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Free Bet | Michigan State vs USC | Sept 20 2025

ASAwins FREE BET – OVER 55: Michigan State Spartans at USC Trojans – 11 PM ET

This Big Ten showdown screams fireworks and we predict a shootout in the Coliseum late this evening. USC’s offense ranks No. 1 nationally in total yards (604 per game) and No. 2 in scoring (55 points per game), led by QB Jayden Maiava’s —989 passing yards, 6 TDs, and 0 INTs so far—while averaging a blistering 9.6 yards per play (tops in FBS).

They gashed Purdue for 460 yards without punting last week, leaving points on the table in a 33-17 win, and their 12.8 yards per pass attempt (No. 2) should provide explosive plays with WR Ja’Kobi Lane exploiting the Spartans secondary.

Michigan State’s secondary? A sieve, ranking 118th in passing yards allowed (273.3 YPG) and coughing up 25 completions per game through the air, with 5.4 yards per play surrendered overall (86th).

Flip to MSU’s side: Dual-threat QB Aidan Chiles has Sparty averaging 35.3 points per game, exploding for 42 and 41 in their last two outings behind a balanced attack (168 rushing YPG, 68th).

USC’s D, stout against the run (86.3 YPG allowed), ranks just 82nd in points allowed per play (0.4) and could bend under Chiles’ mobility.

ASA’s Models projects 62 in this Big Ten showdown.

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Free College Basketball Bet | Houston vs Kansas | Jan 25 2025

#765/766 ASA FREE BET ON Under 128.5 Points – Houston vs Kansas, Saturday at 6:30 PM ET

The 2 strongest units on each team are easily the defenses.  Both rank in the top 5 nationally in defensive efficiency and Houston ranks #1 in the country in PPG allowed while KU ranks #16.  Both defenses also match up very well vs the opposing offense.  Kansas does not shoot many 3’s (289th in 3 point attempts) so most of their work is done inside the arc.  Houston just happens to be the #1 defense in the nation defending inside the arc allowing opponents to make only 39% of their 2 point attempts.  On the other end, Houston makes 8.5 triples per game (111th) but the Kansas defense has been outstanding defending beyond the arc giving up just 28% which is good for 10th in the country..  Houston defense allows only 17.9 made FG’s per game which is ridiculous (1st nationally) while KU only allows 22 made FG’s per game (23rd best).  So in order to put up some points in this game, these teams better get to the FT line which we don’t see happening very often.  Houston ranks 334th in percentage of points from the FT line and Kansas ranks 364th (dead last) in that metric.  These teams have combined to play 34 games this season and 29 of them have gone Under the total.  Add another Under to the ledger here as we expect a low scoring, grinder type game.  

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Kansas State vs Colorado Prediction | October 12

ASA free bet on Kansas State -3.5 at Colorado, 10:15PM ET

Don’t be fooled by the Buffalos two most recent wins over vastly overrated teams in Baylor and UCF.

Colorado’s defense will be in trouble here against a K-State offense that averages 432YPG (43rd) and 6.9 yards per play (27th) and rushes it for 252YPG (8th) at a 6.9 yards per rush (2nd). The Buffs allow nearly 380YPG defensively overall, 156 rushing YPG (86th) at a 4.0 yards per carry average.

CU will be one dimensional here offensively as they can’t or won’t run the football. The Buffs rank 120th or worst in rushing YPG, rushing attempts p/game and Yards p/rush. Clearly the goal in Boulder is to throw it every down with QB Shedeur Sanders who is one of the better quarterbacks in the country but will he have enough opportunities?

The Wildcats will dominate the time of possession with their ground game.

K-State has historically been very good in conference play  with a 43-29-4 ATS record dating back to 2016. More recently, they are 24-13-3 ATS in Big12 action since 2020.  

We like Kansas State vs Colorado in this prediction.

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Miami Fl vs. California Prediction | Free Bet | 10-5-24

College Football Betting Preview: Miami Hurricanes vs. California Golden Bears Prediction

Date: Saturday, October 5, 2024Time: 10:30 PM PTLocation: California Memorial Stadium, Berkeley, CA 

Overview by ASA:

The Miami Hurricanes, riding a wave of offensive prowess and a 5-0 record, venture to the West Coast to face the California Golden Bears, who stand at 3-1 with a defense that has been the backbone of their season. This matchup pits Miami’s high-octane offense against Cal’s stingy defense, setting the stage for what could be one of the most intriguing games of Week 6.

Miami Hurricanes’ Offensive Firepower:

Miami has been nothing short of explosive, averaging 49.4 points per game, ranking them second in the nation. Quarterback Cam Ward has been phenomenal, throwing for over 300 yards in every game this season, supported by a dynamic ground game led by backs like Damien Martinez. The Hurricanes’ ability to score from anywhere on the field has been their hallmark, often putting games out of reach early.

California’s Defensive Wall:

On the flip side, California’s defense has been the talk of the town, limiting opponents to just 4.3 yards per play, showcasing a unit that’s disciplined, aggressive, and very much in the conversation for elite defensive status. This defense hasn’t allowed more than 14 points in a game this season, a testament to their ability to stifle offenses and keep games close.

The Betting Angle:

Spread: The line has been set at Miami -10.5, which reflects the bookmakers’ confidence in Miami’s offensive dominance. However, taking Cal +10.5 might be the smarter play here. The Golden Bears’ defense hasn’t faced an offense like Miami’s, but conversely, Miami hasn’t been challenged by a defense as formidable as Cal’s all season.

Why Bet on Cal +10.5:

Defensive Matchup: Cal’s defense will be the best Miami has seen this season. Their ability to generate turnovers (10 INTs, leading the nation) and their prowess against the run (3.2 yards per rush allowed) could keep Miami’s scoring under control more than expected.

Home Advantage: Playing in Berkeley, with its historically tough environment for visiting teams, could play into Cal’s hands. Cal as a home dog dating back to 2016 is 16-7-1 ATS, nearly 70% cover rate. Conversely, the Hurricanes are 9-10 ATS as a road favorite since 2018..

Offensive Awakening: Cal’s 9-points against Florida State in their last game is very misleading as the Bears put up 410 total yards of offense at 5.5 yards per play. Prior to the FSU game the Bears had scored 31,21 and 31-points.

Prediction:

While Miami’s high-powered offense could still put points on the board, expect Cal’s defense to make significant stands, potentially leading to a lower-scoring game than anticipated. If Cal’s offense finds any rhythm, covering the spread becomes increasingly likely. Coming off a loss two weeks ago and then a bye week, we like the Bears and the double-digits.

FREE Betting Pick: California +10.5.

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NFL Free Bet today | Patriots vs Jets prediction | Sept 19 2024

POINT TRAIN NFL free bet today – Patriots vs Jets – Thursday Night Football

New England Patriots TEAM TOTAL UNDER 16.5 POINTS

RATING – Beer & Pizza

  • I can’t get involved with a team or side here as the jury is still out on Rodgers/Jets offense and the Patriots have key injuries on their offensive line.
  • I will sprinkle a few shillings on the UNDER in the Patriots team total.
  • New England has taken a very conservative approach offensively with the 8th fewest pass attempts per game. They run it at a very high rate and QB Brissett has just 270-total passing yards in two games.
  • The Pats will commit to the run early and often and if their defense can contain the Jets offense early on, they’ll be content to play field position and hope to win late.
  • New England has scored 3, 15 and 10-points in the last three meetings with New York.
  • I don’t see the Patriots scoring more than 2 touchdowns in this one.

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