ago before getting hurt. Orlando also made a big splash in the offseason with the addition of Desmond Bane who will be a great fit for the Magic. These teams suffered different fates in their season openers with the Hawks getting blown out at home by the Raptors, while the Magic beat instate rivals the Miami Heat. We think it’s going to take some time for the Hawks to adjust to the new players on the roster while the Magic’s will be seamless. Orlando was 22-19 SU at home last season with an average +/- of +2.1ppg. Atlanta was 19-23 SU on the road a year ago with an average MOV of minus -1.1ppg. The home team won and covered the last three meetings between these two teams a year ago and the Magic own a 40-18 ATS record at home as a chalk dating back to 2023 with an average MOV in those games of +10.7ppg. We won’t bite on the revenge angle here and will lay the points with the Magic as today’s NBA free pick.

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NBA Player Prop Bet | Khris Middleton | Oct 22 2025

ASA’s NBA PLAYER PROP BET:

OVER 21.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists – Khris Middleton Washington Wizards

K-Midd returns to Milwaukee tonight to face his former mates and the team he played for 12 seasons. Middleton looked healthy in the preseason playing 20+ minutes in two games and he is tabbed a starter tonight for the Wiz. His usage should be 30+ minutes in this game with projected numbers of: 15 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists. Washington was the 4th fastest paced team in the NBA a year ago which means plenty of possession in this game against the Bucks, who were only slightly better than league average in Defensive Efficiency a year ago.

We expect a big game out of Middleton in his return to Milwaukee.

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NBA Free pick | Rockets vs Thunder | Oct 21 2025

ASAwins NBA Free play on UNDER 227.5 Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:40pm ET

The public has jumped on the OVER in this game but the handle is on UNDER. We like what the betting market is saying about this game and will put our money on a low scoring affair. Obviously that is not the only reason we like this game UNDER as our math model is projecting 224.3 total points. The Thunder were the best team in the NBA defensively during the regular season a year ago allowing just 1.075 points per possession. The Rockets were 4th best in that stat category allowing 1.107PPP. OKC was 6th in pace of play, but the Rockers were 17th. The Thunder were one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA a year ago, the Rockets were 13th. Houston made a huge trade in the offseason and brought in Kevin Durant but had to give up Jalen Green in the deal. The Rockets will be without Fred VanVleet for the season who was 3rd in scoring at 14.1ppg and led the team in assists. This team is going to be a match up nightmare for teams as they start 6’7 Amen Thompson then have four players all over 6’11. OKC is the defending Champ and odds on favorite to win it all again. They will however be without second leading scorer Jalen Williams for this game and could be missing Alex Caruso who was banged up in the preseason. We expect both offenses to be slightly behind the defenses to start the season and predict a game below 224. 

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