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NBA Playoff Series Prediction: Houston Rockets +1.5 Games vs. Golden State Warriors

Prediction: The Houston Rockets will win at least three games (+1.5 games @Draftkings) in their 2025 NBA Playoff first-round series against the Golden State Warriors. This prediction is based on the Rockets’ superior defensive efficiency, rebounding dominance, and ability to compete in a physical, low-scoring series, despite the Warriors’ playoff experience and offensive firepower led by Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler.

Rationale and Supporting Statistics:

Defensive Efficiency:

Houston Rockets: Ranked 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency for the 2024-25 season, allowing 109.6 points per 100 possessions. Their physical defensive identity, led by players like Amen Thompson and Dillon Brooks, has proven effective against elite guards like Stephen Curry. For instance, in their April 6, 2025, matchup, Thompson held Curry to 1-of-10 shooting, contributing to a 10-point Rockets victory.

Golden State Warriors: Ranked 8th in defensive efficiency with 111.2 points allowed per 100 possessions. While Draymond Green remains a Defensive Player of the Year candidate and Jimmy Butler adds versatility, the Warriors’ defense is less consistent against teams with strong interior presence and rebounding, areas where Houston excels.

Analysis: Houston’s top-tier defense is tailored to disrupt Golden State’s motion offense. Thompson’s ability to shadow Curry, combined with Brooks’ tenacity, gives the Rockets an edge in slowing down the Warriors’ perimeter game. The Rockets’ +10.1 net defensive rating differential with Thompson on the floor further underscores their defensive advantage.

Offensive Efficiency:

Houston Rockets: Ranked 12th in offensive efficiency with 114.2 points per 100 possessions. While not as potent as Golden State, Houston’s offense is bolstered by Alperen Şengün’s interior scoring and playmaking, alongside Jalen Green’s scoring outbursts. The Rockets’ ability to generate second-chance points through offensive rebounds (see below) compensates for their inconsistent three-point shooting (only Dillon Brooks shot above 36% from deep on significant volume).

Golden State Warriors: Ranked 16th in offensive efficiency with 113.7 points per 100 possessions. Despite Curry’s brilliance (e.g., 52, 37, and 36-point games against Houston earlier in the season), the Warriors’ offense can falter when Curry is contained, as seen in their April 6 loss where he scored just three points. Jimmy Butler’s addition helps, but his assist-to-turnover ratio (3.73) is down from his Miami days, suggesting integration challenges.

Analysis: Houston’s offense is less reliant on three-point volume, which is critical given their 16-13 record in games where they were outscored from deep. Golden State, conversely, struggles (7-16) when outscored from three, making Houston’s defensive focus on Curry a key factor.

Rebounding and Second-Chance Points:

Houston Rockets: Lead the NBA with a 31.7% offensive rebounding percentage, significantly ahead of the second-place Portland Trail Blazers (29%). This dominance translates to second-chance points, where Houston outscores opponents consistently. Their physicality, emphasized by coach Ime Udoka, allows them to control the glass against smaller lineups like Golden State’s.

Golden State Warriors: Rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentages, outscoring opponents by 43 points on second chances over their last three games before the playoffs. However, Draymond Green (6’6”) faces a size disadvantage against Şengün (6’11”), which could limit their ability to contain Houston’s interior presence.

Analysis: Houston’s rebounding edge is a critical factor in a series expected to be “physical and ugly,” with both teams combining for just 1 point per possession over their last four meetings. The Rockets’ ability to extend possessions will keep games close and increase their chances of stealing games.

Series Context and Head-to-Head Performance:

The Rockets and Warriors split their five-game season series, with Houston winning the most recent matchup on April 6, 2025, by 10 points at Golden State. Houston’s 15-2 finish to secure the No. 2 seed in the West demonstrates their late-season surge, compared to Golden State’s play-in tournament qualification as the No. 7 seed after a 124-119 overtime loss to the Clippers.

Houston’s 52-30 record and top-four rankings in both offensive and defensive efficiency make them the objectively better team, despite Golden State’s playoff pedigree. The Rockets’ youth (Jalen Green, Şengün, Thompson) is offset by veterans like Fred VanVleet and Brooks, providing balance.

Golden State’s experience, with Curry, Green, and Butler, is a factor, but their reliance on Curry’s offensive output makes them vulnerable if Houston’s defense continues to limit him. The Warriors’ 3-2 series edge is mitigated by Houston’s home-court advantage and

Conclusion: The +1.5 games spread implies Houston needs to win at least three games or lose the series 4-3, which aligns with their statistical advantages. Their elite defensive efficiency, league-leading offensive rebounding (31.7%), and ability to contain Stephen Curry with defenders like Amen Thompson give them a strong chance to win at least three games or this series outright. While Golden State’s experience and offense make them dangerous, Houston’s physicality and home-court advantage tip the scales. The Rockets were 29-12 SU at home this season with an average MOV of +6.7ppg. The Warriors did own an impressive road record of 24-17 SU with an average +/- of +4.4ppg but this is going to be a tough series to win against a Rockets team built to beat them.

Recommended Bet: Houston Rockets +1.5 games in the series