Tag: free picks

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Free College Basketball Bet | 3-9-24 | Wake Forest vs Clemson

#688 ASA PLAY ON Wake Forest -3.5 over Clemson, Saturday at 6 PM ET

Free college bet today from ASA. An absolute must win here for Wake at home and they are squarely on the bubble and out right now by most bracketologists.  A loss here would most likely end their dreams of getting invited to the Big Dance.  Add to that the fact the Demon Deacons are off a home loss, their first home loss of the season, and we love this situation. 

The Deacs are 15-1 at home (12-4-1 ATS) with a win over Duke included, and their 1 point loss at home on Tuesday vs Georgia Tech was their worst performance of the season so we look for a strong bounce back performance.  They shot just 42% in that game (they average 51% at home) and made only 25% of their 3’s (they average 42% from deep at home).  They have a PPG margin of +18 at home this season. 

The Tigers have been winning (7-2 last 9 games) but only 1 of their last 8 games have come against a team ranked in the top 8 in the conference.  They’ve played the 2nd easiest SOS in the ACC this season yet their adjusted efficiency margins are lower than Wake who has played the tougher league slate.  WF has lost 3 straight games since topping Duke here and that’s giving us some value as they are laying basically the same number vs Clemson (-3) as they were vs the Blue Devils.  In a must win spot we like Wake who has been nearly unbeatable at home as today’s free bet.     

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Free bet | George Mason vs Tennessee prediction | Dec 5th

ASA free play on: UNDER 137 George Mason at Tennessee, 6:30PM ET

The Volunteers are one of the very best defensive teams in college basketball under HC Barnes year in and year out and this season is no different. UT ranks 2nd in defensive efficiency ratings allowing .903 points per possession despite playing the 6th toughest schedule in college basketball. The Vols are coming off a game in which they allowed 100-points to North Carolina so we’re betting they will be in ‘lock down’ mode here against a very deliberate George Mason offense. The Patriots rank 331st in adjusted tempo and 301st in average possession length. GM is 313th in total field goal attempts per game at 55.8. They are above average in field goal percentage shooting, but they haven’t faced a defense of this quality and the Vols allow opponents to hit just 39.3% from the field. Tennessee isn’t a great shooting team themselves at 43.2% which ranks 256th and they are only slightly faster than average in pace. George Mason allowing 1.018 points per possession which ranks them top third in college hoops and they own the 37th best Effective FG% against.

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Free Bet – Air Force vs. Colorado State – Oct 28th

ASA play on: #162 Colorado State +14 vs. Air Force, 7:00PM ET

We are on the home dog here with the Rams plus the points in this rivalry as our free bet. The points are a premium here with the oddsmakers projecting around 46 total points being scored. Air Force has played three road games with wins at 0-8 Sam Houston State, at 3-5 San Jose State and 3-4 Navy. The Falcons have put up some impressive offensive numbers, but they’ve come against Utah State, San Jose State, San Diego State who all rank 91st or worse in total defense and Wyoming who is 73rd. Granted, Colorado State is bad defensively, one of the worst in college football, but they have given up the majority of their yards via the pass at 308 passing yards per game allowed. The Rams actually allow just 3.9 yards per rush which is around the national average. Air Force relies heavily on their running game which is best in the nation in rushing yards per game at 306. Colorado State is coming off a close loss against an improved 6-1 UNLV team where they managed 5.8 yards per play while allowing 5.9YPP. The Falcons are coming off a game against the option Naval Academy and now must travel to CSU to face an entirely different offense. The Rams complete 63.7% of their pass attempts which is 37th best in college football and complete 28.6 pass attempts per game for 336.4YPG which is 6th most in CFB. Last year the Falcons were favored by 22-points at home and won by 12. They are clearly over-valued here so let’s grab the live home dog with backdoor ability as today’s free bet.

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NFL Wager | Bills vs. Steelers | Aug 19th

NFL bet – POINT TRAIN WAGER Buffalo Bills @ Pittsburgh Steelers, Saturday 6:30PM EST

WAGER – BILLS 1ST HALF – ½ +105

RATING – Beer & Pizza money

·         Bills head coach has publicly stated he plans to play his starters for more than a quarter, so we know what to expect early on from Buffalo.

·         Buffalo head coach McDermott has a stellar preseason record of 12-5-1 ATS. He clearly has set a precedent for winning exhibition games.

·         The Bills are again a contender to win it all in 2023-24 and have a deep roster. Buffalo was a top offensive and defensive team a season ago ranking 2nd in total yards per game and 7th in YPG allowed.

·         Pittsburgh had solid defensive statistics a year ago ranking 12th in total DVOA but did give up 5.5 Yards Per Play which rank 20th.

·         The Steelers offense was 18th in offensive DVOA overall and lacked explosiveness, ranking near the bottom of the league in Yards Per Play at 4.9 (27th).

·         We feel this game will be a tale of two halves with the Bills winning the first half and depending on how it plays out, we would consider a bet on the Steelers in the 2nd half. Pittsburgh has a better late game QB situation with Rudolph and Trubisky fighting for the second spot behind Pickett.

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