NFC SOUTH Prediction UNDER 7.5 WINS Carolina Panthers – Sept 5th 2023 – By ASA
NFL WIN TOTAL – UNDER 7.5 WINS CAROLINA PANTHERS -115
This is my least-liked NFL win total projection but in my opinion it’s the best of the NFC South. The Carolina Panthers have decided to ‘hitch their wagon’ to rookie QB Bryce Young as they’ve named him QB1 heading into the regular season. The 5-foot-10 200-pounder is undersized by today’s quarterback standards and even though he was a winner in college the transition to the NFL may not happen and will at a minimum take time. We didn’t see a lot of Young in the preseason but what we did see wasn’t overly impressive. He was 14 of 24 for less than 130 total yards and 1 TD. Carolina won 7 games last season in the NFC South but it will be tough to get to that number in 2023. In the South the Saints and Falcons are expected to be improved and Tampa still has a top 10’ish defense. The Panthers allowed 350.2YPG last season (22nd), 22PPG and 5.4-Yards Per Play which ranked them 17th in the NFL. Offensively the Panthers were 29th in the league in total yards per game at 306.2YPG. They averaged just 5.3-Yards Per Play (17th) and were last in the league when it came to converting 3rd downs at 3.8 per game. The Panthers had a net scoring differential of minus -1.6PPG (23rd). It doesn’t help that the Panthers have a below average offensive line by our metrics which will make life difficult for their rookie QB. The schedule isn’t terrible but the improvement by a couple of teams in the division will make it tough for the Panthers to get to 8 wins.
OTHER BETTING OPTIONS:
- BYRCE YOUNG UNDER 22.5 TOTAL PASSING TOUCHDOWNS -145 – This number opened 26.5 so we’ve lost some value but will still make an investment in this Under. Carolina was 12th in rushing attempts last season, were 13th in rushing TD’s per game and 10th in rushing TD percentage at 44.44%. Carolina was 28th in passing TD’s per game last season at 0.9 and 29th in passing touchdown percentage at 44.44%. The four QB’s for the Panthers last season threw 16 total touchdown passes. Don’t expect Young to get to 23.
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