NBA free bet today: ASA play on Miami Heat +5.5 vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 1pm ET
We are going to support the Heat plus the points in this one as we trust Miami head coach Spolestra to dial up a gameplan to get a home win in Game 3.
Miami played much better in the 2nd half of their last game, outscoring the Cavs 61-53 over the final 2 quarters of Game 2. The Heat won the rebound battle 38-34 and shot well at 52%.
The Cavs were dialed in from Deep by hitting 22-45 from beyond the Arc, but don’t expect shots to fall as easily on the road in Miami.
The Heat were home underdogs just 15 times this season and a profitable 9-6 ATS in those games with an average plus/minus of -3.7ppg (good enough for a cover here).
Cleveland was very good as a road chalk this season at 20-14 ATS but they are just 2-5 ATS in that role their last seven. Miami shoots it much better at home than they do on the road with the 4th best 3PT% on their home court in the NBA.
The Cavs road 3PT% defense ranks 18th. If the Heat are going to win a game in this series it could be this one. Regardless, we expect a close game and will grab the points.
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